34691 Orchid Pkwy · Ridge Manor, FL 33523

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1990 0.32 ac lot Est $223k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

AMAZING COUNTRY ESTATE! THIS HOME HAS BEEN TOTALLY RENOVATED! IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A HUGE CORNER LOT WITH TOWERING OAKS THIS IS THE PLACE TO CALL HOME! FOYER LEADS TO L-SHAPE LIVING ROOM & FORMAL DINING ROOM WITH BEAUTIFUL LIGHTING AND NEW 12MM LAMINATE FLOORING! GOURMET KITCHEN WITH NEW CABINETS AND 3/4 INCH SOLID GRANITE COUNTERS; ENTIRE STAINLESS APPLIANCE PACKAGE WITH RANGE, REFRIGERATOR, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND REFRIGERATOR! EAST SIDE OF HOME HAS 2 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS AND HALL BATH AS WELL AS ENORMOUS BONUS ROOM WITH FANS AND BUILT-IN SHELVING! RICHLY PAINTED INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR AS WELL AS LARGE BASEBOARDS! BATHROOMS WITH PORCELAIN TILE AND ALL NEW FIXTURES, CABINETRY AND LIGHTING! ALL NEW LED LIGHTING; NEW BLINDS; NEW VANITIES; BRAND NEW HVAC SYSTEM! THIS COUNTRY HOME HAS ADDITIONAL NON-A/C SQUARE FOOTAGE IN THE ENCLOSED PATIO! OUTSIDE BRICK PATIO TOO! FENCED YARD! CARPORT! 1,600 SF OF DRIVE-WAY! THIS IS A QUAINT NEIGHBORHOOD BUILT AROUND A SCENIC LAKE! JUST A STONE'S THROW TO THE INTERSTATE FOR EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA OR OCALA! IF YOU WANT TO MOVE IN AND NOT HAVE TO LIFT A FINGER AND NO NEED TO REPAIR ANYTHING THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME SHOULD BE YOUR FIRST CHOICE!

Key facts

• Privacy fence
• Private entrance
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• SMALL PLAY AREA
• DOG RUN
• PRIVACY FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Zoning: RES; Lot size approximately 0.32 acres (130 x 118); Total acreage: 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre
• HOA & community: No homeowners association reported; Pets allowed: cats and dogs OK

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (22x22)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area and lot information recorded in public records
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Dog run; Chain link and wood fencing; Corner lot; Paved road access; Flood insurance required; Located in county

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Split-bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s); No interior appliances included
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.3% in Ridge Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#736 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 737 students, 73% FRL); Hernando High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,299 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.42%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,468
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34534 Orchid Pkwy	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+0%)	1mo	$272,500	$196	90
5072 Lakewood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,397 (+1%)	1mo	$225,000	$161	86
34739 Hibiscus Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-5%)	3mo	$289,000	$218	83
4979 Lakewood Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,432 (+3%)	5mo	$110,000	$77	78
4935 Mockingbird Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,444 (+4%)	12mo	$107,250	$74	77
5028 Cardinal Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	7mo	$264,000	$181	75
5067 Mockingbird Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,432 (+3%)	3mo	$205,625	$144	74
34799 Evergreen Way	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,444 (+4%)	10mo	$135,000	$93	69
5287 Azalea Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,312 (-6%)	9mo	$265,000	$202	65
34796 Hibiscus St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-9%)	12mo	$215,000	$170	64
5136 Lakewood Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (+8%)	7mo	$93,000	$62	58
34577 Orchid Pkwy	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,250 (-10%)	7mo	$189,000	$151	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $74,099
• Equity at exit: $107,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.36×
• Total profit: $211,862
• Equity at exit: $231,191

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,846/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,693

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34807 Evergreen Way Dade City, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	20d	1	0.27mi
5431 Tower St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.5	1188	$2,000	$1.68	17d	1	1.20mi
34934 Punch Rd Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $119,000 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 159 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $135,000
17. 2026-02-25
    price $165,000
18. 2026-02-07
    price $170,000
19. 2025-12-23
    listed $180,000 Active
20. 2018-07-10
    soldstatus $165,000
21. 2018-07-06
    soldstatus $165,000 1191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1191 chars)

    AMAZING COUNTRY ESTATE! THIS HOME HAS BEEN TOTALLY RENOVATED! IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A HUGE CORNER LOT WITH TOWERING OAKS THIS IS THE PLACE TO CALL HOME! FOYER LEADS TO L-SHAPE LIVING ROOM & FORMAL DINING ROOM WITH BEAUTIFUL LIGHTING AND NEW 12MM LAMINATE FLOORING! GOURMET KITCHEN WITH NEW CABINETS AND 3/4 INCH SOLID GRANITE COUNTERS; ENTIRE STAINLESS APPLIANCE PACKAGE WITH RANGE, REFRIGERATOR, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND REFRIGERATOR! EAST SIDE OF HOME HAS 2 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS AND HALL BATH AS WELL AS ENORMOUS BONUS ROOM WITH FANS AND BUILT-IN SHELVING! RICHLY PAINTED INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR AS WELL AS LARGE BASEBOARDS! BATHROOMS WITH PORCELAIN TILE AND ALL NEW FIXTURES, CABINETRY AND LIGHTING! ALL NEW LED LIGHTING; NEW BLINDS; NEW VANITIES; BRAND NEW HVAC SYSTEM! THIS COUNTRY HOME HAS ADDITIONAL NON-A/C SQUARE FOOTAGE IN THE ENCLOSED PATIO! OUTSIDE BRICK PATIO TOO! FENCED YARD! CARPORT! 1,600 SF OF DRIVE-WAY! THIS IS A QUAINT NEIGHBORHOOD BUILT AROUND A SCENIC LAKE! JUST A STONE'S THROW TO THE INTERSTATE FOR EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA OR OCALA! IF YOU WANT TO MOVE IN AND NOT HAVE TO LIFT A FINGER AND NO NEED TO REPAIR ANYTHING THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME SHOULD BE YOUR FIRST CHOICE!

