6718 E San Juan Ave · Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$5,999,999

6 bd · 8.0 ba · 6,123 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1987 1.01 ac lot $980/sqft · 8% below area Est $7371k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in the heart of Paradise Valley, this exceptional estate is the result of a stunning 2-year, $2M rebuild and must be seen to be fully appreciated. Minutes from Fashion Square and surrounded by premier luxury estates, the expansive 6,300sf single level home offers 5 bedrooms, 5.5 baths, plus a den and teen room, along with a detached 570sf guest house. Interior highlights include white oak flooring t/o, soaring ceilings, incredible scale in every room, a wine cellar, smart lighting, pre-wiring for Crestron and Control4, and a chef's kitchen with Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances. Set on a full acre, the resort-style grounds feature a pool, covered patio, sport court, built-in BBQ, lush lawns, owned solar, RV parking, and a 6-car garage—an extraordinary Paradise Valley offering.

Key facts

• 2 year rebuild
• Wine cellar
• Smart lighting

Tags

• 2 YEAR REBUILD
• DETACHED GUEST HOUSE
• WHITE OAK FLOORING
• WINE CELLAR
• SMART LIGHTING
• CHEF'S KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/8.0-bath single-family listed at $6.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38k ($-452k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $553k (90.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $484k (91.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $484k (91.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#123 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($185k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $641k of equity ($41k loan paydown + $600k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$1.03M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($5.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 29900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.47M; list at $6.00M implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $483,716 (91.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 92% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.08% ✗
• Cap rate: -1.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -26.89%
• DSCR: -0.20
• GRM: 103.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $7,371,070
• List price: $5,999,999
• Delta: -18.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5305 N 68th Pl	0.23mi	6/6.5	6,400 (+4%)	4mo	$8,350,000	$1,305	73
5600 N 69th Pl	0.15mi	5/5.5 (-1)	6,062 (-1%)	16mo	$8,200,000	$1,353	63
5287 N Invergordon Rd	0.49mi	5/5.0 (-1)	6,685 (+9%)	2mo	$6,906,587	$1,033	43
5615 N Invergordon Rd	0.45mi	5/5.0 (-1)	6,854 (+12%)	1mo	$4,050,000	$591	41
5508 N Quail Run Rd	0.25mi	5/6.5 (-1)	7,040 (+15%)	13mo	$7,500,000	$1,065	41
6601 E Valley Vista Ln	0.60mi	5/6.0 (-1)	6,661 (+9%)	14mo	$4,800,000	$721	33
6209 N Casa Blanca Dr	0.70mi	5/5.5 (-1)	6,886 (+12%)	4mo	$9,625,000	$1,398	28
6200 N Mockingbird Ln	0.68mi	5/5.0 (-1)	5,876 (-4%)	21mo	$8,100,000	$1,378	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $895,874
• Equity at exit: $5,405,274

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $4,587,068
• Equity at exit: $11,656,678

Cash invested: $1,680,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85253

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 103.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$31,465
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$7,500 /mo · $90,000/yr
• Insurance: −$2,500
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,016
• Net cashflow: $-37,643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $52,487

Max offer price $552,956

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,500,000
• Closing costs: $180,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6708 E San Miguel Ave Paradise Valley, AZ	6.0	7.0	7115	$30,000	$4.22	43d	1	0.15mi
5761 N Casa Blanca Dr Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	5.5	7364	$55,000	$7.47	43d	1	0.36mi
4819 N 68th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.5	4684	$20,000	$4.27	24d	1	0.67mi
4819 N 68th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	7.0	4684	$24,000	$5.12	43d	1	0.67mi
6443 E Malcomb Dr Unit 1558677P Paradise Valley, AZ	6.0	6.5	7265	$21,932	$3.02	7d	1	0.85mi
6032 E Lincoln Dr Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	6.0	6681	$17,495	$2.62	43d	1	1.30mi
6248 E Montecito Ave Scottsdale, AZ	6.0	6.0	6000	$18,000	$3.00	24d	1	1.39mi
4227 N 68th St Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.0	4400	$8,995	$2.04	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,999,999 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,999,999 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,999,999 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $5,999,999 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $5,999,999 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $5,999,999 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $5,999,999 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $5,999,999 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $5,999,999 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-03-07
    price $6,490,000 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Situated in the heart of Paradise Valley, this exceptional estate is the result of a stunning 2-year, $2M rebuild and must be seen to be fully appreciated. Minutes from Fashion Square and surrounded by premier luxury estates, the expansive 6,300sf single level home offers 5 bedrooms, 5.5 baths, plus a den and teen room, along with a detached 570sf guest house. Interior highlights include white oak flooring t/o, soaring ceilings, incredible scale in every room, a wine cellar, smart lighting, pre-wiring for Crestron and Control4, and a chef's kitchen with Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances. Set on a full acre, the resort-style grounds feature a pool, covered patio, sport court, built-in BBQ, lush lawns, owned solar, RV parking, and a 6-car garage—an extraordinary Paradise Valley offering.

