8016 Beacon Ave S · Seattle, WA 98118

$319,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1947

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Remarkable home in quality neighborhood.

Key facts

• Built 1947

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1947; Single-family property
• Exterior features: Located in the Greater Duwamish neighborhood

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $319k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.6% in Seattle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#166 in WA, #4,033 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Seattle Public Schools (urban): math 64% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #19 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $319,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.59%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $908,120
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7601 39th Ave S	0.33mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,820 (-3%)	0mo	$1,007,000	$357	72
7919 37th Ave S	0.07mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (-12%)	5mo	$710,000	$275	68
8331 44th Ave S	0.46mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,030 (+4%)	10mo	$1,150,000	$380	57
9212 39th Ave S	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,900 (-1%)	17mo	$870,000	$300	53
4625 S Holden St	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,780 (-5%)	4mo	$800,000	$288	52
8655 39th Ave S Unit A	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,681 (-8%)	17mo	$1,100,000	$410	50
4646 S Kenyon St	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,720 (-7%)	8mo	$735,000	$270	47
7528 44th Ave S	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,640 (-10%)	8mo	$625,000	$237	42
8331 39th Ave S	0.21mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,304 (+13%)	23mo	$1,489,000	$451	42
4446 S Kenyon St	0.53mi	4/2.5	3,190 (+9%)	20mo	$1,200,000	$376	41
4805 S Chicago St	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,640 (-10%)	22mo	$819,950	$311	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-31,163
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-28,316
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Seattle: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+52

Just Cause + Relocation Assistance + Source of Income + First in Time.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98118

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,735 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$654 /mo · $7,844/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$784
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,113

Max offer price $319,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7110 Beacon Ave S Unit A Seattle, WA	3.0	3.5	2286	$3,850	$1.68	20d	1	0.68mi
2843 S Myrtle St Unit 2843 Seattle, WA	3.0	2.5	2421	$3,850	$1.59	1d	1	0.70mi
8439 47th Ave S Seattle, WA	5.0	3.0	2200	$4,395	$2.00	1d	1	0.70mi
7929 Seward Park Ave S Seattle, WA	4.0	3.5	3680	$5,000	$1.36	44d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $319,000 Active
2. 2023-05-12
   soldstatus $850,000 Closed
3. 2023-05-12
   soldstatus $850,000
4. 2023-04-17
   status Pending
5. 2023-03-30
   listed $850,000 Active
6. 2021-08-20
   soldstatus $584,000 Closed
7. 2021-08-20
   soldstatus $584,000
8. 2021-06-25
   status Pending
9. 2021-06-10
   listed $550,000 Active
10. 1991-07-10
    soldstatus $148,000
11. 1990-09-28
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,844 · $654/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,844 · $654/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$7,844
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,585
• − Management: −$3,585
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable income: $1,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$253
• After-tax cash flow: $5,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seattle Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5307710
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,695
• Composite: 60.76/100
• National rank: #1649
• State rank: #19 of 291 in WA

Livability — Seattle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4033

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seattle, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 706,262
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,500
• Household income: $113,762
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1953.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Asian 24% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 5% Chinese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1195.89%
• Current HPI: 325.4155
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+219.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $319,000 FSBO.com
• 2023-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-12 Sold (MLS) $850,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-30 Listed $850,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $584,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-20 Sold (MLS) $584,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-25 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-10 Listed $550,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 1990-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,844 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.