2457 Elmwood Dr · West Tawakoni, TX 75169

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2000 0.36 ac lot $192/sqft · 77% above area Est $116k · 40% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * * * INVESTOR SPECIAL * * * * * This property is being sold AS-IS. Owner will not be making any repairs. This property needs a lot of work. The mobile home is the most neglected. There is a room with a hot tub that does not work off the side of the house. There is an open area between the mobile and garage called the rock garden. The garage is large and there is a room upstairs for living quarters. The garage seems to be in the best shape. There is also a small shed on the property that has been turned into living quarters as well. It will need some cleanup and work. There is also an older storage building on the property that is included. The owner is not able to make repairs

Key facts

• Living quarters
• Hot tub
• Rock garden

Tags

• HOT TUB
• ROCK GARDEN
• LIVING QUARTERS
• SMALL SHED
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is under 0.5 acre (approx. 0.36 acre); Will not subdivide; No known restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Septic
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One and one-half story; Property attached: yes; Accessible features present
• Construction: Composition roof; Other foundation; Built in 2000
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Cross-fenced; Grassed vegetation; Private pool with separate spa/hot tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in cabinets; Dishwasher; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (1st floor) — approx. 10 x 10
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Accessible approach with ramp and accessible grip
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL); C B Thompson Middle (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 628 students, 77% FRL); Wh Ford H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 786 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.68%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,827
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -39.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $12,281
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $41,211
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,408/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $650

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $390	+0% $370	+5% $351	+10% $331
Rent	-10% $282	-5% $326	+0% $370	+5% $415	+10% $459
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $388	base $370	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on marketlisting id $70,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-05-16
    historical
13. 2026-03-12
    soldstatus
14. 2025-10-19
    price $70,000
15. 2025-08-26
    price $80,000
16. 2025-06-18
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,408 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,408 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,408
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,074
• − Management: −$1,074
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,563
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$855
• After-tax cash flow: $3,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Tawakoni

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1337
• US rank: #23022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $100,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,408 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.