10816 Autumn St #97 · Firestone, CO 80504

$97,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2008 Est $74k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits for the fixer upper at heart. Conveniently located in the beautiful community of Eagle Crest with beautiful views of the front range. Easy commute to Firestone, Longmont, I25, restaurants, shopping, and schools. This 3 bedroom 2 bath house has a new water heater and heat tape below to keep the pipes warm. Bring your creativity and design the house that you want. Enjoy the community pool, playground, fitness center and clubhouse. Financing available through 21st mortgage or Vanderbilt.

Key facts

• Newly added shed
• Laminate flooring
• Under-bench storage

Tags

• LAMINATE FLOORING
• CUSTOM TILE
• DINING NOOK
• UNDER-BENCH STORAGE
• GAS RANGE
• NEWLY ADDED SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features
• Utilities: City water (meter installed); Public sewer; Natural gas available (Black Hills); Electricity available; Trash service: Eagle Crest
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Storage; Land lease; Deciduous trees; Level lot; House faces north; Minimal flood risk (C rating)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 2.9% in Firestone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#44 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 468 students, 33% FRL); Mead High School (math 34% / reading 59%, grade D-, #137 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,119 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $97k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $88,270 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.12%
• DSCR: 3.68
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4904 Eagle Crest Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	22mo	$85,000	$80	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $63,655
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $138,838
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80504

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $669/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $1,361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $766

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,416	-5% $1,388	+0% $1,361	+5% $1,333	+10% $1,306
Rent	-10% $1,164	-5% $1,262	+0% $1,361	+5% $1,459	+10% $1,557
Rate	-1.0pp $1,410	-0.5pp $1,385	base $1,361	+0.5pp $1,336	+1.0pp $1,310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10670 Jake Jabs Blvd Firestone, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$2,595	$2.50	14d	26	0.46mi
10767 Cimarron St Firestone, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	760	$1,725	$2.27	14d	6	0.91mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $97,000
15. 2026-03-13
    listed $99,500 Active
16. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Opportunity awaits for the fixer upper at heart. Conveniently located in the beautiful community of Eagle Crest with beautiful views of the front range. Easy commute to Firestone, Longmont, I25, restaurants, shopping, and schools. This 3 bedroom 2 bath house has a new water heater and heat tape below to keep the pipes warm. Bring your creativity and design the house that you want. Enjoy the community pool, playground, fitness center and clubhouse. Financing available through 21st mortgage or Vanderbilt.

17. 2021-03-13
    historical Active - Backup 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Opportunity awaits for the fixer upper at heart. Conveniently located in the beautiful community of Eagle Crest with beautiful views of the front range. Easy commute to Firestone, Longmont, I25, restaurants, shopping, and schools. This 3 bedroom 2 bath house has a new water heater and heat tape below to keep the pipes warm. Bring your creativity and design the house that you want. Enjoy the community pool, playground, fitness center and clubhouse. Financing available through 21st mortgage or Vanderbilt.

18. 2021-02-15
    listed $55,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Opportunity awaits for the fixer upper at heart. Conveniently located in the beautiful community of Eagle Crest with beautiful views of the front range. Easy commute to Firestone, Longmont, I25, restaurants, shopping, and schools. This 3 bedroom 2 bath house has a new water heater and heat tape below to keep the pipes warm. Bring your creativity and design the house that you want. Enjoy the community pool, playground, fitness center and clubhouse. Financing available through 21st mortgage or Vanderbilt.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $669 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $669 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$669
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,389
• − Management: −$2,389
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $15,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,761
• After-tax cash flow: $12,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J
• NCES district ID: 0805370
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,571
• Composite: 37.73/100
• National rank: #4353
• State rank: #23 of 86 in CO

Livability — Firestone

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #5060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Firestone, CO
• County: Weld County · 332,652 people
• City population: 1,684
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• Population (ZIP): 63,451
• Household income: $113,643
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1028.0

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -534.45%
• Current HPI: 245.1351
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.34%
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+76.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $97,000 IRES
• 2026-03-13 Listed $99,500 IRES
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $55,000 IRES
• 2021-03-13 Contingent — IRES
• 2021-02-15 Listed $55,000 IRES

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $669 · +540.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.