Magnolia Plan · Sanger, TX 76266

$264,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,571 sqft · SingleFamily · 303 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Magnolia is a single-story home that boasts 1,571-1,619 square feet of functional living space, and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept Smart Series design is built with your lifestyle in mind!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 303 days

🏗️ New construction. The $264,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $332,549.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-682 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#958 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sanger ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 327 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $204,535 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.79%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,549
• List price: $264,990
• Delta: -20.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Bluebird Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+1%)	12mo	$329,900	$207	82
60 N Highland Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+2%)	12mo	$295,000	$183	80
136 Creekside Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-1%)	2mo	$309,000	$199	77
2 Grouse Run	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,507 (-4%)	2mo	$305,000	$202	76
5 S Highland Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,699 (+8%)	9mo	$309,000	$182	76
9 Pheasant Run	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,598 (+2%)	13mo	$319,000	$200	69
724 Dove Rdg	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,441 (-8%)	13mo	$299,900	$208	56
223 Jones St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,485 (-6%)	4mo	$304,995	$205	56
713 Dove Rdg	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+11%)	8mo	$299,900	$171	53
4909-4911 Villas Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,482 (-6%)	12mo	$450,000	$304	49
720 Dove Rdg	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (+15%)	14mo	$369,900	$205	39
111 Arrowhead Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-13%)	12mo	$292,000	$214	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-102,198
• Equity at exit: $49,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-163,910
• Equity at exit: $28,753

Cash invested: $93,114 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76266

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,744
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,988/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,909

Max offer price $233,813

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-453	-5% $-567	+0% $-682	+5% $-797	+10% $-912
Rent	-10% $-844	-5% $-763	+0% $-682	+5% $-602	+10% $-521
Rate	-1.0pp $-515	-0.5pp $-598	base $-682	+0.5pp $-769	+1.0pp $-856

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,137
• Closing costs: $9,976
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3024 Lake Side Dr Sanger, TX	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,245	$1.21	8d	1	0.31mi
5002 Villas Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,800	$1.21	45d	1	0.63mi
5000 Villas Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,800	$1.21	45d	1	0.63mi
5018 Villas Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	3.0	1485	$1,945	$1.31	22d	1	0.63mi
4929 Sanger Circle Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.5	1481	$1,795	$1.21	14d	1	0.66mi
203 W Willow St Sanger, TX	3.0	1.0	1135	$1,650	$1.45	14d	1	0.88mi
909 N 6th St Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	14d	1	1.01mi
4001 Avion Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	1.08mi
4601 Avion Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.5	1589	$1,995	$1.26	12d	1	1.10mi
4807 Avion Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1834	$2,450	$1.34	14d	1	1.17mi
108 Magnolia Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,010	$1.22	26d	1	1.18mi
101 Hillcrest St Sanger, TX	4.0	2.0	1093	$2,195	$2.01	0d	1	1.23mi
1102 First St Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,999	$1.44	4d	1	1.27mi
204 Hillcrest St Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,875	$1.44	45d	1	1.29mi
226 Hillcrest St Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1903	$1,900	$1.00	26d	1	1.44mi
2014 Jackson LN Sanger, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1136	$2,428	$2.14	0d	40	1.48mi
101 Berry St Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	2056	$2,400	$1.17	14d	1	1.49mi
140 Ringneck Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,785	$1.22	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,990 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,990 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,990 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,990 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,990 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,990 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 283 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 282 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    price $264,990 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    The Magnolia is a single-story home that boasts 1,571-1,619 square feet of functional living space, and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept Smart Series design is built with your lifestyle in mind!

17. 2026-01-08
    price $263,990 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    The Magnolia is a single-story home that boasts 1,571-1,619 square feet of functional living space, and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept Smart Series design is built with your lifestyle in mind!

18. 2025-12-04
    status Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    The Magnolia is a single-story home that boasts 1,571-1,619 square feet of functional living space, and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept Smart Series design is built with your lifestyle in mind!

19. 2025-11-22
    historical 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    The Magnolia is a single-story home that boasts 1,571-1,619 square feet of functional living space, and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept Smart Series design is built with your lifestyle in mind!

20. 2025-10-30
    price $262,990 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    The Magnolia is a single-story home that boasts 1,571-1,619 square feet of functional living space, and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept Smart Series design is built with your lifestyle in mind!

21. 2025-10-30
    price $259,990 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    The Magnolia is a single-story home that boasts 1,571-1,619 square feet of functional living space, and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept Smart Series design is built with your lifestyle in mind!

22. 2025-10-30
    price $262,990 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    The Magnolia is a single-story home that boasts 1,571-1,619 square feet of functional living space, and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept Smart Series design is built with your lifestyle in mind!

23. 2025-08-09
    listed $259,990 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    The Magnolia is a single-story home that boasts 1,571-1,619 square feet of functional living space, and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept Smart Series design is built with your lifestyle in mind!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,988
• − Insurance: −$1,663
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − Depreciation: −$9,674
• Taxable loss: −$14,336
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,441
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sanger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839180
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,803
• Composite: 37.76/100
• National rank: #4349
• State rank: #281 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sanger

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #958
• US rank: #16973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanger, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 18,155
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,155
• Household income: $99,425
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 325.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.07%
• Current HPI: 284.2146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $263,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $262,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $262,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-09 Listed $259,990 Zillow