405 Camino Dona Cydney · Nogales, AZ 85621

$325,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,713 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 2006 7,536 sqft lot $190/sqft · 10% below area Est $362k · 10% under ↓ 58% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the sought-after Peña Blanca Highlands planned development in Nogales, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,713 sq. ft. of comfortable living space with no HOA fees. The home features a 2 car garage, a generous covered back porch, and a spacious backyard with breathtaking views of the surrounding Atascosa and Pajarito Mountains. Enjoy the tranquility of this peaceful neighborhood while being just minutes from the Nogales shopping center. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate nearby Peña Blanca Lake, a favorite destination for boating, hiking, and wildlife viewing. This property combines natural beauty, convenience, and endless potential ready for you to make it your own.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Covered back porch
• 7,536 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED BACK PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• NEARBY PENA BLANCA LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-831 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (45.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (53.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (53.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#59 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities D-.
• Nogales Unified District (4457) (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #207 of 249 in AZ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,512 (53.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.96%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 17.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,669
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -10.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
426 Camino Dona Cydney	0.10mi	3/3.0	1,897 (+11%)	9mo	$390,000	$206	70
434 Camino Dona Cydney	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,913 (+12%)	0mo	$333,000	$174	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $123,982
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $406,508
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85621

• Home prices YoY: 16.5%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 17.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,351/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-831

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,577

Max offer price $178,233

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-647	-5% $-739	+0% $-831	+5% $-923	+10% $-1,015
Rent	-10% $-951	-5% $-891	+0% $-831	+5% $-771	+10% $-710
Rate	-1.0pp $-667	-0.5pp $-748	base $-831	+0.5pp $-915	+1.0pp $-1,001

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $325,000 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $325,000 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 248 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 242 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 241 DOM
17. 2026-01-09
    price $325,000 709-char remark

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Peña Blanca Highlands planned development in Nogales, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,713 sq. ft. of comfortable living space with no HOA fees. The home features a 2 car garage, a generous covered back porch, and a spacious backyard with breathtaking views of the surrounding Atascosa and Pajarito Mountains. Enjoy the tranquility of this peaceful neighborhood while being just minutes from the Nogales shopping center. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate nearby Peña Blanca Lake, a favorite destination for boating, hiking, and wildlife viewing. This property combines natural beauty, convenience, and endless potential ready for you to make it your own.

18. 2025-10-01
    listed $330,000 Active 709-char remark

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Peña Blanca Highlands planned development in Nogales, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,713 sq. ft. of comfortable living space with no HOA fees. The home features a 2 car garage, a generous covered back porch, and a spacious backyard with breathtaking views of the surrounding Atascosa and Pajarito Mountains. Enjoy the tranquility of this peaceful neighborhood while being just minutes from the Nogales shopping center. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate nearby Peña Blanca Lake, a favorite destination for boating, hiking, and wildlife viewing. This property combines natural beauty, convenience, and endless potential ready for you to make it your own.

19. 2024-05-02
    status Pending 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    Step into this lovely and meticulously cared for single family home on a 7405 sq ft premium lot. Nestled in Nogales's sought-after Peña Blanca - Coronado Estates neighborhood. With 1713 square feet of thoughtfully crafted space, this contemporary oasis offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms with renovated showers. The primary bedroom retreat ensures serenity and privacy, complemented by generously sized additional bedrooms for personalized comfort. As you enter the home you are greeted by a Great Room with freshly painted white walls, ample natural light, beautiful mountain views and neutral flooring that elevate the interior's allure with with easy access to a covered patio and back yard ready for nights of family outdoor enjoyment. The gourmet kitchen, boasts ample countertop space and an intuitive layout, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Located near schools and easy access to I-19, this home offers the ideal blend of tranquility and urban convenience. Welcome home to effortless charm and comfort.

20. 2024-05-02
    soldstatus $305,000 Closed 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    Step into this lovely and meticulously cared for single family home on a 7405 sq ft premium lot. Nestled in Nogales's sought-after Peña Blanca - Coronado Estates neighborhood. With 1713 square feet of thoughtfully crafted space, this contemporary oasis offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms with renovated showers. The primary bedroom retreat ensures serenity and privacy, complemented by generously sized additional bedrooms for personalized comfort. As you enter the home you are greeted by a Great Room with freshly painted white walls, ample natural light, beautiful mountain views and neutral flooring that elevate the interior's allure with with easy access to a covered patio and back yard ready for nights of family outdoor enjoyment. The gourmet kitchen, boasts ample countertop space and an intuitive layout, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Located near schools and easy access to I-19, this home offers the ideal blend of tranquility and urban convenience. Welcome home to effortless charm and comfort.

