16207 N F M 179 · Shallowater, TX 79363

$184,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 1941 Good condition 3.60 ac lot $88/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Sprawling multi-use property with over 3.5 acres and featuring a 1,800 sq ft barn and additional building with 20 total stalls (indoor and outdoor), dedicated riding area, and additional space for livestock or storage. Another separate structure includes an office with bathroom, dog wash station, and a shop area in the back--perfect for equestrian, boarding, grooming, or hobby farm operations. The 2,100 sq ft manufactured home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with plenty of space for comfortable living on-site. A rare opportunity for those seeking functionality, flexibility, and income-producing potential all in one property.

Key facts

• Dog wash station
• 800 sq ft barn
• 20 total stalls

Tags

• 800 SQ FT BARN
• 20 TOTAL STALLS
• DEDICATED RIDING AREA
• OFFICE WITH BATHROOM
• DOG WASH STATION
• SHOP AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property allows horses

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking configuration
• Utilities: Private sewer via septic tank; Paved road access
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; Residential zoning (single family)
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials; Other foundation type; Built as single-story with approximately 2,100 finished above-grade square feet
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back and front yard; Pasture; Kennel; On-site storage; Barn(s); Arena (horse amenities); Additional storage structures

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for added ventilation
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $184k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($210/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shallowater Middle (math 75% / reading 64%, grade A, #63 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 500 students, 37% FRL); Shallowater H S (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 542 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $163,170 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,973
• List price: $184,000
• Delta: -51.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $101,348
• Equity at exit: $165,762

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $297,627
• Equity at exit: $357,472

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,760/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $184,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $81	+0% $17	+5% $-46	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-47	+0% $17	+5% $82	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $64	base $17	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1406 15th St Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,600	$1.03	14d	1	1.20mi
1408 15th St Unit B Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,600	$1.03	14d	1	1.21mi
1403 17th St Unit 1 Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	14d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $184,000 Active 634-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$2,760
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$2,892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$694
• After-tax cash flow: $904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This property offers a well-maintained and functional equestrian and boarding facility with a 2,100 sq ft manufactured home. It is ready for immediate use and can be further enhanced with landscaping and painting to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both painting — refreshes the exterior and interior
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both painting — refreshes the exterior and interior ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shallowater, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $184,000 LARMLS