2826 Raven Dr · Elfers, FL 34690

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1974 5,950 sqft lot Est $252k · 24% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. This two-bedroom, two-bath residence with a one-car garage is a canvas awaiting your vision. Inside, the layout provides a solid foundation for modern living. A spacious living and dining room combination welcomes you upon entry, while the kitchen features a cozy dinette area and opens to a comfortable family room—perfect for casual gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Built in 1974, the home retains much of its original personality, including vintage tile work in both bathrooms and original plastered ceilings and walls—details that echo a bygone era and offer a nostalgic touch for those who appreciate classic design. This home is ready f

Key facts

• Cozy dinette area
• Corner unit
• Vintage tile work

Tags

• VINTAGE TILE WORK
• ORIGINAL PLASTERED CEILINGS
• COZY DINETTE AREA
• COMFORTABLE FAMILY ROOM
• CORNER UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (Single Family Residence); Zoning: R4; Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre; Living area reported from public records; Corner lot dimensions approx. 0.14 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with 11 spaces
• Security: Private mailbox
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area reported (public records)
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed patio/porch; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Corner lot; In county location; Near public transit; Sidewalks; Paved access; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.6% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anclote Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 420 students, 81% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,938/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 625% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.06%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2826 Raven Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (0%)	1mo	$190,000	$145	94
2924 Puma Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-8%)	3mo	$274,900	$227	80
5052 Roanoke Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+5%)	3mo	$191,500	$139	75
3111 Finch Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,358 (+4%)	5mo	$250,000	$184	72
5253 Falcon Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+3%)	3mo	$300,000	$223	70
3420 Chickadee Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+3%)	3mo	$302,700	$225	63
5606 Belleza Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+11%)	1mo	$187,500	$129	55
3412 Peterborough St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+10%)	3mo	$240,000	$167	54
5644 Auld Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,466 (+12%)	6mo	$320,000	$218	50
5300 Falcon Dr	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,128 (-14%)	1mo	$202,000	$179	47
5130 Victoria Ln	0.65mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,458 (+11%)	1mo	$279,900	$192	41
2135 Erin Dr	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,116 (-15%)	4mo	$215,000	$193	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,976
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,082
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $455	+0% $402	+5% $348	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $248	-5% $325	+0% $402	+5% $478	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $497	-0.5pp $450	base $402	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2578 Charlan Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	26d	1	0.26mi
5223 Forum Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,990	$1.29	20d	1	0.28mi
2555 Charlan Ct Unit Main Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,301	$1.39	26d	1	0.29mi
2555 Charlan Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,500	$1.53	26d	1	0.29mi
2412 Arcadia Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,603	$1.18	26d	1	0.43mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	7d	1	0.44mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	26d	1	0.44mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	7d	1	0.44mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	20d	1	0.45mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	7d	1	0.45mi
3252 Peterborough St Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,631	$1.26	7d	1	0.47mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	26d	1	0.47mi
3127 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	13d	1	0.50mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	4d	1	0.57mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	7d	1	0.60mi
2620 Cheval Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,699	$1.06	7d	1	0.62mi
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	26d	1	0.74mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	7d	1	0.74mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	1d	7	0.83mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,633	$1.59	4d	13	0.89mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,595	$1.32	0d	1	0.91mi
5906 Elkhorn Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	17d	1	0.95mi
3162 Victoria Inlet Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,375	$1.46	7d	1	0.98mi
3301 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,100	$1.57	20d	1	1.06mi
3336 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	1.07mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	22d	1	1.11mi
4036 Sunray Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,350	$1.28	26d	1	1.11mi
3444 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	26d	1	1.13mi
3639 Madison St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,700	$1.30	26d	1	1.18mi
3439 Clydesdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	7d	1	1.22mi
5945 Mockingbird Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,125	$1.29	17d	1	1.25mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	7d	1	1.28mi
3847 Lighthouse Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,595	$1.39	24d	1	1.31mi
4117 Highland Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,599	$1.16	14d	1	1.34mi
5723 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1568	$1,450	$0.92	13d	1	1.38mi
5507 Riddle Rd Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	5d	1	1.40mi
5507 Riddle Rd Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1600	$1,675	$1.05	26d	1	1.40mi
4132 Hanover Dr New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	17d	1	1.40mi
4022 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	20d	1	1.40mi
4301 Straits Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.5	1284	$1,790	$1.39	26d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $190,000 Active
3. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-30
   historical
5. 2026-03-19
   price $210,000
6. 2026-01-27
   price $220,000
7. 2025-12-22
   price $230,000
8. 2025-11-15
   price $240,000
9. 2025-10-01
   listed $270,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$926/yr (+$77/mo · 142.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $4,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-29.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.