3119-3125 Pierce St · San Francisco, CA 94123

$2,250,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,534 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1900 5,157 sqft lot $496/sqft · 18% below area Est $2754k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

3119-3125 Pierce Street is a four (4) unit apartment building located on Pierce + Greenwich Streets in Cow Hollow. The 4,534 sq/ft building was constructed with large units that have either four or five rooms. Each unit is over 1,000 sq/ft based on floorplan measurements. The top, left unit will be delivered vacant along with the garage, making the building very attractive for an owner-user. There is a garage on the right side of the building with parking for at least two cars, tandem, and will be delivered vacant. The basement on the left side of the building offers two large storage areas. A portion of this space is tenant-occupied, and the rest will be delivered vacant. The building sits

Key facts

• Rear yard
• Large units
• Oversized lot

Tags

• FOUR UNIT APARTMENT BUILDING
• LARGE UNITS
• TWO LARGE STORAGE AREAS
• OVERSIZED LOT
• REAR YARD
• WALKING DISTANCE TO STORES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Four-unit building with three units leased and one vacant
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Two covered spaces in garage; Garage parking
• Utilities: Separate gas meters; Separate water meters
• Home design: Residential income property (quadruplex); Originally built in 1900; Asphalt roof; Capped brick and slab foundation; Three addresses/units: 3119, 3121 Pierce, 3123 Pierce, plus 3125
• Construction: Built in 1900; Asphalt roof; Capped brick and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony/deck; Garden and landscaped grounds

Interior

• Bedrooms: Six total bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Central heating (natural gas); Storage space in basement; Washer/dryer hookups
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $2.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($125k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($30k rent vs $2.25M).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 60 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $30,111/mo this rent would consume 165% of the median local household income ($219k/yr) (locally 883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $200k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $184k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $630k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$320k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $2,250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.91%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,754,469
• List price: $2,250,000
• Delta: -18.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2539-2541 Lombard St	0.21mi	4/4.0	4,350 (-4%)	0mo	$2,460,000	$566	84
3348-3350 Broderick St	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	4,543 (+0%)	9mo	$3,600,000	$792	68
2335-2339 Bay St	0.36mi	5/3.0 (+1)	4,100 (-10%)	2mo	$3,800,000	$927	56
2347-2351 Bay St	0.37mi	5/3.0 (+1)	4,300 (-5%)	19mo	$2,850,000	$663	49
1868 Vallejo St	0.65mi	5/— (+1)	4,877 (+8%)	4mo	$2,600,000	$533	48
3633-3635 Webster St	0.43mi	5/6.0 (+1)	4,250 (-6%)	12mo	$3,300,000	$776	47
3710-3712 Fillmore St	0.44mi	5/1.0 (+1)	4,100 (-10%)	14mo	$2,800,000	$683	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.18% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $1,776,383
• Equity at exit: $1,736,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.03×
• Total profit: $5,059,830
• Equity at exit: $3,473,116

Cash invested: $630,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94123

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 24.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $30,111 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,799
• Tax from tax record: −$597 /mo · $7,167/yr
• Insurance: −$938
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,323
• Net cashflow: $10,454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,878

Max offer price $2,250,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11,727	-5% $11,091	+0% $10,454	+5% $9,817	+10% $9,180
Rent	-10% $8,075	-5% $9,264	+0% $10,454	+5% $11,643	+10% $12,832
Rate	-1.0pp $11,587	-0.5pp $11,026	base $10,454	+0.5pp $9,871	+1.0pp $9,278

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	4	1	$30,112
Total (4 units)			$30,111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $562,500
• Closing costs: $67,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1194-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $2,250,000 Active 1194-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,167 · $597/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,100 · $1,425/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,933/yr (+$828/mo · 138.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $361,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$126,035
• − Property taxes: −$7,167
• − Insurance: −$11,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$28,907
• − Management: −$28,907
• − Depreciation: −$65,455
• Taxable income: $93,612
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$22,467
• After-tax cash flow: $102,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 24,054
• Household income: $218,603
• Rent vs Own: 69.6% rent · 30.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Asian 11% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.18%
• Current HPI: 212.9289
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.17%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+17.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) $2,650,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $2,250,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,167 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.