7901 Lake Shore Ct · Manchester, VA 23235

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,431 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1958 0.44 ac lot $154/sqft · 12% below area Est $424k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Midcentury home in the lake front community of Rock Creek Park! As you come up the paved drive, an impressive crape myrtle greets you on a beautiful private lot. The home hosts many good sized rooms & levels, a plethora of options. The main floor has a sizable living room with fireplace, dining & kitchen. Ascend a few steps to the first & second bedroom which share a full hall bath. A few more steps lead you to a third bedroom. The lowest level is the laundry & another full bath. Descend a few more steps to the Rec. room with fireplace - which really is two rooms divided by built-in storage/bookshelves & is the perfect in-law or guest space. This home could use some updates, but it has good “nuts and bolts” - hardwood floors under the carpet, new septic system, buried utility line, flip gutters, boiler approx 4 yrs old & Champion replacement windows approx 5 yrs old. Enjoy the privacy of the secluded backyard which backs up to the wooded area of VDOT & VA State Police. Or for only $25 a yr you have access to the lake across the road. Convenient to Bon Air shops, dining, grocery, Chippenham or Johnston Willis hospitals or quick access to I-195. Schedule a private showing today!

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1.5 car equivalent); Direct access; Off-street paved parking/driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story single-family home; Resale property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Built (existing structure)
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Fenced backyard with rear yard fencing; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (two on second floor, one in basement)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full finished basement; Basement includes a full bathroom with shower; Tub and shower in second-floor full bathroom; Two masonry, wood-burning fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Utility area in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#101 in VA, #3,202 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $297k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,325 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,852
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -11.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
654 Scarlet Oak Rd	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,335 (-4%)	4mo	$292,000	$125	61
8030 Post Oak Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,675 (+10%)	13mo	$475,000	$178	60
7710 Lake Shore Dr	0.29mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,122 (-13%)	0mo	$450,000	$212	58
8509 Summit Acres Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,204 (-9%)	5mo	$470,000	$213	52
1147 Joliette Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (-14%)	12mo	$400,000	$190	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-77,710
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-81,970
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23235

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,980/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,001

Max offer price $320,832

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
311 Karl Linn Dr North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1271	$3,416	$2.69	1d	21	1.10mi
8501 Woodward Dr North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,200	$1.20	23d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $375,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $375,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Coming Soon 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Coming Soon 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    historical $375,000 1237-char remark
16. 2023-12-06
    soldstatus $297,000 Closed 1249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1249 chars)

    Midcentury home in the lake front community of Rock Creek Park! As you come up the paved drive, an impressive crape myrtle greets you on a beautiful private lot. The home hosts many good sized rooms & levels, a plethora of options. The main floor has a sizable living room with fireplace, dining & kitchen. Ascend a few steps to the first & second bedroom which share a full hall bath. A few more steps lead you to a third bedroom. The lowest level is the laundry & another full bath. Descend a few more steps to the Rec. room with fireplace - which really is two rooms divided by built-in storage/bookshelves & is the perfect in-law or guest space. This home could use some updates, but it has good “nuts and bolts” - hardwood floors under the carpet, new septic system, buried utility line, flip gutters, boiler approx 4 yrs old & Champion replacement windows approx 5 yrs old. Enjoy the privacy of the secluded backyard which backs up to the wooded area of VDOT & VA State Police. Or for only $25 a yr you have access to the lake across the road. Convenient to Bon Air shops, dining, grocery, Chippenham or Johnston Willis hospitals or quick access to I-195. Schedule a private showing today!

17. 2023-12-06
    soldstatus $297,000

    Show marketing remark (1249 chars)

    Midcentury home in the lake front community of Rock Creek Park! As you come up the paved drive, an impressive crape myrtle greets you on a beautiful private lot. The home hosts many good sized rooms & levels, a plethora of options. The main floor has a sizable living room with fireplace, dining & kitchen. Ascend a few steps to the first & second bedroom which share a full hall bath. A few more steps lead you to a third bedroom. The lowest level is the laundry & another full bath. Descend a few more steps to the Rec. room with fireplace - which really is two rooms divided by built-in storage/bookshelves & is the perfect in-law or guest space. This home could use some updates, but it has good “nuts and bolts” - hardwood floors under the carpet, new septic system, buried utility line, flip gutters, boiler approx 4 yrs old & Champion replacement windows approx 5 yrs old. Enjoy the privacy of the secluded backyard which backs up to the wooded area of VDOT & VA State Police. Or for only $25 a yr you have access to the lake across the road. Convenient to Bon Air shops, dining, grocery, Chippenham or Johnston Willis hospitals or quick access to I-195. Schedule a private showing today!

18. 2023-11-07
    status Pending 1249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1249 chars)

    Midcentury home in the lake front community of Rock Creek Park! As you come up the paved drive, an impressive crape myrtle greets you on a beautiful private lot. The home hosts many good sized rooms & levels, a plethora of options. The main floor has a sizable living room with fireplace, dining & kitchen. Ascend a few steps to the first & second bedroom which share a full hall bath. A few more steps lead you to a third bedroom. The lowest level is the laundry & another full bath. Descend a few more steps to the Rec. room with fireplace - which really is two rooms divided by built-in storage/bookshelves & is the perfect in-law or guest space. This home could use some updates, but it has good “nuts and bolts” - hardwood floors under the carpet, new septic system, buried utility line, flip gutters, boiler approx 4 yrs old & Champion replacement windows approx 5 yrs old. Enjoy the privacy of the secluded backyard which backs up to the wooded area of VDOT & VA State Police. Or for only $25 a yr you have access to the lake across the road. Convenient to Bon Air shops, dining, grocery, Chippenham or Johnston Willis hospitals or quick access to I-195. Schedule a private showing today!

19. 2023-11-02
    listed $226,000 Active 1249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1249 chars)

    Midcentury home in the lake front community of Rock Creek Park! As you come up the paved drive, an impressive crape myrtle greets you on a beautiful private lot. The home hosts many good sized rooms & levels, a plethora of options. The main floor has a sizable living room with fireplace, dining & kitchen. Ascend a few steps to the first & second bedroom which share a full hall bath. A few more steps lead you to a third bedroom. The lowest level is the laundry & another full bath. Descend a few more steps to the Rec. room with fireplace - which really is two rooms divided by built-in storage/bookshelves & is the perfect in-law or guest space. This home could use some updates, but it has good “nuts and bolts” - hardwood floors under the carpet, new septic system, buried utility line, flip gutters, boiler approx 4 yrs old & Champion replacement windows approx 5 yrs old. Enjoy the privacy of the secluded backyard which backs up to the wooded area of VDOT & VA State Police. Or for only $25 a yr you have access to the lake across the road. Convenient to Bon Air shops, dining, grocery, Chippenham or Johnston Willis hospitals or quick access to I-195. Schedule a private showing today!

20. 1993-06-30
    soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,980 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,075 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$2,980
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,509
• − Management: −$2,509
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$10,428
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,503
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #3202

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 33,461
• Household income: $96,083
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 764.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.72%
• Current HPI: 294.1809
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+326.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $375,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Coming Soon $375,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $297,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-06 Sold (MLS) $297,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-11-07 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-11-02 Listed $226,000 CVRMLS
• 1993-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,980 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.