221 Caraway Dr · Mesquite, TX 75149

$178,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 462 Days on market

Built 1963 9,888 sqft lot $138/sqft · 32% below area Est $262k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic opportunity for investors or homeowners! This property is being sold AS IS for cash only (no blind offers). Bring your vision and creativity to transform this diamond in the rough into a true gem! Home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major highways, including I-635, I-30, I-20, US Highway 80, and the George Bush Turnpike. Just 15 minutes from downtown Dallas! Don’t miss out on this incredible potential!

Key facts

• 9,888 sq ft lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 461 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 462 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $178k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 462 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.33%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,365
• List price: $178,000
• Delta: -32.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1924 Spiceberry Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+2%)	2mo	$295,000	$226	92
217 Caraway Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-0%)	10mo	$269,900	$211	90
422 Clary Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-2%)	2mo	$235,000	$187	83
417 Saffron Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-6%)	4mo	$219,000	$182	78
418 Clary Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	6mo	$259,900	$195	78
412 Sesame Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-1%)	4mo	$249,900	$197	77
103 Hamden Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,301 (+1%)	9mo	$226,000	$174	72
126 Fielding Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,279 (-1%)	5mo	$180,000	$141	71
322 Saffron Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,163 (-10%)	9mo	$235,000	$202	65
105 Hideaway Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-2%)	1mo	$189,900	$150	62
203 Fielding Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,452 (+13%)	3mo	$155,000	$107	49
217 Skylark St	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,194 (-7%)	4mo	$159,000	$133	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-27,903
• Equity at exit: $26,540

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-36,621
• Equity at exit: $15,390

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75149

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$466 /mo · $5,592/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,865

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2317 Spiceberry Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,695	$1.30	7d	1	0.19mi
112 Derby Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,650	$1.49	17d	1	0.26mi
2001 Juniper Pass Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1409	$2,200	$1.56	24d	1	0.35mi
2041 Juniper Pass Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1711	$2,100	$1.23	18d	1	0.40mi
2164 Steer Creek Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1409	$2,400	$1.70	43d	1	0.43mi
1917 Buffalo Hill Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1409	$2,300	$1.63	24d	1	0.49mi
1912 Buffalo Hill Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1854	$2,200	$1.19	43d	1	0.50mi
2005 Buffalo Hill Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,150	$1.27	20d	1	0.52mi
2025 Buffalo Hill Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1675	$2,350	$1.40	17d	1	0.54mi
2025 Buffalo Hill Dr Unit 1 Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1675	$2,350	$1.40	4d	1	0.54mi
303 Ridgefield Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1021	$2,095	$2.05	24d	1	0.66mi
303 Ridgefield Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1021	$2,095	$2.05	19d	1	0.66mi
303 Ridgefield Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1021	$2,095	$2.05	12d	1	0.66mi
2722 Spiceberry Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,085	$1.64	3d	1	0.66mi
2641 Bluebird Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	1372	$1,650	$1.20	7d	1	0.69mi
409 Starling Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	1.5	1200	$2,099	$1.75	24d	1	0.77mi
101 Crystalwood Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,090	$1.39	19d	1	0.78mi
926 Powell Rd Mesquite, TX	2.0	1.0	1126	$1,800	$1.60	43d	1	0.97mi
1149 Redman Ave Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,750	$1.43	43d	1	0.98mi
2025 Norcross Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,850	$1.44	43d	1	0.98mi
2632 Sybil Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	988	$1,645	$1.66	43d	1	1.03mi
1213 Redman Ave Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,650	$1.35	12d	1	1.05mi
1232 Redman Ave Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,750	$1.40	43d	1	1.08mi
2703 Oak Bend Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,035	$1.26	43d	1	1.13mi
2708 Briarbank Cir Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,840	$1.36	3d	1	1.15mi
10368 Wood Heights Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.5	1550	$2,085	$1.35	43d	1	1.16mi
10348 Wood Heights Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1358	$2,000	$1.47	43d	1	1.17mi
2707 Judy Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1505	$2,100	$1.40	43d	1	1.17mi
2603 Winter Oak St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1004	$1,921	$1.91	43d	1	1.20mi
9913 Chilmark Way Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$2,255	$1.27	43d	1	1.23mi
2540 Winter Oak St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	994	$1,750	$1.76	20d	1	1.24mi
10611 Woodleaf Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,650	$1.72	7d	1	1.25mi
10611 Woodleaf Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,695	$1.77	17d	1	1.25mi
9911 Crystal Valley Way Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,750	$1.47	24d	1	1.25mi
804 W Grubb Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	1314	$1,800	$1.37	12d	1	1.28mi
3509 Apple Valley Way Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1653	$2,300	$1.39	43d	1	1.29mi
701 Lee St Unit 2A Mesquite, TX	2.0	1.5	1073	$1,600	$1.49	12d	1	1.32mi
1222 S Peachtree Rd Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,595	$1.48	3d	1	1.34mi
9740 Stonewood Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,961	$1.57	6d	1	1.35mi
922 Binbrook Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,450	$1.50	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,000 Active 462 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,000 Active 461 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,000 Active 460 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 459 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,000 Active 457 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,000 Active 456 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,000 Active 453 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,000 Active 452 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $178,000 Active 451 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $178,000 Active 448 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,000 Active 447 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,000 Active 446 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,000 Active 445 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,000 Active 444 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    status Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity for investors or homeowners! This property is being sold AS IS for cash only (no blind offers). Bring your vision and creativity to transform this diamond in the rough into a true gem! Home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major highways, including I-635, I-30, I-20, US Highway 80, and the George Bush Turnpike. Just 15 minutes from downtown Dallas! Don’t miss out on this incredible potential!