11. 2026-02-19
    price $6,725,000 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Situated in the heart of Paradise Valley, this exceptional estate is the result of a stunning 2-year, $2M rebuild and must be seen to be fully appreciated. Minutes from Fashion Square and surrounded by premier luxury estates, the expansive 6,300sf single level home offers 5 bedrooms, 5.5 baths, plus a den and teen room, along with a detached 570sf guest house. Interior highlights include white oak flooring t/o, soaring ceilings, incredible scale in every room, a wine cellar, smart lighting, pre-wiring for Crestron and Control4, and a chef's kitchen with Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances. Set on a full acre, the resort-style grounds feature a pool, covered patio, sport court, built-in BBQ, lush lawns, owned solar, RV parking, and a 6-car garage—an extraordinary Paradise Valley offering.

12. 2026-01-16
    listed $20,000
13. 2026-01-15
    listed $6,950,000 Active 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Situated in the heart of Paradise Valley, this exceptional estate is the result of a stunning 2-year, $2M rebuild and must be seen to be fully appreciated. Minutes from Fashion Square and surrounded by premier luxury estates, the expansive 6,300sf single level home offers 5 bedrooms, 5.5 baths, plus a den and teen room, along with a detached 570sf guest house. Interior highlights include white oak flooring t/o, soaring ceilings, incredible scale in every room, a wine cellar, smart lighting, pre-wiring for Crestron and Control4, and a chef's kitchen with Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances. Set on a full acre, the resort-style grounds feature a pool, covered patio, sport court, built-in BBQ, lush lawns, owned solar, RV parking, and a 6-car garage—an extraordinary Paradise Valley offering.

14. 2025-11-09
    historical
15. 2025-10-21
    price $6,995,000
16. 2025-09-30
    price $7,195,000
17. 2025-09-12
    price $7,495,000
18. 2025-09-03
    listed $7,750,000 Active
19. 2025-02-26
    historical $19,000
20. 2025-02-18
    price $19,000
21. 2025-02-05
    listed $20,000
22. 2025-02-01
    historical $20,000
23. 2025-01-27
    price $20,000
24. 2025-01-03
    price $22,500
25. 2024-12-03
    listed $25,000
26. 2024-08-17
    historical $20,000
27. 2024-08-07
    price $20,000
28. 2024-07-10
    listed $25,000
29. 2021-02-25
    soldstatus $1,470,000
30. 2020-12-04
    soldstatus $2,285,000 Closed
31. 2020-12-04
    soldstatus $2,285,000
32. 2020-10-22
    status Pending
33. 2020-10-17
    price $2,390,000
34. 2020-10-01
    status Active
35. 2020-08-29
    status Pending
36. 2020-08-21
    listed $2,450,000 Active
37. 2020-04-18
    historical
38. 2019-10-04
    price $2,650,000
39. 2019-05-20
    price $2,750,000
40. 2019-04-19
    listed $2,800,000 Active
41. 2016-08-07
    historical
42. 2016-07-02
    status Active
43. 2016-06-27
    historical
44. 2015-08-07
    listed $2,499,999 Active
45. 2014-12-15
    historical
46. 2014-11-05
    price $2,888,800
47. 2014-11-05
    price $2,500,000
48. 2014-08-20
    status Active
49. 2014-08-20
    historical
50. 2014-06-20
    price $2,650,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$336,093
• − Property taxes: −$90,000
• − Insurance: −$30,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,644
• − Management: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$174,545
• Taxable loss: −$581,880
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$139,651
• After-tax cash flow: $-312,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Paradise Valley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #15675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise Valley, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 17,904
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,904
• Household income: $184,979
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.95%
• Current HPI: 416.0855
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1427.1% since first listed

57 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $6,490,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $6,725,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed for Rent $20,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $6,950,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $6,995,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $7,195,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $7,495,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $7,750,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Rental Removed $19,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $19,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-05 Listed for Rent $20,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Rental Removed $20,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $20,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $22,500 ARMLS
• 2024-12-03 Listed for Rent $25,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-17 Rental Removed $20,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $20,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-10 Listed for Rent $25,000 ARMLS
• 2021-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $1,470,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $2,285,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-04 Sold (MLS) $2,285,000 ARMLS
• 2020-10-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-10-17 Price Changed $2,390,000 ARMLS
• 2020-10-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2020-08-29 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-08-21 Listed $2,450,000 ARMLS
• 2020-04-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-10-04 Price Changed $2,650,000 ARMLS
• 2019-05-20 Price Changed $2,750,000 ARMLS
• 2019-04-19 Listed $2,800,000 ARMLS
• 2016-08-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-07-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2016-06-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-08-07 Listed $2,499,999 ARMLS
• 2014-12-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-11-05 Price Changed $2,500,000 ARMLS
• 2014-11-05 Price Changed $2,888,800 ARMLS
• 2014-08-20 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2014-08-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-06-20 Price Changed $2,650,000 ARMLS
• 2014-02-19 Listed $2,888,800 ARMLS
• 2012-09-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2012-08-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-07-28 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2012-07-24 Price Changed $1,700,000 ARMLS
• 2012-03-13 Price Changed $1,750,000 ARMLS
• 2012-02-20 Listed $1,875,000 ARMLS
• 2012-01-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-11-07 Price Changed $2,499,000 ARMLS
• 2011-09-12 Listed $2,599,000 ARMLS
• 2001-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $950,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-25 Sold (MLS) $950,000 ARMLS
• 2000-12-21 Listed $998,500 ARMLS
• 1999-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $660,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $83,790 Public Records
• 1981-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,397 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.