Is Serendipity Plan in Manvel, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.3% cap rate and $-651/mo modeled cash flow at a $337,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Serendipity Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,576/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.65

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.5/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Rent growth +3.2/5.0
1% rule +1.6/10.0
DSCR +0.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$337,990

Serendipity Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · SingleFamily · 134 Days on market

Excellent condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

Key facts

Tall foyer ceilings
Luxurious bath
Covered patio

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $338k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-651 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (12.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (23.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $258k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1437 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $257,592 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.66% ✗
Cap rate: 4.28%
Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
DSCR: 0.68
GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $388,651
List price: $337,990
Delta: -13.04%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5318 Majestic Ct	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+7%)	2mo	$360,000	$189	73
10127 Palm Springs Pl	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,878 (+6%)	1mo	$350,000	$186	58
10102 Palm Springs Pl	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+7%)	1mo	$347,990	$183	57
5222 Sage Hills Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+5%)	2mo	$320,000	$171	57
10110 Palm Springs Pl	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+7%)	2mo	$339,000	$178	56
10131 Palm Springs Pl	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+7%)	1mo	$365,000	$192	55
10010 Napier Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,941 (+10%)	2mo	$322,999	$166	55
5210 Getty Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,753 (-1%)	1mo	$346,990	$198	54
5215 Getty Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,872 (+6%)	1mo	$361,000	$193	53
5251 Palo Verde Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+8%)	1mo	$335,000	$175	53
5227 Palo Verde Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,977 (+12%)	0mo	$325,000	$164	53
5239 Palo Verde Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+8%)	2mo	$355,490	$186	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.0%
Equity multiple: 0.04×
Total profit: $-104,990
Equity at exit: $57,949

10-year hold

IRR: -30.0%
Equity multiple: -0.35×
Total profit: $-147,075
Equity at exit: $33,603

Cash invested: $108,822 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 146 active · 30 under contract
Months of supply: 15.1 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $381,490 ($206/sqft)
Median days on market: 99 d
This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77578

Rents YoY: 2.8%
Active inventory: 1437
Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,576 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,038
Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,830/yr
Insurance: −$162
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
Net cashflow: $-651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,400

Max offer price $294,465

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-382	-5% $-517	+0% $-651	+5% $-785	+10% $-919
Rent	-10% $-854	-5% $-753	+0% $-651	+5% $-549	+10% $-447
Rate	-1.0pp $-455	-0.5pp $-552	base $-651	+0.5pp $-752	+1.0pp $-854

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $97,163
Closing costs: $11,660
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5602 Caracara St Manvel, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,550	$1.35	30d	1	0.34mi
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	73d	1	0.36mi
9510 Turnstone Dr Arcola, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,495	$1.32	48d	1	0.37mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	52d	1	0.43mi
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	23d	1	0.56mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	93d	1	1.41mi
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	93d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $337,990 Active 134 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $337,990 Active 132 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $337,990 Active 131 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $337,990 Active 130 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $337,990 Active 129 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $337,990 Active 126 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $337,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $337,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $337,990 Active 121 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $337,990 Active 119 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $337,990 Active 118 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $337,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $337,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $337,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $337,990 Active 113 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $337,990 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $337,990 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $337,990 Active 110 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $337,990 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $337,990 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $337,990 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $337,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $337,990 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $337,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $337,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-06

price $337,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $330,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $330,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $330,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $330,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $330,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $330,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $330,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $330,990 Active 94 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $330,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $330,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $330,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $330,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $330,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $330,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $330,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $330,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $330,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $330,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $330,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $330,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $330,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $330,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $330,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $330,990 Active 69 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,911
− Mortgage interest: −$21,770
− Property taxes: −$5,830
− Insurance: −$1,943
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,473
− Management: −$2,473
− Depreciation: −$11,306
Taxable loss: −$14,884

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,572
After-tax cash flow: $-4,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Manvel, TX, is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, spacious bathrooms, and well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or renter looking for a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

Schools (NCES district)

District: Alvin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808090
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $66,740
Composite: 38.96/100
National rank: #4080
State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

Score: 67/100
State rank: #544
US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Manvel, TX
County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population: 30,210
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 30,210
Household income: $134,016
Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
Current HPI: 218.4264
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-05-15 Price Changed $330,990 Zillow
2026-03-27 Listed $327,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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