5403 Mcknight Dr · Odessa, TX 79762

$179,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1957 6,534 sqft lot $135/sqft · 17% above area Est $154k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SO much space and SO much charm! This adorable Odessa home features 4 spacious bedrooms with plenty of room for family, guests, a home office, or all three! The updated bathroom gives the home a fresh modern feel while still keeping its cozy character. Step outside to a massive backyard perfect for entertaining, pets, kids, trailers, future projects — you name it! Conveniently located in central Odessa just minutes from shopping, dining, schools, and entertainment while still tucked into an established neighborhood. Call your Realtor and come see it before it's gone!

Key facts

• Massive backyard
• Updated bathroom
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM
• MASSIVE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built with typical residential construction
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot; Paved road access; Solar energy system

Interior

• Flooring: Tile flooring; Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; Electric water heater; Home comes with a home warranty

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Goliad El (math 18% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 606 students, 85% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.90%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,356
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 16.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-719
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $26,910
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,057 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,285/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,425

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1311 E 52nd St Unit 1 Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,950	$1.38	21d	1	0.55mi
1529 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,200	$1.73	43d	1	0.84mi
6015 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1140	$3,500	$3.07	43d	1	0.98mi
1613 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1122	$2,200	$1.96	13d	1	0.98mi
1202 E 42nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	43d	1	1.00mi
1308 Alpine St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,195	$1.22	13d	1	1.01mi
1710 Wrigley Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,800	$1.77	21d	1	1.06mi
1804 Cord St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	43d	1	1.18mi
3624 Walnut Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1488	$1,950	$1.31	43d	1	1.22mi
1813 Petroleum Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,700	$1.31	21d	1	1.23mi
3800 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	21d	1	1.35mi
1212 E Century Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1359	$1,300	$0.96	21d	1	1.36mi
815 W 40th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	43d	1	1.43mi
6418 Patrick Clay Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,800	$1.75	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on marketlisting id $179,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 573-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    days on marketlisting id $179,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $179,900 Active 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    SO much space and SO much charm! This adorable Odessa home features 4 spacious bedrooms with plenty of room for family, guests, a home office, or all three! The updated bathroom gives the home a fresh modern feel while still keeping its cozy character. Step outside to a massive backyard perfect for entertaining, pets, kids, trailers, future projects — you name it! Conveniently located in central Odessa just minutes from shopping, dining, schools, and entertainment while still tucked into an established neighborhood. Call your Realtor and come see it before it's gone!

18. 2026-05-04
    listed $179,900 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    SO much space and SO much charm! This adorable Odessa home features 4 spacious bedrooms with plenty of room for family, guests, a home office, or all three! The updated bathroom gives the home a fresh modern feel while still keeping its cozy character. Step outside to a massive backyard perfect for entertaining, pets, kids, trailers, future projects — you name it! Conveniently located in central Odessa just minutes from shopping, dining, schools, and entertainment while still tucked into an established neighborhood. Call your Realtor and come see it before it's gone!

19. 2026-04-07
    listed $1,900
20. 2023-05-10
    soldstatus
21. 2023-04-04
    price $155,000
22. 2022-07-13
    price $149,900
23. 2022-07-13
    price $149,900
24. 2022-06-30
    price $155,000
25. 2022-06-30
    price $155,000
26. 2017-11-06
    historical
27. 2017-07-13
    listed $145,000
28. 2012-04-05
    soldstatus
29. 2002-10-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,285 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,007/yr (+$167/mo · 156.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,285
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,975
• − Management: −$1,975
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $3,238
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$777
• After-tax cash flow: $5,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+24.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-06-02 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $179,900 PBBOR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $179,900 ODMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed for Rent $1,900 APPFOLIO
• 2023-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-04 Price Changed $155,000 ODMLS
• 2022-07-13 Price Changed $149,900 PBBOR
• 2022-07-13 Price Changed $149,900 ODMLS
• 2022-06-30 Price Changed $155,000 PBBOR
• 2022-06-30 Price Changed $155,000 ODMLS
• 2017-11-06 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2017-07-13 Listed $145,000 ODMLS
• 2012-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,285 · -49.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.