Bagwell Plan · Houston, TX 77484

$189,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · SingleFamily · 296 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prepare to fall in love with the functionality and charm of the single-story Bagwell. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this cozy home is designed for easy, relaxed living without unnecessary complexity. Store your holiday décor or fishing gear in your included storage right off the covered patio.

Key facts

• Single-story
• Covered patio
• Included storage

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY
• COVERED PATIO
• INCLUDED STORAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $189,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $194,430.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-278/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $167,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,430
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: -2.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30509 Bladnoch Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	1mo	$198,405	$177	94
30514 Wolfburn St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	0mo	$192,295	$172	92
30522 Wolfburn St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	2mo	$189,795	$170	90
30525 Bladnoch Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	6mo	$187,295	$168	89
30530 Wolfburn St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	4mo	$197,295	$176	88
30533 Bladnoch Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	4mo	$198,720	$178	83
30528 Bladnoch Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-5%)	5mo	$192,245	$180	82
30520 Wolfburn St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	1mo	$187,245	$177	82
30519 Bladnoch Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	4mo	$179,990	$170	81
23107 Daftmill Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+8%)	1mo	$239,230	$199	78
30524 Wolfburn St	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,256 (+12%)	2mo	$195,035	$155	68
30505 Bladnoch Ln	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,256 (+12%)	3mo	$217,780	$173	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-37,855
• Equity at exit: $28,990

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-53,692
• Equity at exit: $16,811

Cash invested: $54,441 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,672 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,020
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$243 /mo · $2,916/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,701

Max offer price $191,077

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $44	+0% $-23	+5% $-90	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-89	+0% $-23	+5% $43	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $75	-0.5pp $26	base $-23	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,608
• Closing costs: $5,833
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,990 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,990 Active 293 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,990 Active 292 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,990 Active 291 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,990 Active 290 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,990 Active 288 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,990 Active 284 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,990 Active 283 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,990 Active 282 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,990 Active 279 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,990 Active 278 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,990 Active 277 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,990 Active 276 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,990 Active 275 DOM
15. 2025-08-30
    price $189,990 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Prepare to fall in love with the functionality and charm of the single-story Bagwell. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this cozy home is designed for easy, relaxed living without unnecessary complexity. Store your holiday décor or fishing gear in your included storage right off the covered patio.

16. 2025-08-29
    listed $199,990 Active 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Prepare to fall in love with the functionality and charm of the single-story Bagwell. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this cozy home is designed for easy, relaxed living without unnecessary complexity. Store your holiday décor or fishing gear in your included storage right off the covered patio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,891
• − Property taxes: −$2,916
• − Insurance: −$972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,605
• − Management: −$1,605
• − Depreciation: −$5,656
• Taxable loss: −$3,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$861
• After-tax cash flow: $583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story Bagwell home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates like painting and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and add value to the home.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $189,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Listed $199,990 Zillow