3020 Avenue D · Bay City, TX 77414

$57,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1940 6,499 sqft lot $47/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two-bedroom, one bath home located in Bay City on a large lot.

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $400 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,473 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.60%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,690
• List price: $57,950
• Delta: -57.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3200 Moore Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (-11%)	6mo	$69,000	$63	59
2217 Linwood Ln	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,212 (-1%)	3mo	$158,500	$131	59
2209 Linwood Ln	0.62mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,281 (+5%)	8mo	$172,500	$135	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $17,320
• Equity at exit: $8,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $50,484
• Equity at exit: $5,010

Cash invested: $16,226 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,466/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $570

Max offer price $57,950

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,488
• Closing costs: $1,738
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2604 Avenue K Bay City, TX	2.0	2.0	963	$1,415	$1.47	43d	1	0.62mi
1401 Thompson Dr Bay City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,030	$1.12	43d	4	0.64mi
2600 Avenue K Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,665	$1.30	43d	1	0.67mi
1700 Baywood Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,007	$1.25	43d	57	0.68mi
2206 Avenue L Unit L Bay City, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$1,075	$1.30	43d	1	0.89mi
1901 Palm Village Blvd Bay City, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$849	$0.89	43d	1	1.02mi
5001 Avenue F Bay City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$798	$0.74	43d	15	1.40mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $57,950 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $57,950 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $57,950 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $57,950 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,950 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $57,950 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $57,950 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,950 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $57,950 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $57,950 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $57,950 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-03
    price $69,900 62-char remark

    Show marketing remark (62 chars)

    Two-bedroom, one bath home located in Bay City on a large lot.

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $84,900 Active 62-char remark

    Show marketing remark (62 chars)

    Two-bedroom, one bath home located in Bay City on a large lot.

18. 2023-03-07
    historical
19. 2022-12-27
    soldstatus
20. 2022-12-05
    listed $120,000 Active
21. 2022-06-07
    soldstatus
22. 2022-04-05
    soldstatus
23. 2015-08-17
    soldstatus
24. 2014-10-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,466 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,466 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,246
• − Property taxes: −$1,466
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$1,686
• Taxable income: $4,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $3,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-41.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $69,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $84,900 HARMLS
• 2023-03-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-05 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,466 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.