Duplex
335 Willow Rd E · New York, NY
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $691 – $1,283
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 98°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 52.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 5 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 6 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +20.4/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +6.5/10.0
- Schools +5.0/10.0
- 1% rule +4.8/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +3.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$750,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed
Listing remarks MLS
LG PROPERTY,END UNIT,LEGAL 2 FAM-WIDE END UNIT,MUST SELL,PRESENT ALL OFFERS. Level 1: B: SLAB L1: GARAGE,ENT TO MAIN & APT ENTRANCE,STUDIO-1 FULL BATH L2: LR,DR,EIK,SLID TO DECK,1/2 BATH L3: LG 3 BRS,FULL BATH
Key facts
- Built 1989
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $750k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $974 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $487/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $733k (2.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $733k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 480 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $7,333/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 2168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Negotiation context
- Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $162k; list at $750k implies a 363% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.98% ✗
- Cap rate
- 7.85%
- Cash-on-cash
- 5.56%
- DSCR
- 1.25
- GRM
- 8.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $913,448
- Comps found
- 3
Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95 Regis Dr | 0.38mi | 5/3.0 (-1) | 1,896 (+4%) | 8mo | $838,000 | $442 | 59 |
| 191 Lamberts Ln | 0.66mi | 5/3.0 (-1) | 1,860 (+2%) | 3mo | $935,000 | $503 | 54 |
| 493 Willowbrook Rd | 0.45mi | 5/5.5 (-1) | 2,050 (+13%) | 3mo | $1,315,000 | $641 | 44 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.93% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -6.7%
- Equity multiple
- 0.75×
- Total profit
- $-52,711
- Equity at exit
- $111,827
- IRR
- 3.9%
- Equity multiple
- 1.30×
- Total profit
- $62,448
- Equity at exit
- $64,846
Cash invested: $210,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (CITY)
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State New York
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City New York
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34
ZIP-level market 10314
- Rents YoY
- 3.9%
- Active inventory
- 487
- Price-to-rent
- 17.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $7,333 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$3,933
- Tax from tax record
- −$574 /mo · $6,887/yr
- Insurance
- −$312
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$1,540
- Net cashflow
- $974
Break-even live
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 3 | — | $7,334 |
| #1 | 3 | — | $3,667 |
| #2 | 3 | — | $3,667 |
| Total (2 units) | $7,333 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $187,500
- Closing costs
- $22,500
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 2 events
-
2026-05-31remarks 65-char remark
-
2026-05-31$750,000 Under Contract
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $6,887 · $574/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $9,781 · $815/mo
- Expected delta
- +$2,894/yr (+$241/mo · 42.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $87,996
- − Mortgage interest
- −$42,012
- − Property taxes
- −$6,887
- − Insurance
- −$3,750
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$7,040
- − Management
- −$7,040
- − Depreciation
- −$21,818
- Taxable loss
- −$550
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$132
- After-tax cash flow
- $11,815/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
No district data.
Livability — New York
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #268
- US rank
- #4188
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- New York, NY
- County
- Richmond County · 404,174 people
- City population
- 7,731,280
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
- Population (ZIP)
- 93,915
- Household income
- $104,613
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2168.0
Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 482,784 people
- By 2030
- 481,831 · -0.2%
- By 2040
- 473,159 · -2.0%
- By 2050
- 457,242 · -5.3%
- By 2075
- 408,029 · -15.5%
- By 2100
- 341,459 · -29.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 60% Asian 19% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 1%
- Foreign-born
- 28% · Canada, China, South Korea
- Languages at home
- 61% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 7% Other Indo-European 7%
Political lean MEDSL · Richmond
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+29.8) · D 35.1% · R 64.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -25.7pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -29.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+29.8 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+16.8 2012: D+0.8 2008: R+4.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -553.73%
- Current HPI
- 378.3872
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.93%
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.60%
- F500 in state
- 92
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 10 | $950B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 9 | $162B |
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| Insurance | 4 | $225B |
|
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| Telecommunications | 2 | $144B |
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| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $112B |
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $69B |
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Price history
+354.8% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-26 Listed $750,000 FSBO.com
- 2002-04-25 Listing Removed — SIBORMLS
- 1998-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
- 1998-10-27 Sold (MLS) $153,000 SIBORMLS
- 1998-03-26 Listed $164,900 SIBORMLS
- 1997-05-13 Listed $164,900 SIBORMLS
Property tax history
+5.2%/yrLatest (2025): $6,887 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…