Is 5408 Kindred St in Rosenberg, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 1.7% cap rate and $-1,785/mo modeled cash flow at a $314,452 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 5408 Kindred St?

The modeled cap rate is 1.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,874/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 17.85

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Schools +2.4/10.0
Rent growth +2.3/5.0
Cash flow +1.6/30.0
Condition / age +1.0/5.0
1% rule +0.0/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$314,452

5408 Kindred St · Rosenberg, TX 77471

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,641 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 2-car garage $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

KB HOME SOON TO BE UNDER CONSTRUCTION - Welcome to 5408 Kindred Street, a beautiful single story home in the new community of Davina, zoned to Lamar ISD! This home sits on a premium lot that has no back neighbors and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an attached 2-car garage. Step inside to find a spacious open concept living space perfect for entertaining family and guests and never missing a beat. The kitchen showcases quartz countertops, an added breakfast bar, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, and rich Woodmont cabinets. The primary suite offers a private retreat with dual sinks and a generous walk-in closet, while the secondary bathroom features a vanity with knee space.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Premium lot
No back neighbors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (34.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (40.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $187k (40.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.5% in Rosenberg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1114 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,449 (40.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.40% ✗
Cap rate: 1.68%
Cash-on-cash: -16.49%
DSCR: 0.27
GRM: 20.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $463,897
List price: $314,452
Delta: -32.22%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1026 Junction Ct	1.49mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-0%)	23mo	$225,000	$138	45
1031 Harrisburg Ct	1.47mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-4%)	25mo	$229,900	$146	39
Sleeping Hills Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,957 (+19%)	21mo	$645,000	$330	38
1023 Santa Fe Ct	1.49mi	3/2.5	1,948 (+19%)	15mo	$219,000	$112	25
3246 Tilley Dr	1.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,869 (+14%)	35mo	$320,990	$172	13
3338 Tilley Dr	1.23mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,869 (+14%)	36mo	$329,990	$177	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -51.7%
Equity multiple: -0.50×
Total profit: $-194,290
Equity at exit: $69,169

10-year hold

IRR: —
Equity multiple: -1.59×
Total profit: $-336,543
Equity at exit: $40,109

Cash invested: $129,891 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 21 active · 13 under contract
Median asking: $274,990 ($158/sqft)
Median days on market: 20 d
This list price: 95% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +78.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77471

Home prices YoY: -19.3%
Rents YoY: -1.0%
Active inventory: 1114
Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,874 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,433
Tax est. 1.5%: −$580 /mo · $6,958/yr
Insurance: −$193
HOA: −$60
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
Net cashflow: $-1,785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,134

Max offer price $205,599

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,464	-5% $-1,625	+0% $-1,785	+5% $-1,945	+10% $-2,106
Rent	-10% $-1,933	-5% $-1,859	+0% $-1,785	+5% $-1,711	+10% $-1,637
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,551	-0.5pp $-1,667	base $-1,785	+0.5pp $-1,905	+1.0pp $-2,028

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $115,974
Closing costs: $13,917
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Lease considered
HOA & community: Association: King Property ManagementAnnual association fee of $725Community features: Curbs, gutters

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding constructionSlab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardFence (Back yard)Backs to greenbelt/parkSubdivisionConcrete road surface

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveDisposal
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor)Bedroom (First floor)Bedroom (First floor)
Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsDouble vanity
Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas)Central air (Electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryQuartz countertopsTub/showerWindow treatmentsKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsWindow coveringsENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $60/mo · $720/yr

Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

2026-10-07

days on market $314,452 Active 163 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $314,452 Active 162 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $314,452 Active 161 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $314,452 Active 160 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $314,452 Active 159 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $314,452 Active 158 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $314,452 Active 157 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $314,452 Active 156 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $314,452 Active 155 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $314,452 Active 154 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $314,452 Active 153 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $314,452 Active 152 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $314,452 Active 151 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $314,452 Active 150 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $314,452 Active 149 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $314,452 Active 148 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $314,452 Active 147 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $314,452 Active 146 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $314,452 Active 144 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $314,452 Active 143 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $314,452 Active 142 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $314,452 Active 141 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $314,452 Active 140 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $314,452 Active 139 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $314,452 Active 138 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $314,452 Active 137 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $314,452 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $314,452 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $314,452 Active 128 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $314,452 Active 126 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $314,452 Active 124 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $314,452 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $314,452 Active 122 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $314,452 Active 121 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $314,452 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $314,452 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $314,452 Active 118 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $314,452 Active 117 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $314,452 Active 116 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $314,452 Active 115 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $314,452 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $314,452 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $314,452 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $314,452 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $314,452 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $314,452 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $314,452 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $314,452 Active 107 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $314,452 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $314,452 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,494
− Mortgage interest: −$25,985
− Property taxes: −$6,958
− Insurance: −$2,319
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
− Management: −$1,800
− HOA: −$720
− Depreciation: −$13,495
Taxable loss: −$30,584

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,340
After-tax cash flow: $-14,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $82,050–$147,690 screening

This property requires extensive renovations, including kitchen, bathroom, roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls/paint, and systems. Significant value can be added through these updates, making it a promising investment.

Repairs flagged

Major Kitchen — No visible photos of the kitchen interior.
Major Bathrooms — No visible photos of the bathrooms.
Major Roof — No visible photos of the roof.
Major Exterior — No visible photos of the exterior.
Major Flooring — No visible photos of the flooring.
Major Interior walls/paint — No visible photos of the interior walls/paint.
Major Systems — No visible photos of the systems.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen with updated appliances and cabinets can significantly increase the home's appeal to buyers. ↑
Resale Bathroom renovation — Upgraded bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes can enhance the home's value and attract more buyers. ↑
Resale Roof replacement — A new roof will protect the home from weather damage and improve its curb appeal. ↑
Both Exterior painting and landscaping — Fresh paint and well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value. ↑
Both Interior painting and updates — Fresh paint and updated finishes can make the interior more inviting and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Meyer El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 High Dr Thomas E Randle H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lamar CISD
NCES district ID: 4826580
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $75,213
Composite: 46.43/100
National rank: #2452
State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Rosenberg

Score: 62/100
State rank: #922
US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Rosenberg, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
City population: 115,151
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 45,325
Household income: $73,186
Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
Current HPI: 309.5425
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-04-27 Listed $314,452 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…