444 Main St · Dorchester, NJ 08316

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1890 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

Key facts

• Historic dorchester
• New septic system
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• HISTORIC DORCHESTER
• ROOF SHEATHING REPLACED
• NEW GAF TIMBERLINE SHINGLES
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• ENGINEERED SEPTIC DRAWINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking type
• Utilities: Well water; Approved septic system; Natural gas service
• Home design: Detached property; Above-grade finished living area recorded by assessor
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions recorded by assessor

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Interior features: Partial basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Maurice River Township School District (rural): math 14% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #376 of 472 in NJ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $95k implies a 476% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.79%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,804
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Church St	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-10%)	13mo	$250,000	$198	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $49,424
• Equity at exit: $42,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $123,169
• Equity at exit: $65,831

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08316

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,959/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,098

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Broad St Unit 2 Millville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	44d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    price $95,000
18. 2026-03-23
    listed $99,999 Active
19. 2026-03-09
    price $120,000
20. 2026-03-09
    historical
21. 2026-02-18
    price $135,000
22. 2026-01-20
    price $145,000
23. 2025-11-13
    price $150,000
24. 2025-10-22
    listed $165,000 Active
25. 2016-07-26
    soldstatus $16,500 Sold 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

26. 2016-07-26
    soldstatus $16,500

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

27. 2016-07-26
    soldstatus $16,500 Sold

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

28. 2016-07-19
    historical Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

29. 2016-07-19
    status Under Contract 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

30. 2016-07-12
    historical
31. 2016-06-28
    price $16,500
32. 2016-06-17
    price $16,500 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

33. 2016-05-19
    price $18,000
34. 2016-05-18
    price $18,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

35. 2016-05-03
    price $19,000

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

36. 2016-05-03
    status Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

37. 2016-04-15
    price $19,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

38. 2016-04-12
    status Active
39. 2016-04-05
    status Under Contract 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

40. 2016-04-05
    historical Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

41. 2016-03-17
    price $20,000
42. 2016-03-16
    price $20,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

43. 2016-03-04
    price $24,000
44. 2016-03-03
    price $24,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

45. 2016-02-01
    price $26,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

46. 2016-02-01
    listed $26,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

47. 2016-01-16
    historical
48. 2015-12-31
    price $28,000

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

49. 2015-12-31
    price $28,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    NEW PRICE! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property. Quaint two-story residence located in the Historic ship-building village of Dorchester is minutes from local crabbing and fishing. The home has both an updated kitchen and bath.

50. 2015-12-03
    price $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,959 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,959 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$3,959
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $6,129
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $5,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maurice River Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409780
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $64,846
• Composite: 23.8/100
• National rank: #7810
• State rank: #376 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Dorchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dorchester, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 78

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+31.9% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $99,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-26 Sold (MLS) $16,500 SJSRMLS
• 2016-07-26 Sold (MLS) $16,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-26 Sold (MLS) $16,500 TREND
• 2016-07-19 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2016-07-19 Pending — TREND
• 2016-07-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-28 Price Changed $16,500 SJSRMLS
• 2016-06-17 Price Changed $16,500 TREND
• 2016-05-19 Price Changed $18,000 SJSRMLS
• 2016-05-18 Price Changed $18,000 TREND
• 2016-05-03 Price Changed $19,000 SJSRMLS
• 2016-05-03 Relisted — TREND
• 2016-04-15 Price Changed $19,000 TREND
• 2016-04-12 Relisted — SJSRMLS
• 2016-04-05 Pending — TREND
• 2016-04-05 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2016-03-17 Price Changed $20,000 SJSRMLS
• 2016-03-16 Price Changed $20,000 TREND
• 2016-03-04 Price Changed $24,000 SJSRMLS
• 2016-03-03 Price Changed $24,000 TREND
• 2016-02-01 Price Changed $26,000 TREND
• 2016-02-01 Listed $26,000 SJSRMLS
• 2016-01-16 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2015-12-31 Price Changed $28,000 SJSRMLS
• 2015-12-31 Price Changed $28,000 TREND
• 2015-12-03 Price Changed $29,000 SJSRMLS
• 2015-12-02 Price Changed $29,000 TREND
• 2015-10-30 Price Changed $32,000 SJSRMLS
• 2015-10-29 Price Changed $32,000 TREND
• 2015-09-24 Listed $35,000 TREND
• 2015-09-24 Listed $35,000 SJSRMLS
• 2015-09-23 Listed $16,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2001-08-03 Sold (MLS) $72,000 SJSRMLS
• 2001-06-19 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2001-06-18 Listed $72,000 SJSRMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,959 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.