16. 2025-05-13
    price $178,000 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity for investors or homeowners! This property is being sold AS IS for cash only (no blind offers). Bring your vision and creativity to transform this diamond in the rough into a true gem! Home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major highways, including I-635, I-30, I-20, US Highway 80, and the George Bush Turnpike. Just 15 minutes from downtown Dallas! Don’t miss out on this incredible potential!

17. 2025-05-08
    status Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity for investors or homeowners! This property is being sold AS IS for cash only (no blind offers). Bring your vision and creativity to transform this diamond in the rough into a true gem! Home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major highways, including I-635, I-30, I-20, US Highway 80, and the George Bush Turnpike. Just 15 minutes from downtown Dallas! Don’t miss out on this incredible potential!

18. 2025-05-03
    historical Active Option Contract 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity for investors or homeowners! This property is being sold AS IS for cash only (no blind offers). Bring your vision and creativity to transform this diamond in the rough into a true gem! Home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major highways, including I-635, I-30, I-20, US Highway 80, and the George Bush Turnpike. Just 15 minutes from downtown Dallas! Don’t miss out on this incredible potential!

19. 2025-02-24
    price $215,000 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity for investors or homeowners! This property is being sold AS IS for cash only (no blind offers). Bring your vision and creativity to transform this diamond in the rough into a true gem! Home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major highways, including I-635, I-30, I-20, US Highway 80, and the George Bush Turnpike. Just 15 minutes from downtown Dallas! Don’t miss out on this incredible potential!

20. 2025-02-13
    listed $225,000 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity for investors or homeowners! This property is being sold AS IS for cash only (no blind offers). Bring your vision and creativity to transform this diamond in the rough into a true gem! Home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major highways, including I-635, I-30, I-20, US Highway 80, and the George Bush Turnpike. Just 15 minutes from downtown Dallas! Don’t miss out on this incredible potential!

21. 1997-06-10
    soldstatus $68,932

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,592 · $466/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,592 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$5,592
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable loss: −$1,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$382
• After-tax cash flow: $1,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,262
• Household income: $70,774
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2266.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 25% Two or more races 21% Black 20% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 345.6606
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+158.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $178,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-08 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-05-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-13 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 1997-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $68,932 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,592 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.