Spring Cress Plan · Waxahachie, TX 75165

$499,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,518 sqft · SingleFamily · 920 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Spring Cress floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms, three and a half bathrooms, a dining room, a media room, and a study. Lots of flexibility with this floor plan that gives you the option for bedroom 5 with a full bath at the dining room and an optional bedroom 6 with a full bath at the media room. More options include an option media room on the second floor and an optional mini garage in lieu of the dining room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about this and other available plans.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 919 days

🏗️ New construction. The $499,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $536,791.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $500k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $370k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (35.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $324k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in TX, #2,592 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F.
• Waxahachie ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #253 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Felty El (math 60% / reading 50%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 570 students, 34% FRL); Howard J H (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 758 students, 49% FRL); Waxahachie H S (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,963 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1300 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 116d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,240/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 920 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $323,973 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 920 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.18%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $536,791
• List price: $499,990
• Delta: -6.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Memory Ln	0.18mi	4/3.5	3,485 (-1%)	0mo	$519,990	$149	90
214 Memory Ln	0.19mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,558 (+1%)	2mo	$574,236	$161	80
628 Sirius Dr	0.20mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,479 (-1%)	6mo	$534,651	$154	77
182 Memory Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	3,280 (-7%)	1mo	$491,236	$150	77
119 Tetrad Cir	0.42mi	4/4.0	3,479 (-1%)	2mo	$570,415	$164	75
219 Memory Ln	0.23mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,696 (+5%)	3mo	$541,196	$146	72
621 Sagebrush Ln	0.24mi	4/3.0	3,285 (-7%)	9mo	$525,292	$160	68
1132 Apple Grove Ln	0.36mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,269 (-7%)	1mo	$489,999	$150	66
523 Stillwater Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	3,245 (-8%)	6mo	$499,900	$154	58
133 Spring Grove Dr	0.42mi	4/4.0	3,997 (+14%)	1mo	$950,000	$238	55
462 Wintergreen Dr	0.69mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,209 (-9%)	2mo	$545,000	$170	44
309 Western Sky Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0	3,046 (-13%)	9mo	$415,000	$136	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-158,885
• Equity at exit: $80,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-227,075
• Equity at exit: $46,412

Cash invested: $150,301 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.9 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $529,265 ($154/sqft)
• Median days on market: 370 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75165

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1300
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,240 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,815
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$671 /mo · $8,052/yr
• Insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $-1,150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,696

Max offer price $370,347

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-779	-5% $-965	+0% $-1,150	+5% $-1,336	+10% $-1,521
Rent	-10% $-1,406	-5% $-1,278	+0% $-1,150	+5% $-1,022	+10% $-894
Rate	-1.0pp $-880	-0.5pp $-1,014	base $-1,150	+0.5pp $-1,289	+1.0pp $-1,431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,198
• Closing costs: $16,104
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1107 Wheatland Ter Waxahachie, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$3,000	$1.15	139d	1	0.66mi
247 Half Moon Dr Waxahachie, TX	3.0	2.0	2457	$3,500	$1.42	33d	1	0.88mi
213 Nocona Dr Waxahachie, TX	5.0	2.0	2516	$9,750	$3.88	139d	1	0.95mi
204 Bay St Waxahachie, TX	4.0	3.0	2724	$2,600	$0.95	7d	1	1.44mi
508 Bush Ave Waxahachie, TX	5.0	3.5	3269	$3,750	$1.15	115d	1	1.46mi
1767 Shumard St Waxahachie, TX	5.0	4.0	4498	$4,900	$1.09	20d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $499,990 Active 920 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $499,990 Active 919 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $499,990 Active 918 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $499,990 Active 917 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $499,990 Active 916 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $499,990 Active 915 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $499,990 Active 914 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $499,990 Active 913 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $499,990 Active 912 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $499,990 Active 911 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $499,990 Active 910 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $499,990 Active 909 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $499,990 Active 908 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $499,990 Active 907 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $499,990 Active 901 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $499,990 Active 900 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $499,990 Active 899 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $499,990 Active 896 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $499,990 Active 895 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $499,990 Active 894 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $499,990 Active 893 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $499,990 Active 892 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $499,990 Active 890 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $499,990 Active 889 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $499,990 Active 888 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $499,990 Active 887 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $499,990 Active 886 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $499,990 Active 885 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $499,990 Active 884 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $499,990 Active 883 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $499,990 Active 882 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $499,990 Active 881 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $499,990 Active 880 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $499,990 Active 879 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $499,990 Active 878 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $499,990 Active 877 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $499,990 Active 876 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $499,990 Active 875 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $499,990 Active 874 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $499,990 Active 873 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $499,990 Active 871 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $499,990 Active 870 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $499,990 Active 869 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $499,990 Active 868 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $509,990 Active 865 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $509,990 Active 864 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $509,990 Active 863 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $509,990 Active 862 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $509,990 Active 860 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $509,990 Active 858 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,069
• − Property taxes: −$8,052
• − Insurance: −$2,684
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,110
• − Management: −$3,110
• − Depreciation: −$15,616
• Taxable loss: −$23,764
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,703
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a beautiful exterior and well-maintained interior. It's move-in ready and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace curtains — Freshens look for tenants ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Felty El C TX #602/4,322 Nat'l #9,637/41,679 Middle Howard J H D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Waxahachie H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waxahachie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844730
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,434
• Composite: 39.14/100
• National rank: #4034
• State rank: #253 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Waxahachie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #2592

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ellis County · 194,556 people
• City population: 67,417
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,513
• Household income: $86,391
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.58%
• Current HPI: 255.0247
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $535,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-11 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-08 Listed $518,990 Zillow