1405 Vegas Valley Dr #103 · Winchester, NV 89169

$144,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,237 sqft · Condo public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1971 $379/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner will carry terms available! Unit 103 at Casa Vega Condominiums, located at 1405 Vegas Valley Drive, presents a strong investment opportunity with a current tenant in place—ideal for buyers seeking immediate cash flow at a 5.75% cap rate. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with a spacious living room flowing into a separate dining area. Natural light fills the space, complemented by tile flooring throughout. The galley-style kitchen features ample cabinetry and potential for future updates. Additional highlights include a large linen closet, gas and power utilities, and a primary bedroom with a private bath and separate shower. An enclosed oversized patio extends the living space and includes a dedicated storage room. Conveniently located behind the HOA office and near one of three pools, just minutes from Las Vegas Country Club and Sunrise Hospital.

Key facts

• Large linen closet
• Private bath
• Large living room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• LARGE LINEN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#3 in NV, #2,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.4%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,905/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 2744% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $996 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $144k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.88%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,871
• Equity at exit: $21,471

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,466
• Equity at exit: $12,450

Cash invested: $40,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89169

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,905 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $551/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$379
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $144,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,000
• Closing costs: $4,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2999 Bel Air Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1326	$2,700	$2.04	21d	1	0.44mi
1100 Tam O Shanter Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	43d	1	0.46mi
3145 Bel Air Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1305	$2,495	$1.91	21d	1	0.57mi
3159 Bel Air Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1305	$2,750	$2.11	21d	1	0.60mi
2080 Karen Ave Unit B63 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,175	$0.99	23d	1	0.62mi
2080 Karen Ave #3 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,200	$1.01	21d	1	0.65mi
2080 Karen Ave #46 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1360	$2,000	$1.47	43d	1	0.65mi
900 E Desert Inn Rd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,800	$1.67	43d	5	0.72mi
2158 E Desert Inn Rd Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	1210	$1,100	$0.91	19d	1	0.73mi
3152 S Eastern Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	987	$1,450	$1.47	23d	1	0.86mi
2831 Geary Pl #2909 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	1112	$1,899	$1.71	43d	1	0.92mi
596 Tam O Shanter Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,750	$1.30	43d	1	0.96mi
3317 Racquet St Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1476	$1,595	$1.08	20d	1	0.98mi
1040 Canosa Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	969	$1,745	$1.80	43d	1	0.98mi
511 E Sahara Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	43d	3	1.11mi
1601 E Katie Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	809	$1,852	$2.29	43d	13	1.12mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$3,500	$3.15	4d	3	1.13mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1109	$3,500	$3.15	3d	3	1.13mi
1700 E Viking Rd Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,662	$1.53	43d	3	1.18mi
2898 Pacific Ave Unit N/A Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,000	$1.37	20d	1	1.19mi
222 Karen Ave #1004 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,300	$2.83	23d	1	1.21mi
222 Karen Ave #3005 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,400	$2.95	23d	1	1.21mi
222 Karen Ave #2904 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,200	$2.70	1d	1	1.21mi
222 Karen Ave #1105 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$1,990	$2.44	43d	1	1.21mi
222 Karen Ave #306 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	2.0	814	$2,300	$2.83	43d	1	1.21mi
222 Karen Ave #3203 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	2.0	814	$2,500	$3.07	43d	1	1.21mi
222 Karen Ave #4101 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1399	$4,000	$2.86	1d	1	1.21mi
1021 Griffith Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1094	$2,200	$2.01	43d	1	1.21mi
2137 E Saint Louis Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0	1028	$1,700	$1.65	43d	1	1.25mi
2777 Paradise Rd #708 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	1179	$2,400	$2.04	7d	1	1.27mi
595 S Royal Crest Cir #18 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	43d	1	1.27mi
2938 E Karen Ave Unit 3 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,325	$1.10	7d	1	1.30mi
2938 Karen Ave Unit 1 Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,275	$0.88	7d	1	1.30mi
544 Oakbrook Ln Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	1146	$1,950	$1.70	43d	1	1.30mi
525 E Saint Louis Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,525	$1.39	43d	1	1.31mi
1816 Wengert Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1281	$2,500	$1.95	17d	1	1.35mi
3550 Paradise Rd Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,425	$1.50	43d	20	1.36mi
2017 Bracken Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,880	$1.33	11d	1	1.39mi
3930 University Center Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0–3.0	1200	$1,725	$1.44	43d	2	1.41mi
1921 Franklin Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,000	$1.52	19d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $379 · $4,548/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,000 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,000 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,000 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,000 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,000 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,000 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,000 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $144,000 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,000 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,000 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,000 Active 159 DOM
13. 2025-12-23
    listed $144,000 Active 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    Owner will carry terms available! Unit 103 at Casa Vega Condominiums, located at 1405 Vegas Valley Drive, presents a strong investment opportunity with a current tenant in place—ideal for buyers seeking immediate cash flow at a 5.75% cap rate. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with a spacious living room flowing into a separate dining area. Natural light fills the space, complemented by tile flooring throughout. The galley-style kitchen features ample cabinetry and potential for future updates. Additional highlights include a large linen closet, gas and power utilities, and a primary bedroom with a private bath and separate shower. An enclosed oversized patio extends the living space and includes a dedicated storage room. Conveniently located behind the HOA office and near one of three pools, just minutes from Las Vegas Country Club and Sunrise Hospital.

