10623 Red Orchid Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2023 4,238 sqft lot $189/sqft · at area comps Est $238k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to modern living in Desirable Wayside Village! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, built in 2023, seamlessly blends style and convenience. The open-concept layout fills the space with natural light, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The chef's dream kitchen boasts an oversized island, and premium finishes. Durable vinyl plank flooring in the main living areas and plush carpeting in the bedrooms offer comfort and style. Conveniently located with easy access to downtown and major highways, this home combines modern design, comfort, and accessibility. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity!

Key facts

• Chef's dream kitchen
• Oversized island
• Plush carpeting

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CHEF'S DREAM KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• DURABLE VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• PLUSH CARPETING
• EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (35.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 11650% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,951 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.57%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,995
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -1.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8206 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+1%)	0mo	$264,900	$210	78
10643 Red Orchid Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (+13%)	2mo	$240,000	$170	69
10315 Vinca Minor Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+14%)	1mo	$276,240	$196	65
7902 Elowen Grove Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+14%)	2mo	$277,290	$196	64
7914 Cassie Pine Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+13%)	0mo	$274,290	$196	64
7630 Yoe St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+4%)	2mo	$239,000	$184	64
7904 Cassie Pine Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+14%)	0mo	$281,040	$199	64
7918 Cassie Pine Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+14%)	0mo	$278,290	$197	62
11011 Ledford Ln	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,203 (-3%)	2mo	$170,000	$141	60
7321 Wiley Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,262 (+1%)	2mo	$179,900	$143	59
8203 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-14%)	1mo	$249,900	$232	57
7706 Lakewood Dr	0.37mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,084 (-13%)	1mo	$209,000	$193	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $72,370
• Equity at exit: $189,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $224,957
• Equity at exit: $385,622

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$526 /mo · $6,312/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,398

Max offer price $151,951

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-337	-5% $-404	+0% $-470	+5% $-537	+10% $-603
Rent	-10% $-613	-5% $-541	+0% $-470	+5% $-399	+10% $-328
Rate	-1.0pp $-352	-0.5pp $-410	base $-470	+0.5pp $-531	+1.0pp $-593

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	0.19mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	0.19mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	9d	1	0.27mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.30mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	0.49mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	0.67mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	0.75mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	7d	1	0.77mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	0.86mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	45d	1	0.89mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	16d	1	0.89mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	16d	1	0.89mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	26d	1	0.90mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	45d	1	0.91mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.04mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	3d	5	1.10mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	1.22mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	24d	1	1.23mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	1.30mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	45d	1	1.30mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	45d	1	1.30mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	45d	1	1.37mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	45d	1	1.37mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.46mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	1d	1	1.46mi
8600 Sterlingshire St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,050	$1.43	26d	2	1.46mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-05
   historical $1,850
2. 2026-05-02
   price $1,850
3. 2026-04-23
   price $1,900
4. 2026-04-03
   listed $2,000
5. 2026-04-02
   listed $235,000 Active 623-char remark

   Show marketing remark (623 chars)

   Welcome to modern living in Desirable Wayside Village! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, built in 2023, seamlessly blends style and convenience. The open-concept layout fills the space with natural light, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The chef's dream kitchen boasts an oversized island, and premium finishes. Durable vinyl plank flooring in the main living areas and plush carpeting in the bedrooms offer comfort and style. Conveniently located with easy access to downtown and major highways, this home combines modern design, comfort, and accessibility. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity!

6. 2025-04-02
   historical
7. 2025-04-02
   historical $1,850
8. 2025-03-25
   price $1,850
9. 2025-03-24
   price $229,500
10. 2025-03-11
    price $1,950
11. 2025-02-20
    price $235,000
12. 2025-02-19
    price $2,000
13. 2025-02-08
    listed $2,050
14. 2025-02-07
    listed $238,000 Active
15. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus Sold
16. 2023-05-15
    status Pending
17. 2023-03-21
    price $226,980
18. 2023-02-20
    listed $230,980 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,312 · $526/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,312 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$6,312
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,731
• − Management: −$1,731
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$9,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,345
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $229,500 HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-08 Listed for Rent $2,050 HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-21 Price Changed $226,980 HARMLS
• 2023-02-20 Listed $230,980 HARMLS

Property tax history

+180.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,312 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.