513 Mulberry Dr · Bartonville, TX 76226

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 250 Days on market

Built 1983 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming two-bedroom home offers a perfect blend of comfort and privacy, making it an ideal choice for those seeking tranquility. With plenty of room to relax and enjoy, this property is not only affordable but also located within the reputable Argyle school district, which is known for its quality education. Whether you are a first-time buyer or looking to downsize, this cozy space provides a welcoming atmosphere that feels like home. The peaceful surroundings allow for a serene lifestyle, making it a wonderful place to unwind after a busy day.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 249 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 0.8% in Bartonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,000 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1131 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($181k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-22,905
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,892
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1131
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,069/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $276	+0% $217	+5% $157	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $142	+0% $217	+5% $292	+10% $366
Rate	-1.0pp $323	-0.5pp $270	base $217	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 250 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 247 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 246 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 245 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 244 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 242 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 241 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 237 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 236 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 232 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 231 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 230 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 229 DOM
16. 2025-10-14
    listed $210,000 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    This charming two-bedroom home offers a perfect blend of comfort and privacy, making it an ideal choice for those seeking tranquility. With plenty of room to relax and enjoy, this property is not only affordable but also located within the reputable Argyle school district, which is known for its quality education. Whether you are a first-time buyer or looking to downsize, this cozy space provides a welcoming atmosphere that feels like home. The peaceful surroundings allow for a serene lifestyle, making it a wonderful place to unwind after a busy day.

17. 1996-09-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,774/yr (+$231/mo · 259.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,069
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$221
• After-tax cash flow: $2,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argyle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808670
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $108,516
• Composite: 64.16/100
• National rank: #568
• State rank: #8 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bartonville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1000
• US rank: #17752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bartonville, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 40.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-14 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 1996-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,069 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.