14. 2025-12-18
    historical
15. 2025-10-30
    price $145,000
16. 2025-10-27
    price $125,500
17. 2025-09-21
    listed $154,500 Active
18. 2020-12-07
    soldstatus $87,000 Closed
19. 2020-11-05
    status Pending
20. 2020-10-13
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2020-10-11
    price $95,000
22. 2020-08-21
    price $98,000
23. 2020-07-28
    price $100,000
24. 2020-07-01
    listed $105,000 Active
25. 2019-05-27
    historical
26. 2019-02-17
    listed $100,000 Active
27. 2016-07-15
    historical
28. 2016-05-28
    historical Contingent Offer
29. 2016-02-06
    price $60,000
30. 2016-02-05
    status Exclusive Right
31. 2016-02-03
    historical
32. 2015-09-04
    listed $65,000 Exclusive Right
33. 2015-06-11
    soldstatus $30,500 Sold
34. 2015-05-06
    status Pending
35. 2015-05-01
    status Exclusive Agency
36. 2015-04-09
    status Pending
37. 2015-04-08
    status Exclusive Agency
38. 2015-03-19
    status Pending
39. 2015-03-17
    price $34,400
40. 2015-02-19
    price $37,840
41. 2014-12-30
    listed $43,000 Exclusive Agency
42. 2011-04-26
    historical
43. 2010-12-09
    status Pending
44. 2010-03-05
    listed $35,000 Exclusive Right
45. 2003-07-29
    soldstatus $72,000
46. 1991-09-23
    soldstatus $50,000
47. 1985-06-10
    soldstatus $50,000
48. 1985-06-10
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $551 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $850 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 54.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,066
• − Property taxes: −$551
• − Insurance: −$720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − HOA: −$4,548
• − Depreciation: −$4,189
• Taxable income: $1,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$271
• After-tax cash flow: $2,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200060
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,611
• Composite: 26.48/100
• National rank: #7211
• State rank: #11 of 17 in NV

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #2272

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, NV
• County: Clark County · 2,306,105 people
• City population: 39,883
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• Population (ZIP): 22,171
• Household income: $40,904
• Rent vs Own: 80.7% rent · 19.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2744.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,504,101 people
• By 2030: 2,693,770 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 3,061,208 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 3,400,072 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 4,139,522 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 4,596,916 · +83.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 33% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 47.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+10.7 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.91%
• Current HPI: 272.6449
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.43%
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

+188.0% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $144,000 GLVAR
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $145,000 GLVAR
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $125,500 GLVAR
• 2025-09-21 Listed $154,500 GLVAR
• 2020-12-07 Sold (MLS) $87,000 GLVAR
• 2020-11-05 Pending — GLVAR
• 2020-10-13 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2020-10-11 Price Changed $95,000 GLVAR
• 2020-08-21 Price Changed $98,000 GLVAR
• 2020-07-28 Price Changed $100,000 GLVAR
• 2020-07-01 Listed $105,000 GLVAR
• 2019-05-27 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2019-02-17 Listed $100,000 GLVAR
• 2016-07-15 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2016-05-28 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2016-02-06 Price Changed $60,000 GLVAR
• 2016-02-05 Relisted — GLVAR
• 2016-02-03 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2015-09-04 Listed $65,000 GLVAR
• 2015-06-11 Sold (MLS) $30,500 GLVAR
• 2015-05-06 Pending — GLVAR
• 2015-05-01 Relisted — GLVAR
• 2015-04-09 Pending — GLVAR
• 2015-04-08 Relisted — GLVAR
• 2015-03-19 Pending — GLVAR
• 2015-03-17 Price Changed $34,400 GLVAR
• 2015-02-19 Price Changed $37,840 GLVAR
• 2014-12-30 Listed $43,000 GLVAR
• 2011-04-26 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2010-12-09 Pending — GLVAR
• 2010-03-05 Listed $35,000 GLVAR
• 2003-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1991-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1985-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1985-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $551 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.