405 Millie St · Longview, TX 75602

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 767 Days on market

Built 1961 0.27 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home!! Open living, kitchen, and dining area gives a feel of a much larger area. Refrigerator stays. Handicap accessible with new ramp over steps that can easily be removed. Concrete carport. Exterior storage room. Roof installed May, 2023. Patio doors. Chain link fence at rear of home. Washer connection in second bathroom. Sale is contingent on seller finding a suitable new home.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#213 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Longview ISD (urban): math 49% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #244 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 767 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 767 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.60%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-12,177
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $845
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75602

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,597/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,100

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
222 Bostic Dr Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,221	$1.03	43d	1	0.38mi
3307 Johnson St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,149	$1.05	43d	1	0.60mi
2115 Victory St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,199	$1.10	43d	1	0.65mi
11 Neal St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,975	$1.48	13d	1	0.71mi
3420 Bronco St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,350	$0.94	13d	1	0.77mi
1109 E Birdsong St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,399	$1.28	13d	1	0.78mi
1115 E Birdsong St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,364	$1.25	13d	1	0.79mi
5515 W Loop 281 Longview, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$912	$0.99	43d	7	0.86mi
221 Leonard Dr Longview, TX	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,395	$1.16	13d	1	1.11mi
221 Leonard Dr Longview, TX	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	1.11mi
1212 Beaumont St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,199	$1.10	43d	1	1.16mi
1123 Chappell St Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,155	$1.06	20d	1	1.19mi
115 Ryan Dr Longview, TX	3.0	1.0	1175	$1,250	$1.06	13d	1	1.22mi
435 Larry Dr Longview, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-02
   status Active
3. 2024-07-13
   price $130,000
4. 2024-05-02
   price $140,000
5. 2024-02-07
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,597 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$782/yr (+$65/mo · 48.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,597
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$106
• After-tax cash flow: $1,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longview ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828110
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,837
• Composite: 39.76/100
• National rank: #3889
• State rank: #244 of 826 in TX

Livability — Longview

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #5287

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Longview, TX
• County: Gregg County · 128,826 people
• City population: 103,792
• Metro: Longview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,671
• Household income: $52,330
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Gregg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,947 people
• By 2030: 126,542 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 127,311 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 127,289 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 124,954 · -0.8%
• By 2100: 113,737 · -9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 30% Black 28% Two or more races 28% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gregg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.5% · R 70.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.6pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+36.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+37.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.34%
• Current HPI: 218.2988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Longview, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — LAAR
• 2025-03-02 Relisted — LAAR
• 2024-07-13 Price Changed $130,000 LAAR
• 2024-05-02 Price Changed $140,000 LAAR
• 2024-02-07 Listed $145,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,597 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.