107 Ball Ave · Canastota, NY 13032

$69,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1930 2,613 sqft lot Est $138k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Sold as-is; cash buyers preferred. This charming, quaint home includes a brand-new HVAC system and stainless steel appliances. With some TLC, it presents a great opportunity as a starter home or rental investment. Small backyard provides private outdoor space. Contact listing agent for interior photos, serious inquiries only. Property to be delivered vacant at closing. Flood insurance required.

Key facts

• 2,613 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1930

Tags

• BRAND-NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($75/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.8% in Canastota — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#332 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Canastota Central School District (town): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #473 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $70k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.61%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 W Lewis St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	940 (-6%)	8mo	$129,900	$138	65
105 W Park St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (+1)	923 (-8%)	20mo	$45,000	$49	47
7503 Roberts St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (+1)	899 (-10%)	5mo	$130,000	$145	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $38,822
• Equity at exit: $62,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $114,707
• Equity at exit: $135,800

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13032

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,005/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,295

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $26	+0% $6	+5% $-13	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-45	+0% $6	+5% $58	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $24	base $6	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
137 S Peterboro St Canastota, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	22d	1	0.39mi
3166B Seneca Tpke Canastota, NY	1.0	1.0	1100	$1,675	$1.52	22d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   listed $69,900 Active
3. 2008-08-20
   soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,005 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,005 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,005
• − Insurance: −$5,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,251
• − Management: −$1,251
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable loss: −$693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canastota Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606390
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,825
• Composite: 37.44/100
• National rank: #4413
• State rank: #473 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canastota

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canastota, NY
• City population: 12,964
• Population (ZIP): 12,964

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.44%
• Current HPI: 251.5471
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+111.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $69,900 Global MLS
• 2008-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,005 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.