15708 81st St E #131 · Alderton, WA 98372

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1971 $71/sqft · 25% above area Est $82k · 16% over ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 2-bed, 1.5-bath mobile home with an office in Bowman Hilton Park! Enjoy community amenities like a pool and venue space, plus RV parking. Nestled in a nice community in the middle of Sumner, Puyallup and Bonney Lake creating convenience for dining, shopping, and close access to the Highway! A perfect blend of comfort and convenience awaits!

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Bowman hilton park
• Venue space

Tags

• RV PARKING
• VENUE SPACE
• BOWMAN HILTON PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 2.5% in Alderton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#269 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumner School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #18 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.79%
• DSCR: 3.48
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,573
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 16.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16713 75th Street Ct E	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+12%)	9mo	$454,000	$300	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $62,584
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $165,024
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98372

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $445/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $1,170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $812

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7413 142nd Ave E Sumner, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	798	$1,999	$2.50	1d	6	0.97mi
16120 64th St E Sumner, WA	2.0	2.5	1224	$2,774	$2.27	1d	5	1.04mi
15716 63rd Street Ct E Unit B Sumner, WA	2.0	1.5	896	$1,700	$1.90	24d	1	1.10mi
7105 142nd Ave E Unit A Sumner, WA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,925	$1.67	24d	1	1.11mi
15721 Main St E Sumner, WA	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,950	$1.90	43d	1	1.31mi
15367 Main St E Sumner, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$2,543	$2.99	1d	12	1.35mi
5816 162nd Ave E Sumner, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	766	$2,695	$3.52	1d	12	1.37mi
15318 Washington St Sumner, WA	3.0	2.0–2.5	1288	$3,193	$2.48	1d	3	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on marketlisting id $95,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-05-14
    price $95,000
12. 2026-02-05
    price $105,000
13. 2026-01-14
    status Active
14. 2025-10-02
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $445 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$486/yr (+$40/mo · 109.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$445
• − Insurance: −$1,272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $13,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,195
• After-tax cash flow: $10,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner School District
• NCES district ID: 5308610
• Math proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $76,138
• Composite: 61.86/100
• National rank: #1497
• State rank: #18 of 291 in WA

Livability — Alderton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #9357

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alderton, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,012
• Household income: $98,152
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 871.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 6% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.81%
• Current HPI: 309.7871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $95,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $105,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Listed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $445 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.