3981 County Route 70a Unit N · Avoca, NY 14809

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,917 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1790 Fair condition 1.25 ac lot $67/sqft · 17% below area Est $155k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home is currently being utilized as a 4-bedroom home. Showcasing 2 full baths, with one being an ensuite bath off of the primary bedroom. Enjoy the views while sitting on over an acre of land. Conveniently located just minutes from the Village of Avoca, this property offers easy access to local amenities while maintaining a quiet, rural setting. Nearby outdoor recreation includes Avoca Memorial Park and Hees Memorial Park, with additional scenic hiking destinations such as Grimes Glen Park a short drive away. Enjoy the balance of peaceful country living with proximity to parks, recreation, and regional travel routes.

Key facts

• Quiet rural setting
• Master-bath
• Over an acre of land

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND
• MASTER-BATH
• QUIET RURAL SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES
• NEARBY OUTDOOR RECREATION
• SCENIC HIKING DESTINATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#735 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Avoca Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #522 of 755 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1790 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,792 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1790 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.14%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,737
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -16.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3929 Smith Pond Rd	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,176 (+14%)	7mo	$160,000	$74	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $45,683
• Equity at exit: $83,658

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $129,112
• Equity at exit: $153,972

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14809

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 638-char remark

   Show marketing remark (638 chars)

   This charming home is currently being utilized as a 4-bedroom home. Showcasing 2 full baths, with one being an ensuite bath off of the primary bedroom. Enjoy the views while sitting on over an acre of land. Conveniently located just minutes from the Village of Avoca, this property offers easy access to local amenities while maintaining a quiet, rural setting. Nearby outdoor recreation includes Avoca Memorial Park and Hees Memorial Park, with additional scenic hiking destinations such as Grimes Glen Park a short drive away. Enjoy the balance of peaceful country living with proximity to parks, recreation, and regional travel routes.

2. 2026-04-20
   listed $129,000 Active 638-char remark

   Show marketing remark (638 chars)

   This charming home is currently being utilized as a 4-bedroom home. Showcasing 2 full baths, with one being an ensuite bath off of the primary bedroom. Enjoy the views while sitting on over an acre of land. Conveniently located just minutes from the Village of Avoca, this property offers easy access to local amenities while maintaining a quiet, rural setting. Nearby outdoor recreation includes Avoca Memorial Park and Hees Memorial Park, with additional scenic hiking destinations such as Grimes Glen Park a short drive away. Enjoy the balance of peaceful country living with proximity to parks, recreation, and regional travel routes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$235
• After-tax cash flow: $1,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with some minor repairs needed, particularly in landscaping. Improvements in landscaping and interior paint can significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown grass and shrubs need trimming
• Minor Landscaping — Some overgrown grass and shrubs need trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Overgrown grass and shrubs need trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Some overgrown grass and shrubs need trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avoca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603630
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,921
• Composite: 42.36/100
• National rank: #6936
• State rank: #522 of 755 in NY

Livability — Avoca

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #735
• US rank: #14018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,921

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · German/W. Germanic 11% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 282.5305
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $129,000 UNYREIS