Oleander Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$319,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · SingleFamily · 378 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,210 Sq. Ft. Blending thoughtful design with adaptable spaces, The Oleander delivers a perfect harmony of flow, flexibility, and everyday comfort-crafted to fit your lifestyle beautifully. As you enter the home, a bedroom and full bath are located just off the foyer. Continuing inside, the layout opens into the expansive great room, casual dining area, and kitchen-the true heart of the home. A large island and walk-in pantry anchor the space, while optional features such as a built-in oven or upgraded cooktop enhance both style and function. A convenient tech space is located just off the main living areas perfect for homework or focus, or this space can be swapped for a sleek wet bar, enhancing the hosting experience. Outdoor living is equally inviting with a covered patio that can be extended for entertaining, relaxing, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Across from the main living areas, additional bedrooms provide space for family or guests and a flex space allows for a home office, playroom, or hobby area. The primary suite, tucked along the rear of the home, serves as a peaceful retreat with a luxurious soaking tub, separate shower, and dual vanities for convenience. Buyers can choose to personalize with an enlarged shower or shower seat for added comfort. A spacious walk-in closet with generous hanging space keeps the retreat organized and serene.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Primary suite
• Casual dining area

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CASUAL DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $377,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-714 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2630 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 128d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 378 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,803 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 378 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.11%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,490
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -15.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22050 Maddaloni View Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+1%)	0mo	$302,990	$136	95
21935 Terre Riviera	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,182 (-1%)	0mo	$299,990	$137	88
22018 Matera Vista Ln	0.04mi	4/3.0	1,915 (-13%)	1mo	$284,990	$149	75
22048 Ponticelli Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (-11%)	1mo	$289,990	$147	69
21918 Oia Island Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,201 (-0%)	0mo	$329,990	$150	66
19726 Chianti Point Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,132 (-4%)	1mo	$279,910	$131	66
22131 San Felice Dr	0.04mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,532 (+15%)	0mo	$387,990	$153	65
21722 Cappuccino Gardens Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,182 (-1%)	1mo	$315,390	$145	61
19659 Tiramisu Hills Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,331 (+6%)	1mo	$323,390	$139	60
19906 Paros Island Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-14%)	0mo	$274,900	$145	57
21726 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-8%)	0mo	$309,390	$152	56
19426 Saint Green Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,507 (+13%)	1mo	$379,875	$152	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-113,656
• Equity at exit: $56,285

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-184,563
• Equity at exit: $32,638

Cash invested: $105,697 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 327 active · 152 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $318,990 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2630
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,980
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$472 /mo · $5,662/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,302

Max offer price $274,129

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-453	-5% $-584	+0% $-714	+5% $-845	+10% $-975
Rent	-10% $-904	-5% $-809	+0% $-714	+5% $-620	+10% $-525
Rate	-1.0pp $-524	-0.5pp $-618	base $-714	+0.5pp $-812	+1.0pp $-912

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,372
• Closing costs: $11,325
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,300	$1.10	134d	1	0.11mi
20019 Epirus Shores Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2645	$2,499	$0.94	3d	1	0.19mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	84d	1	0.26mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	1d	1	0.26mi
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	184d	1	0.37mi
20722 Nala Bear Dr Hockley, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,100	$0.81	128d	1	0.47mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,766	$0.92	127d	1	0.51mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$2,126	$1.33	0d	7	0.51mi
20802 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,666	$1.06	134d	1	0.59mi
22630 August Crow Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$1,826	$0.82	7d	1	0.63mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	140d	1	0.68mi
22719 Tabberts Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,150	$1.14	3d	1	0.81mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	143d	1	0.83mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2069	$2,672	$1.29	0d	1	0.86mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,589	$1.12	130d	1	0.95mi
21235 Slate Bend Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,280	$1.06	23d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $319,990 Active 378 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $319,990 Active 377 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $319,990 Active 376 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $319,990 Active 375 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $319,990 Active 374 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $319,990 Active 372 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $319,990 Active 371 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $319,990 Active 370 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $319,990 Active 369 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $319,990 Active 368 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $319,990 Active 367 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $319,990 Active 366 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 365 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 364 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $319,990 Active 363 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $319,990 Active 362 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $319,990 Active 361 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $319,990 Active 360 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $319,990 Active 359 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $319,990 Active 358 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $319,990 Active 357 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $319,990 Active 356 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $319,990 Active 355 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $319,990 Active 354 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $319,990 Active 353 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 352 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $319,990 Active 351 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $319,990 Active 350 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $319,990 Active 349 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $319,990 Active 348 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $319,990 Active 347 DOM
32. 2026-09-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 346 DOM
33. 2026-09-25
    days on market $319,990 Active 345 DOM
34. 2026-09-24
    days on market $319,990 Active 344 DOM
35. 2026-09-23
    days on market $319,990 Active 343 DOM
36. 2026-09-22
    days on market $319,990 Active 342 DOM
37. 2026-09-21
    days on market $319,990 Active 341 DOM
38. 2026-09-20
    days on market $319,990 Active 340 DOM
39. 2026-09-19
    days on market $319,990 Active 339 DOM
40. 2026-09-18
    days on market $319,990 Active 338 DOM
41. 2026-09-17
    days on market $319,990 Active 337 DOM
42. 2026-09-16
    days on market $319,990 Active 336 DOM
43. 2026-09-15
    days on market $319,990 Active 335 DOM
44. 2026-09-14
    days on market $319,990 Active 334 DOM
45. 2026-09-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 333 DOM
46. 2026-09-12
    days on market $319,990 Active 332 DOM
47. 2026-09-05
    days on market $319,990 Active 325 DOM
48. 2026-09-04
    days on market $319,990 Active 324 DOM
49. 2026-09-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 323 DOM
50. 2026-08-30
    days on market $319,990 Active 319 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,145
• − Property taxes: −$5,662
• − Insurance: −$1,887
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,302
• − Management: −$2,302
• − Depreciation: −$10,982
• Taxable loss: −$15,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,721
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,851/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,050–$33,150 screening

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale New kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $324,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $334,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $337,990 Zillow