131 Victoria Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$199,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,755 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1989 4,080 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spotless home, ready for a new owner. Home is on a golf course lot and near the clubhouse. HOA covers garbage, sewer, water and basic cable, use of clubhouse, tennis, shuffleboard, community pool/spa, access to Lake Henry. Enjoy a permanent home or Wintervacation in this beauty! 12x12 screened sun porch, 10x8 workshop area.

Key facts

• Gorgeous kitchen
• Oversized deep sink
• Lot with a view

Tags

• LOT WITH A VIEW
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• WET-BAR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED DEEP SINK
• COOK TOP WORK ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Partially furnished; Buyer approval required for association; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits (max ~20 lbs; number and size limits apply)
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $387; Total annual fees: $4,644
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee applies, approval required); Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball and shuffleboard courts, golf, gated community, security, storage, cable, internet, private road, and recreational facilities; Monthly HOA amount: $387; Association fee covers cable TV, internet, pool, sewer, water, trash, common area taxes, private road, recreational facilities, security, escrow reserves

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; 2-space carport
• Security: Gated community; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Underground utilities; Cable connected; BB/HS Internet available; Phone available; Fire hydrant nearby; Sewer connected; Water connected; Boat slip storage available ($45/mo)
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; West-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built by Homes of Merit (model)
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch; Side porch; Balcony; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Storage; On waterfront (canal); Assigned boat slip; Private boat ramp; Fishing pier; Seawall; Near marina; Paved driveway/road; Private road with maintenance agreement; Drainage canal; On golf course

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Stone counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Heat recovery unit; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; Wet bar; Skylight(s); Great room; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-601/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $200k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,999 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-39,018
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-51,583
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,073/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,036

Max offer price $191,146

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $6	+0% $-50	+5% $-107	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-206	-5% $-128	+0% $-50	+5% $28	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $1	base $-50	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3329 Aruba Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,200	$1.32	24d	1	0.82mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	24d	1	1.03mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	4d	1	1.10mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	24d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashcablepool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,999 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $199,999
16. 2026-03-12
    listed $215,000 Active
17. 2013-07-01
    soldstatus $98,500
18. 2013-06-13
    soldstatus $98,500 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Spotless home, ready for a new owner. Home is on a golf course lot and near the clubhouse. HOA covers garbage, sewer, water and basic cable, use of clubhouse, tennis, shuffleboard, community pool/spa, access to Lake Henry. Enjoy a permanent home or Wintervacation in this beauty! 12x12 screened sun porch, 10x8 workshop area.

19. 2013-03-05
    listed $102,000 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Spotless home, ready for a new owner. Home is on a golf course lot and near the clubhouse. HOA covers garbage, sewer, water and basic cable, use of clubhouse, tennis, shuffleboard, community pool/spa, access to Lake Henry. Enjoy a permanent home or Wintervacation in this beauty! 12x12 screened sun porch, 10x8 workshop area.

20. 2011-05-03
    historical
21. 2011-02-22
    listed $99,900
22. 2004-05-12
    soldstatus $86,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,073 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$587/yr (+$49/mo · 54.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,073
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$925
• After-tax cash flow: $323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+131.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $199,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 2013-06-13 Sold (MLS) $98,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-05 Listed $102,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-22 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $86,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,073 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.