4439 N Old Romero Rd #45 · Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$25,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 1977 3,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INEXPENSIVE LOT RENT ONLY $590!! Welcome to Flowing Wells Gardens, a highly desirable 55+ community featuring a clubhouse and sparkling pool! This move-in ready home offers 910 sq ft with an open living concept and a kitchen featuring newer appliances. The home also includes a washer machine that conveys with the sale. You'll find two bedrooms plus a den/office that could easily serve as a third bedroom. Enjoy relaxing on either of the two decks, perfect for morning coffee or evening cocktails. The nicely landscaped front yard, also a fenced yard provides a great space for a small dog to run around, and this is one of the biggest lots in the community! This one won't last long -- call toda

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Newer appliances
• Open living concept

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• OPEN LIVING CONCEPT
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• WASHER MACHINE
• TWO DECKS
• LANDSCAPED FRONT YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot located in Tucson - MU zoning; Lot is approximately 3,000 sq ft
• HOA & community: Has association (HOA-maintained roads); Community pool; Community clubhouse; Paved streets

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Siding exterior; Metal and rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Slab patio; Deck; Wood fencing; Flower beds; Borders common area; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Reverse osmosis; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooling; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Accessible approach with ramp
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $906 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 49.8% vs local median 6.1% in Flowing Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 155.26%
• DSCR: 7.91
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,890
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1924 W Desert Broom Ln	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (+2%)	1mo	$161,500	$175	70
2211 W Wetmore Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	924 (+2%)	4mo	$150,000	$162	65
4761 N Brookline Ct	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	882 (-3%)	4mo	$209,900	$238	63
4611 N Camino Feliz	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-1%)	13mo	$125,000	$139	60
4736 N Kenwood Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	924 (+2%)	17mo	$187,500	$203	58
4100 N Romero Rd #165	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	840 (-8%)	12mo	$50,000	$60	49
1741 W Wetmore Rd #5	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-12%)	16mo	$3,000	$4	49
4737 N Kenwood Ct	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-14%)	4mo	$199,900	$255	48
4701 N Camino Feliz	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-8%)	15mo	$150,000	$179	45
1954 W Narciso Pl	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-8%)	14mo	$180,000	$214	45
1537 W Wabash St	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	780 (-14%)	8mo	$150,000	$192	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.15×
• Total profit: $50,041
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.84×
• Total profit: $103,895
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $906

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $923	-5% $914	+0% $906	+5% $897	+10% $888
Rent	-10% $798	-5% $852	+0% $906	+5% $960	+10% $1,014
Rate	-1.0pp $918	-0.5pp $912	base $906	+0.5pp $899	+1.0pp $893

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1865 W La Osa St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,450	$1.77	44d	1	0.23mi
4213 N Romero Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,045	$1.27	44d	5	0.40mi
4111 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1131	$1,625	$1.44	24d	3	0.79mi
1501 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	44d	1	0.85mi
1925 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,076	$1.98	2d	32	0.98mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,408	$1.50	44d	1	0.98mi
1355 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	627	$1,084	$1.73	44d	4	1.01mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-01 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	44d	1	1.07mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1215-11 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	1.07mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-04 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	16d	1	1.07mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	4d	1	1.07mi
1700 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	618	$1,099	$1.78	2d	25	1.08mi
3802 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	555	$1,100	$1.98	44d	5	1.11mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 7 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1026	$2,200	$2.14	21d	1	1.11mi
4957 N Sunrise Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	803	$1,075	$1.34	15d	1	1.23mi
1448 W Kilburn St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	44d	1	1.40mi
620 W Limberlost Dr Unit E24 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	672	$1,200	$1.79	24d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $25,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $25,000 Active
16. 2025-10-16
    historical
17. 2025-06-18
    listed $25,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,311
• − Management: −$1,311
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $11,133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,672
• After-tax cash flow: $8,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flowing Wells Unified District (4405)
• NCES district ID: 0403010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,361
• Composite: 21.69/100
• National rank: #8271
• State rank: #143 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flowing Wells

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowing Wells, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $25,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-18 Listed $25,000 MLSSAZ