4454 San Francisco Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1964 5,227 sqft lot Est $65k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute brick ranch home offered by HUD with classic curb appeal, a spacious front yard, and strong potential for an owner-occupant or investor. This property offers a functional layout, full basement, and the opportunity to add personal updates, build equity, or expand a rental portfolio. The brick exterior gives the home a solid, timeless look, while the yard space adds to the overall appeal. This is a great opportunity for a buyer looking for an affordable property with room to improve and personalize. Conveniently located near neighborhood amenities, schools, public transportation, shopping, and major routes for easy access throughout the St. Louis area. Property is sold As Is.

Key facts

• Spacious front yard
• Brick ranch home
• Full basement

Tags

• BRICK RANCH HOME
• SPACIOUS FRONT YARD
• FULL BASEMENT
• YARD SPACE
• NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: City lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($988 rent vs $35k).
• Cap rate 25.2% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ashland Elem. And Br. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 226 students, 99% FRL); Vashon High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 568 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.67%
• DSCR: 4.01
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,026
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4416 San Francisco Ave	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,167 (+10%)	6mo	$29,900	$26	74
4610 Penrose St	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,053 (-1%)	3mo	$80,000	$76	70
4533 Lexington Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,175 (+10%)	3mo	$105,900	$90	66
4250 E Kossuth Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+3%)	4mo	$70,000	$64	66
4729 Margaretta Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	2mo	$9,900	$10	64
4853 Lee Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+2%)	3mo	$29,900	$27	63
4627 Korte Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,072 (+1%)	2mo	$18,100	$17	62
4275 E Ashland Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0	938 (-12%)	2mo	$99,900	$107	58
4556 Carter Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	936 (-12%)	3mo	$67,500	$72	51
4547 Bessie Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	906 (-15%)	4mo	$39,500	$44	50
4607 Lee Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	912 (-14%)	4mo	$25,000	$27	49
4843 Lee Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (+10%)	2mo	$71,500	$61	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $29,531
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.25×
• Total profit: $71,061
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $359/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $289

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4497 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,000	$0.99	16d	1	0.36mi
4642 Farlin Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$800	$0.76	43d	1	0.37mi
4493 Bessie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	880	$1,250	$1.42	43d	1	0.45mi
4040 Shreve Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1201	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	0.53mi
4223 Red Bud Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1167	$895	$0.77	43d	1	0.55mi
4426 Holly Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	14d	1	0.65mi
4627 Maffitt Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$795	$1.13	43d	1	0.65mi
4847 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,473	$1.47	1d	1	0.81mi
4460 Bircher Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	1100	$725	$0.66	10d	1	0.82mi
2603 Belle Glade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$800	$0.85	4d	1	0.89mi
3819 Kossuth Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.5	816	$725	$0.89	23d	1	1.02mi
1708 Annie Malone Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	924	$1,500	$1.62	43d	1	1.08mi
4919 Thekla Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	931	$700	$0.75	43d	1	1.12mi
3644 Natural Bridge Ave Apt 303 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	710	$825	$1.16	43d	1	1.20mi
4908 W Florissant Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$695	$0.93	43d	1	1.28mi
2046 Obear Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1456	$1,070	$0.73	43d	1	1.43mi
1232 N Euclid Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	982	$1,395	$1.42	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $35,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 687-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   listed $35,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $359 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $359 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$359
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$949
• − Management: −$949
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $6,448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,548
• After-tax cash flow: $5,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $35,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $359 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.