1420 N 41St Dr · Show Low, AZ 85901

$598,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1999 0.35 ac lot $142/sqft · 32% below area Est $827k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**NEW ROOF** Space, Privacy & Versatility are key in this thoughtfully designed Country Club Manor gem! Step inside to an open floor plan, perfect for easy living and entertaining. The main level features a spacious kitchen with a double oven, a primary bedroom with an en-suite, guest rooms, a guest bathroom, and a versatile office space. Downstairs, you'll find a generous walk-out living area, complete with a second kitchen, stainless steel countertops, additional bedrooms, a bathroom, laundry, and plenty of storage space. Outside, enjoy a large covered deck overlooking a private, fenced yard with fruit trees and towering pines--an ideal space for relaxation or entertaining. Recent upgrades include energy-efficient Anderson windows & doors, new metal railings on the deck & patio,

Key facts

• Second kitchen
• Walk-out living area
• Large covered deck

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• DOUBLE OVEN
• WALK-OUT LIVING AREA
• SECOND KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE COVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $598k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (55.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (63.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (63.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($544k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $52k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $315k; list at $598k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,330 (63.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.37% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.37%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 22.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $827,400
• List price: $598,000
• Delta: -27.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4530 W Fox Glove Ln	0.69mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,077 (-3%)	18mo	$1,250,000	$307	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-216,010
• Equity at exit: $89,164

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.04×
• Total profit: $-342,274
• Equity at exit: $51,704

Cash invested: $167,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 22.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,136
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,652/yr
• Insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-1,866

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,565

Max offer price $268,442

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,500
• Closing costs: $17,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $598,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $598,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $598,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $598,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $598,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $598,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   price $598,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $650,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $650,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $650,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $650,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $650,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $650,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $650,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $650,000 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $650,000 Active 77 DOM
18. 2026-03-15
    listed $650,000 Active 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    **NEW ROOF** Space, Privacy & Versatility are key in this thoughtfully designed Country Club Manor gem! Step inside to an open floor plan, perfect for easy living and entertaining. The main level features a spacious kitchen with a double oven, a primary bedroom with an en-suite, guest rooms, a guest bathroom, and a versatile office space. Downstairs, you'll find a generous walk-out living area, complete with a second kitchen, stainless steel countertops, additional bedrooms, a bathroom, laundry, and plenty of storage space. Outside, enjoy a large covered deck overlooking a private, fenced yard with fruit trees and towering pines--an ideal space for relaxation or entertaining. Recent upgrades include energy-efficient Anderson windows & doors, new metal railings on the deck & patio,

19. 2025-11-04
    price $689,000
20. 2025-07-14
    price $694,000
21. 2025-06-12
    price $699,000
22. 2024-10-23
    historical
23. 2024-07-19
    price $875,000
24. 2024-07-19
    price $875,000
25. 2024-07-04
    listed $899,000 Active
26. 2009-07-17
    soldstatus $315,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,947 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,295/yr (+$108/mo · 48.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,497
• − Property taxes: −$2,652
• − Insurance: −$2,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − Depreciation: −$17,396
• Taxable loss: −$34,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,238
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+106.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Listed $650,000 WMMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $689,000 WMMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $694,000 WMMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $699,000 WMMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $875,000 WMMLS
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $875,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-04 Listed $899,000 ARMLS
• 2009-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,652 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.