22. 2018-05-11
    listed $162,900 1191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1191 chars)

    AMAZING COUNTRY ESTATE! THIS HOME HAS BEEN TOTALLY RENOVATED! IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A HUGE CORNER LOT WITH TOWERING OAKS THIS IS THE PLACE TO CALL HOME! FOYER LEADS TO L-SHAPE LIVING ROOM & FORMAL DINING ROOM WITH BEAUTIFUL LIGHTING AND NEW 12MM LAMINATE FLOORING! GOURMET KITCHEN WITH NEW CABINETS AND 3/4 INCH SOLID GRANITE COUNTERS; ENTIRE STAINLESS APPLIANCE PACKAGE WITH RANGE, REFRIGERATOR, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND REFRIGERATOR! EAST SIDE OF HOME HAS 2 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS AND HALL BATH AS WELL AS ENORMOUS BONUS ROOM WITH FANS AND BUILT-IN SHELVING! RICHLY PAINTED INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR AS WELL AS LARGE BASEBOARDS! BATHROOMS WITH PORCELAIN TILE AND ALL NEW FIXTURES, CABINETRY AND LIGHTING! ALL NEW LED LIGHTING; NEW BLINDS; NEW VANITIES; BRAND NEW HVAC SYSTEM! THIS COUNTRY HOME HAS ADDITIONAL NON-A/C SQUARE FOOTAGE IN THE ENCLOSED PATIO! OUTSIDE BRICK PATIO TOO! FENCED YARD! CARPORT! 1,600 SF OF DRIVE-WAY! THIS IS A QUAINT NEIGHBORHOOD BUILT AROUND A SCENIC LAKE! JUST A STONE'S THROW TO THE INTERSTATE FOR EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA OR OCALA! IF YOU WANT TO MOVE IN AND NOT HAVE TO LIFT A FINGER AND NO NEED TO REPAIR ANYTHING THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME SHOULD BE YOUR FIRST CHOICE!

23. 2018-05-11
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1191 chars)

    AMAZING COUNTRY ESTATE! THIS HOME HAS BEEN TOTALLY RENOVATED! IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A HUGE CORNER LOT WITH TOWERING OAKS THIS IS THE PLACE TO CALL HOME! FOYER LEADS TO L-SHAPE LIVING ROOM & FORMAL DINING ROOM WITH BEAUTIFUL LIGHTING AND NEW 12MM LAMINATE FLOORING! GOURMET KITCHEN WITH NEW CABINETS AND 3/4 INCH SOLID GRANITE COUNTERS; ENTIRE STAINLESS APPLIANCE PACKAGE WITH RANGE, REFRIGERATOR, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND REFRIGERATOR! EAST SIDE OF HOME HAS 2 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS AND HALL BATH AS WELL AS ENORMOUS BONUS ROOM WITH FANS AND BUILT-IN SHELVING! RICHLY PAINTED INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR AS WELL AS LARGE BASEBOARDS! BATHROOMS WITH PORCELAIN TILE AND ALL NEW FIXTURES, CABINETRY AND LIGHTING! ALL NEW LED LIGHTING; NEW BLINDS; NEW VANITIES; BRAND NEW HVAC SYSTEM! THIS COUNTRY HOME HAS ADDITIONAL NON-A/C SQUARE FOOTAGE IN THE ENCLOSED PATIO! OUTSIDE BRICK PATIO TOO! FENCED YARD! CARPORT! 1,600 SF OF DRIVE-WAY! THIS IS A QUAINT NEIGHBORHOOD BUILT AROUND A SCENIC LAKE! JUST A STONE'S THROW TO THE INTERSTATE FOR EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA OR OCALA! IF YOU WANT TO MOVE IN AND NOT HAVE TO LIFT A FINGER AND NO NEED TO REPAIR ANYTHING THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME SHOULD BE YOUR FIRST CHOICE!

24. 2018-03-07
    listed $162,500
25. 2004-05-26
    soldstatus $110,000
26. 2000-06-05
    soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,846 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,846 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$2,846
• − Insurance: −$5,714
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$40
• After-tax cash flow: $1,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ridge Manor

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #15912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridge Manor, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+53.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-06 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-11 Listed $162,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-07 Listed $162,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,846 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.