21. 2024-05-02
    soldstatus $305,000

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    Step into this lovely and meticulously cared for single family home on a 7405 sq ft premium lot. Nestled in Nogales's sought-after Peña Blanca - Coronado Estates neighborhood. With 1713 square feet of thoughtfully crafted space, this contemporary oasis offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms with renovated showers. The primary bedroom retreat ensures serenity and privacy, complemented by generously sized additional bedrooms for personalized comfort. As you enter the home you are greeted by a Great Room with freshly painted white walls, ample natural light, beautiful mountain views and neutral flooring that elevate the interior's allure with with easy access to a covered patio and back yard ready for nights of family outdoor enjoyment. The gourmet kitchen, boasts ample countertop space and an intuitive layout, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Located near schools and easy access to I-19, this home offers the ideal blend of tranquility and urban convenience. Welcome home to effortless charm and comfort.

22. 2024-03-23
    historical Active Contingent 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    Step into this lovely and meticulously cared for single family home on a 7405 sq ft premium lot. Nestled in Nogales's sought-after Peña Blanca - Coronado Estates neighborhood. With 1713 square feet of thoughtfully crafted space, this contemporary oasis offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms with renovated showers. The primary bedroom retreat ensures serenity and privacy, complemented by generously sized additional bedrooms for personalized comfort. As you enter the home you are greeted by a Great Room with freshly painted white walls, ample natural light, beautiful mountain views and neutral flooring that elevate the interior's allure with with easy access to a covered patio and back yard ready for nights of family outdoor enjoyment. The gourmet kitchen, boasts ample countertop space and an intuitive layout, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Located near schools and easy access to I-19, this home offers the ideal blend of tranquility and urban convenience. Welcome home to effortless charm and comfort.

23. 2024-03-09
    price $315,000 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    Step into this lovely and meticulously cared for single family home on a 7405 sq ft premium lot. Nestled in Nogales's sought-after Peña Blanca - Coronado Estates neighborhood. With 1713 square feet of thoughtfully crafted space, this contemporary oasis offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms with renovated showers. The primary bedroom retreat ensures serenity and privacy, complemented by generously sized additional bedrooms for personalized comfort. As you enter the home you are greeted by a Great Room with freshly painted white walls, ample natural light, beautiful mountain views and neutral flooring that elevate the interior's allure with with easy access to a covered patio and back yard ready for nights of family outdoor enjoyment. The gourmet kitchen, boasts ample countertop space and an intuitive layout, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Located near schools and easy access to I-19, this home offers the ideal blend of tranquility and urban convenience. Welcome home to effortless charm and comfort.

24. 2024-02-09
    listed $320,000 Active 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    Step into this lovely and meticulously cared for single family home on a 7405 sq ft premium lot. Nestled in Nogales's sought-after Peña Blanca - Coronado Estates neighborhood. With 1713 square feet of thoughtfully crafted space, this contemporary oasis offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms with renovated showers. The primary bedroom retreat ensures serenity and privacy, complemented by generously sized additional bedrooms for personalized comfort. As you enter the home you are greeted by a Great Room with freshly painted white walls, ample natural light, beautiful mountain views and neutral flooring that elevate the interior's allure with with easy access to a covered patio and back yard ready for nights of family outdoor enjoyment. The gourmet kitchen, boasts ample countertop space and an intuitive layout, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Located near schools and easy access to I-19, this home offers the ideal blend of tranquility and urban convenience. Welcome home to effortless charm and comfort.

25. 1999-05-04
    soldstatus $769,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,351 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,351 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,351
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$16,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,903
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nogales Unified District (4457)
• NCES district ID: 0405530
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $28,293
• Composite: 13.72/100
• National rank: #9494
• State rank: #207 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Nogales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #10055

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,512

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 51% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 44% · Canada
• Languages at home: 9% English-only · Spanish 91%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.62%
• Current HPI: 385.6724
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-57.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $325,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-01 Listed $330,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-05-02 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2024-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-02 Sold (MLS) $305,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-23 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-09 Price Changed $315,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-02-09 Listed $320,000 MLSSAZ
• 1999-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $769,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,351 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.