8 Henry St · Centereach, NY 11720

$275,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $535k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is a short sale . Please do not disturb the occupants. Drive by only.

Key facts

• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $275k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hawkins Path School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 343 students, 42% FRL); Dawnwood Middle School (math 37% / reading 46%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,074 students, 37% FRL); Centereach High School (math 84% / reading 77%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,475 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 22% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.44%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $535,392
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 Craft Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	2mo	$630,000	$597	68
14 Renown St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,056 (0%)	13mo	$585,000	$554	57
34 Morning Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,037 (-2%)	12mo	$574,000	$554	53
39 Gould Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	986 (-7%)	5mo	$500,000	$507	48
22 Arlington Ter	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-5%)	12mo	$450,000	$450	41
127 Elliot Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,186 (+12%)	10mo	$570,000	$481	41
187 Mark Tree Rd	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (+12%)	11mo	$515,000	$434	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,562
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $54,981
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11720

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$819 /mo · $9,831/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$810
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,008

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $825	-5% $747	+0% $670	+5% $592	+10% $514
Rent	-10% $365	-5% $517	+0% $670	+5% $822	+10% $974
Rate	-1.0pp $808	-0.5pp $740	base $670	+0.5pp $598	+1.0pp $526

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Spruce St Centereach, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,700	$3.38	0d	1	0.19mi
9 Williams Blvd Lake Grove, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	861	$3,385	$3.93	0d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2024-12-29
   status Pending
2. 2024-12-19
   listed $275,000 Active
3. 2006-05-01
   soldstatus $335,000
4. 2004-03-22
   soldstatus $267,000
5. 1998-01-14
   soldstatus $111,000
6. 1994-09-26
   soldstatus $93,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,831 · $819/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,831 · $819/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$9,831
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,701
• − Management: −$3,701
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $4,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $7,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middle Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619200
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $86,140
• Composite: 52.89/100
• National rank: #1532
• State rank: #217 of 590 in NY

Livability — Centereach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #6174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centereach, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,292
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,292
• Household income: $134,898
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 436.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -633.07%
• Current HPI: 347.7369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+195.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-19 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $267,000 Public Records
• 1998-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,831 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.