507 Don Ln · Itasca, TX 76055

$209,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily · 190 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,663 sqft lot $117/sqft · at area comps Est $218k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21130167 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ 1802 Redwood The Redwood Plan from our Freedom Series delivers spacious comfort and smart design, ideal for modern living. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,802 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you step inside, you’ll pass a versatile flex room, perfect for a home office or playroom, and a conveniently located half bathroom. The hallway opens to a bright and airy living area where the kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect backdrop for family time and entertaining. The stairs, located in the family room, lead to the upper level. Here, you’ll find the private primary suite, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the conveniently located laundry room complete this level, ensuring functionality for your daily routines.

Key facts

• Bright living area
• Walk-in closet
• Kitchen with island

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-680/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $176,523 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,703
• List price: $209,990
• Delta: -3.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 S Files St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-7%)	4mo	$224,900	$135	72
616. S Files St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (+8%)	2mo	$359,900	$184	71
514 Don Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,001 (+11%)	10mo	$207,490	$104	71
528 Don Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,001 (+11%)	11mo	$214,990	$107	71
104 Beard Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,562 (-13%)	3mo	$130,000	$83	64
306 S College St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (+9%)	6mo	$214,000	$109	56
609 S Files St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,661 (-8%)	22mo	$215,000	$129	55
604 E South St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-15%)	3mo	$249,999	$163	51
101 Circle Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,012 (+12%)	11mo	$219,900	$109	48
305 E Adams St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,731 (-4%)	23mo	$300,000	$173	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $110,784
• Equity at exit: $189,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $329,131
• Equity at exit: $407,964

Cash invested: $58,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $201,791

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,498
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	43d	1	0.22mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	11d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,990 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $209,990 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,990 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,990 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,990 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,990 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $210,990 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,990 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,990 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,990 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,990 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,990 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,990 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,990 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,990 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $219,990 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    MLS# 21130167 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ 1802 Redwood The Redwood Plan from our Freedom Series delivers spacious comfort and smart design, ideal for modern living. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,802 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you step inside, you’ll pass a versatile flex room, perfect for a home office or playroom, and a conveniently located half bathroom. The hallway opens to a bright and airy living area where the kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect backdrop for family time and entertaining. The stairs, located in the family room, lead to the upper level. Here, you’ll find the private primary suite, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the conveniently located laundry room complete this level, ensuring functionality for your daily routines.

17. 2026-04-03
    price $240,990 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    MLS# 21130167 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ 1802 Redwood The Redwood Plan from our Freedom Series delivers spacious comfort and smart design, ideal for modern living. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,802 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you step inside, you’ll pass a versatile flex room, perfect for a home office or playroom, and a conveniently located half bathroom. The hallway opens to a bright and airy living area where the kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect backdrop for family time and entertaining. The stairs, located in the family room, lead to the upper level. Here, you’ll find the private primary suite, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the conveniently located laundry room complete this level, ensuring functionality for your daily routines.

18. 2026-03-31
    price $236,990 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    MLS# 21130167 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ 1802 Redwood The Redwood Plan from our Freedom Series delivers spacious comfort and smart design, ideal for modern living. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,802 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you step inside, you’ll pass a versatile flex room, perfect for a home office or playroom, and a conveniently located half bathroom. The hallway opens to a bright and airy living area where the kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect backdrop for family time and entertaining. The stairs, located in the family room, lead to the upper level. Here, you’ll find the private primary suite, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the conveniently located laundry room complete this level, ensuring functionality for your daily routines.

19. 2025-12-10
    listed $236,655 Active 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    MLS# 21130167 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ 1802 Redwood The Redwood Plan from our Freedom Series delivers spacious comfort and smart design, ideal for modern living. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,802 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you step inside, you’ll pass a versatile flex room, perfect for a home office or playroom, and a conveniently located half bathroom. The hallway opens to a bright and airy living area where the kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect backdrop for family time and entertaining. The stairs, located in the family room, lead to the upper level. Here, you’ll find the private primary suite, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the conveniently located laundry room complete this level, ensuring functionality for your daily routines.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern design, spacious living areas, and a well-maintained exterior, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $219,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $240,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $236,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $236,655 NTREIS