507 W Morgan St St · Paragould, AR 72450

$19,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1960 6,534 sqft lot $17/sqft · 84% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a Project in a central location? Nice covered front porch. Vinyl siding. Corner lot. In need of updating and restoration. No seller disclosure, priced as-is.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Vinyl siding
• Corner lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• VINYL SIDING
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Cash financing possible

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Municipal electric (Entergy)
• Home design: Metal/vinyl siding
• Construction: Crawl space foundation; Composition 3-tab shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Level, corner lot; Inside city limits; Paved road

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating/cooling (see remarks)
• Interior features: Other features (see remarks); Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($987 rent vs $19k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 47.1% vs local median 4.5% in Paragould — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#159 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Paragould School District (town): math 35% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #124 of 238 in AR (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (135 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $570 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,715 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 47.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 145.71%
• DSCR: 7.48
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,864
• List price: $19,000
• Delta: -83.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 W Morgan St St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,120 (0%)	1mo	$14,500	$13	100
614 N 8th St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-4%)	3mo	$120,000	$111	81
409 Hunt St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,138 (+2%)	1mo	$130,000	$114	80
403 N 6th St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+5%)	1mo	$149,900	$128	78
403 N 6th St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+5%)	1mo	$149,900	$128	78
802 N 3rd St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+7%)	2mo	$174,900	$146	73
812 N 3rd St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+13%)	1mo	$176,400	$139	64
804 N 3rd St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+13%)	1mo	$174,900	$138	64
114 Meadow Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	3mo	$165,000	$132	55
1014 Rector Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,054 (-6%)	0mo	$27,900	$26	52
1236 N Highway 135	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,229 (+10%)	3mo	$158,250	$129	48
812 W Emerson St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+11%)	2mo	$80,000	$64	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.37×
• Total profit: $33,888
• Equity at exit: $2,833

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.52×
• Total profit: $77,268
• Equity at exit: $1,643

Cash invested: $5,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72450

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$100
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $319/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $254

Max offer price $19,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $590	-5% $585	+0% $580	+5% $574	+10% $569
Rent	-10% $501	-5% $540	+0% $580	+5% $619	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $589	-0.5pp $584	base $580	+0.5pp $575	+1.0pp $570

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,750
• Closing costs: $570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 N 7th St Unit 415 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	800	$940	$1.18	44d	1	0.27mi
1205 W Hunt St Unit 1 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	800	$825	$1.03	44d	1	0.56mi
528 E Lake St Paragould, AR	3.0	1.0	1088	$695	$0.64	44d	1	0.80mi
700 S 4th St Unit 1 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	942	$725	$0.77	44d	1	0.87mi
800 S 3rd Ave Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	875	$900	$1.03	44d	1	1.03mi
1304 Stafford St Paragould, AR	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,450	$1.04	44d	1	1.08mi
307 N 12th Ave Paragould, AR	3.0	1.0	1240	$1,195	$0.96	44d	1	1.26mi
1204 S 8th St Unit 2 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	979	$950	$0.97	44d	1	1.31mi
804 Ada St Unit 3 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	1059	$950	$0.90	44d	1	1.34mi
812 Ada St Unit 3 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	975	$950	$0.97	44d	1	1.35mi
603 Wirt St Apt 1 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	840	$725	$0.86	44d	1	1.43mi
605 Wirt St Apt 8 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	840	$725	$0.86	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $19,000 Under Contract 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $19,000 Take Backups 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $19,000 Take Backups 25 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $19,000 Take Backups 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $19,000 Take Backups 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-07
   listed $25,000 New Listing 170-char remark
7. 2021-11-09
   soldstatus $115,000
8. 2006-09-05
   soldstatus $44,000
9. 2006-05-18
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $319 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $319 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,064
• − Property taxes: −$319
• − Insurance: −$892
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$948
• − Management: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$553
• Taxable income: $7,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $5,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paragould School District
• NCES district ID: 0500017
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $36,644
• Composite: 28.67/100
• National rank: #6696
• State rank: #124 of 238 in AR

Livability — Paragould

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #13582

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paragould, AR
• County: Greene County · 40,807 people
• City population: 40,807
• Metro: Paragould, AR
• Population (ZIP): 40,807
• Household income: $57,725
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,533 people
• By 2030: 50,640 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 54,795 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 58,486 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 66,056 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 67,684 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.6% · R 79.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: -29.7pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+36.9 2008: R+29.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.15%
• Current HPI: 236.1404
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paragould, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-63.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) $14,500 CARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $19,000 CARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $25,000 CARMLS
• 2021-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $319 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.