1200 Lincoln St #406 · Bellingham, WA 98229

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $102k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lakeway Mobile Estates, an active community near amenities. This double-wide home and its expansive floor plan with 1,436 sqft. on a large lot is a must see! Space for parking 4 cars. This home features 2 bedrooms, 1.75 bathrooms and a nice sized kitchen with a breakfast bar. Large bright living room and family room which offers large windows. Large closed in front porch adding so much extra space to the home's already large floor plan. The primary bedroom boasts an en-suite bathroom. Energy efficient double pane vinyl windows. Outside, a corner lot with covered parking, storage shed. Raised garden beds line the backyard, along with fruit trees and raspberries! Club house has act

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Large lot
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• BREAKFAST BAR
• CLOSED IN FRONT PORCH
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• CORNER LOT
• COVERED PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Bus lines nearby (routes 190, 1905, 196); Approximately 5 minutes from I-5 via Lakeway Dr/Lincoln Blvd; Buyer brokerage compensation: $1,000
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Lakeway Estates (about 220 homes); Park amenities include BBQs, clubhouse, common area, and laundry; Pets allowed — see remarks; Land lease: $1,495

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (City of Bellingham); Public sewer (City of Bellingham); Power by PSE; Water heater located outside the home; Cable: Xfinity; Internet: Xfinity
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Northwest facing; Manufactured after 6/15/1976; Mobile home remains on site; Statler make; Good condition; Has view
• Construction: Metal/vinyl and wood construction; Composition roof; Tie down foundation
• Exterior features: Paved lot; Metal/vinyl and wood exterior; Wood products

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Forced air heating; Forced air cooling
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Dining room; Family room; Kitchen with eating space; Living room; Utility room; Double pane windows; Drapes; Sauna
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry available in park

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 2.0% in Bellingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#102 in WA, #1,947 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Bellingham School District (urban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.76%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,672
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 Lincoln St #196	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,304 (-9%)	6mo	$55,000	$42	73
1200 Lincoln St #193	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,261 (-12%)	3mo	$89,900	$71	71
1200 Lincoln St #285	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	8mo	$74,000	$59	68
1200 Lincoln St #163	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-6%)	23mo	$135,000	$100	66
1200 Lincoln St #106	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	14mo	$60,000	$48	58
1200 Lincoln St #184	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,260 (-12%)	22mo	$135,000	$107	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $66,344
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.86×
• Total profit: $163,335
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98229

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $386/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $1,245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $650

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1212 Nevada St Unit 1 Bellingham, WA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,750	$1.79	20d	1	0.26mi
1743 E Maple St Bellingham, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$2,108	$2.32	13d	12	0.30mi
208 N Samish Way Bellingham, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,769	$3.16	13d	8	0.34mi
1223 E Laurel St Unit 1227 Bellingham, WA	3.0	3.0	1200	$2,595	$2.16	13d	1	0.39mi
1223 E Laurel St Unit 1229 Bellingham, WA	3.0	3.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	20d	1	0.39mi
935 Otis St Bellingham, WA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	20d	1	0.40mi
3613 Consolidation Ave Bellingham, WA	3.0	2.0	1017	$2,378	$2.34	13d	8	0.41mi
110 Ashley Ave Bellingham, WA	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,298	$1.69	13d	5	0.44mi
1211 Jersey St Bellingham, WA	3.0	1.0	871	$2,411	$2.77	13d	12	0.48mi
1471 Moore St Bellingham, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0	860	$1,675	$1.95	20d	6	0.54mi
1316 High St Bellingham, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$2,410	$2.65	20d	5	0.57mi
1113 Billy Frank Jr. St Unit 3 Bellingham, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	20d	1	0.57mi
3966 Byron Ave Unit 105 Bellingham, WA	2.0	2.0	995	$1,650	$1.66	20d	1	0.61mi
1806 Lakeway Dr Bellingham, WA	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,075	$1.73	20d	1	0.63mi
800 Liberty St Unit 17 Bellingham, WA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,795	$1.89	20d	1	0.63mi
3805 Elwood Ave Bellingham, WA	4.0	1.0–2.5	1213	$2,418	$1.99	13d	49	0.68mi
1205 N Garden St Bellingham, WA	2.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	830	$2,150	$2.59	20d	9	0.68mi
1117 N Garden St Bellingham, WA	3.0–4.0	2.0	1100	$2,233	$2.03	13d	3	0.70mi
421 E Maple St Bellingham, WA	1.0	1.0	875	$900	$1.03	20d	2	0.71mi
524 32nd St Bellingham, WA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,480	$2.25	20d	3	1.01mi
705 32nd St Bellingham, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	792	$2,095	$2.65	20d	23	1.11mi
120 Prospect St Unit PS08 Bellingham, WA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	20d	1	1.11mi
317 N State St #306 Bellingham, WA	2.0	2.0	1410	$2,800	$1.99	13d	1	1.30mi
1818 D St Bellingham, WA	2.0	1.0	646	$2,350	$3.64	13d	18	1.35mi
1300 Texas St Apt 1 Bellingham, WA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	20d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $88,000 Active
18. 2024-01-30
    soldstatus $76,500 Closed
19. 2023-12-23
    status Pending
20. 2023-10-19
    listed $85,000 Active
21. 2018-09-11
    soldstatus $49,250 Sold
22. 2018-08-07
    status Pending
23. 2018-07-30
    status Pending Inspection
24. 2018-06-27
    listed $55,000 Active
25. 2011-12-06
    soldstatus $28,000 Sold
26. 2011-11-23
    status Pending Inspection
27. 2011-11-15
    price $34,000
28. 2011-10-27
    listed $44,000 Active
29. 2003-11-10
    soldstatus $43,000
30. 2003-08-18
    listed $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $386 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$447/yr (+$37/mo · 115.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$386
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $14,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,453
• After-tax cash flow: $11,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellingham School District
• NCES district ID: 5300420
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,678
• Composite: 48.49/100
• National rank: #4632
• State rank: #106 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bellingham

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #1947

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellingham, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• City population: 130,296
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 33,298
• Household income: $90,945
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -652.00%
• Current HPI: 413.1478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+81.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $88,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Sold (MLS) $76,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-19 Listed $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-11 Sold (MLS) $49,250 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-27 Listed $55,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-06 Sold (MLS) $28,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-15 Price Changed $34,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-27 Listed $44,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-10 Sold (MLS) $43,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-18 Listed $48,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $386 · -19.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.