624 S Dolphin St S · Rockaway Beach, OR 97136

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1980 4,356 sqft lot $311/sqft · 62% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fisherman's delight with room to store your Boat and RV. Professionally renovated home located three blocks to the beach. Light and Bright 2 bedroom 1 full bath open floor plan. Refreshed interior with new windows and custom accordion blinds new kitchen counters, subway tile backsplash and farm sink. New appliances include a refrigerator, dishwasher, range-oven, microwave oven, garbage disposal and water heater. New LED lighting throughout with adjustable brightness feature. Hardy Metal roof adds peace of mind. Handy NEW LEAF GUTTER SYSTEM with warranty and New Tuff Shed to store toys. Turn Key amenities include a potable ice maker, dishware, utensils, liens and etc.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Tuff shed
• New siding

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• GRAVEL TURN AROUND
• TUFF SHED
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 6.6% in Rockaway Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#94 in OR, #4,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $243k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.77%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,324
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: 62.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
923 S Harbor St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-4%)	8mo	$189,000	$205	69
930 S Easy St	0.25mi	2/1.0	917 (-4%)	20mo	$240,000	$262	60
1098 S Harbor St	0.41mi	2/1.0	924 (-4%)	20mo	$200,000	$216	54
8035 Hollyhock St	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,092 (+14%)	9mo	$245,500	$225	43
176 S Coral St	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+12%)	20mo	$265,000	$245	38
145 S Dolphin St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+15%)	22mo	$315,000	$286	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $74,831
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $223,583
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97136

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $826/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$983
• Net cashflow: $1,937

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,230

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,107	-5% $2,022	+0% $1,937	+5% $1,853	+10% $1,768
Rent	-10% $1,568	-5% $1,753	+0% $1,937	+5% $2,122	+10% $2,307
Rate	-1.0pp $2,088	-0.5pp $2,014	base $1,937	+0.5pp $1,860	+1.0pp $1,781

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 N Dolphin St Rockaway Beach, OR	2.0	2.0	1020	$6,000	$5.88	45d	1	0.70mi
406 N 3rd Ave Rockaway Beach, OR	2.0	1.0	762	$3,000	$3.94	45d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $299,000 Pending 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-03-26
   price $299,000 675-char remark

   Show marketing remark (675 chars)

   Fisherman's delight with room to store your Boat and RV. Professionally renovated home located three blocks to the beach. Light and Bright 2 bedroom 1 full bath open floor plan. Refreshed interior with new windows and custom accordion blinds new kitchen counters, subway tile backsplash and farm sink. New appliances include a refrigerator, dishwasher, range-oven, microwave oven, garbage disposal and water heater. New LED lighting throughout with adjustable brightness feature. Hardy Metal roof adds peace of mind. Handy NEW LEAF GUTTER SYSTEM with warranty and New Tuff Shed to store toys. Turn Key amenities include a potable ice maker, dishware, utensils, liens and etc.

10. 2026-01-02
    listed $319,000 Active 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Fisherman's delight with room to store your Boat and RV. Professionally renovated home located three blocks to the beach. Light and Bright 2 bedroom 1 full bath open floor plan. Refreshed interior with new windows and custom accordion blinds new kitchen counters, subway tile backsplash and farm sink. New appliances include a refrigerator, dishwasher, range-oven, microwave oven, garbage disposal and water heater. New LED lighting throughout with adjustable brightness feature. Hardy Metal roof adds peace of mind. Handy NEW LEAF GUTTER SYSTEM with warranty and New Tuff Shed to store toys. Turn Key amenities include a potable ice maker, dishware, utensils, liens and etc.

11. 2025-08-20
    price $349,000
12. 2025-08-14
    listed $369,000 Active
13. 2025-07-14
    listed $369,000 Active
14. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $243,000 Closed
15. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $243,000 Closed
16. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $243,000 Closed
17. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $243,000
18. 2024-05-09
    status Pending
19. 2024-05-09
    price $269,900
20. 2024-05-09
    status Pending - Accepting Backups
21. 2024-04-24
    status Active
22. 2024-04-24
    status Active
23. 2024-04-15
    status Pending
24. 2024-04-15
    status Pending - Accepting Backups
25. 2024-04-11
    price $269,900
26. 2024-04-11
    price $269,900
27. 2024-03-28
    price $279,900
28. 2024-03-28
    price $279,900
29. 2024-03-14
    listed $289,900 Active
30. 2024-03-14
    listed $289,900 Active
31. 2024-01-18
    listed $225,000 Active
32. 2018-03-13
    soldstatus $80,750
33. 2018-03-13
    soldstatus $80,750
34. 2017-10-18
    listed $80,750
35. 2017-10-18
    listed $80,750
36. 2000-07-14
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $826 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,900 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,075/yr (+$173/mo · 251.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥76°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$826
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,495
• − Management: −$4,495
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $19,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,663
• After-tax cash flow: $18,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56
• NCES district ID: 4108650
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,437
• Composite: 41.68/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #62 of 183 in OR

Livability — Rockaway Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #4777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockaway Beach, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,422

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+298.7% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $299,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $319,000 RMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $349,000 OCMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $369,000 OCMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $369,000 OCMLS
• 2024-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $243,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $243,000 RMLS
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $243,000 OCMLS
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $243,000 OCMLS
• 2024-05-09 Pending — RMLS
• 2024-05-09 Price Changed $269,900 OCMLS
• 2024-05-09 Pending — OCMLS
• 2024-04-24 Relisted — RMLS
• 2024-04-24 Relisted — OCMLS
• 2024-04-15 Pending — RMLS
• 2024-04-15 Pending — OCMLS
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $269,900 RMLS
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $269,900 OCMLS
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $279,900 RMLS
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $279,900 OCMLS
• 2024-03-14 Listed $289,900 RMLS
• 2024-03-14 Listed $289,900 OCMLS
• 2024-01-18 Listed $225,000 OCMLS
• 2018-03-13 Sold (MLS) $80,750 OCMLS
• 2018-03-13 Sold (MLS) $80,750 RMLS
• 2017-10-18 Listed $80,750 OCMLS
• 2017-10-18 Listed $80,750 RMLS
• 2000-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $826 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.