10071 Minnow Ray Dr · Quail Ridge, FL 34638

$244,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · Townhouse · 29 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This convenient single-story home features two bedrooms, including a privately situated owner's suite with an attached full bathroom and walk-in closet. On the opposite side, there is an open floorplan showcasing the stylish kitchen, dining room and inviting family room in a cohesive flow to deliver seamless everyday living. Nearby are glass-sliders that lead to a cozy covered patio, ideal for outdoor activities.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 10071 Minnow Ray Dr, Land O Lakes, FL 34638; Spec inventory (new construction)
• Financial info: List price $244,900

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space; 1 total parking space
• Home design: Single-family residence; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1398 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction spec home (Sunrise II plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($154/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Quail Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#715 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,861 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,159
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-62,585
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,674/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $97	+0% $13	+5% $-72	+10% $-156
Rent	-10% $-158	-5% $-72	+0% $13	+5% $98	+10% $183
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $75	base $13	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17512 Shirewood Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	26d	1	0.75mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	26d	1	1.13mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	17d	1	1.13mi
11070 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,950	$1.17	26d	1	1.17mi
11071 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,100	$1.26	26d	1	1.17mi
11147 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	26d	1	1.24mi
9896 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,175	$1.46	26d	1	1.26mi
11236 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	17d	1	1.33mi
11262 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,195	$1.31	7d	1	1.35mi
10981 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,000	$1.12	22d	1	1.39mi
17608 Nectar Flume Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	26d	1	1.43mi
11103 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,350	$1.32	26d	1	1.49mi
10179 Gliding Eagle Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,800	$1.53	20d	1	1.50mi
11115 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,250	$1.35	26d	1	1.50mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$3,674
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$3,982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$956
• After-tax cash flow: $1,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Quail Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #15264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B