10094 Elderflower Dr · Pasadena Hills, FL 33545

$447,740

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,326 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $135/sqft · 33% below area Est $666k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home is the largest plan available in the collection. The first floor is brightened by a contemporary open design that unifies the kitchen, family room and dining room. Off the foyer is a versatile bedroom and flex room, while the owner's suite is nested in the back for privacy. Upstairs are the remaining four bedrooms and an expansive loft.

Key facts

• Versatile bedroom
• Flex room
• Expansive loft

Tags

• CONTEMPORARY OPEN DESIGN
• VERSATILE BEDROOM
• FLEX ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EXPANSIVE LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $448k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $393k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Watergrass Elementary School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 865 students, 41% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 933 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 90d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $343,730 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $665,998
• List price: $447,740
• Delta: -32.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32554 Silvercreek Way	0.38mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,327 (0%)	16mo	$720,000	$216	60
32718 Summerglade Dr	0.68mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,417 (+3%)	14mo	$595,000	$174	47
32545 Silvercreek Way	0.41mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,736 (+12%)	6mo	$890,000	$238	46
32624 Summerglade Dr	0.61mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,536 (+6%)	8mo	$549,000	$155	45
7618 Pool Compass Loop	0.46mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,855 (-14%)	8mo	$650,000	$228	44
32502 Summerglade Dr	0.50mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,001 (-10%)	14mo	$420,000	$140	41
7119 Peregrina Loop	0.50mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,658 (+10%)	16mo	$620,000	$169	38
32706 Summerglade Dr	0.66mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,658 (+10%)	22mo	$590,000	$161	29
7836 Yale Harbor Dr	0.66mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,885 (-13%)	18mo	$710,000	$246	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-106,698
• Equity at exit: $66,759

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-162,693
• Equity at exit: $38,712

Cash invested: $125,367 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $549,000 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33545

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 933
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,437 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,348
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$560 /mo · $6,716/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $-379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,917

Max offer price $392,932

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-224	+0% $-379	+5% $-533	+10% $-688
Rent	-10% $-650	-5% $-515	+0% $-379	+5% $-243	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-153	-0.5pp $-265	base $-379	+0.5pp $-495	+1.0pp $-613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,935
• Closing costs: $13,432
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7232 Seedpod Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	3474	$3,450	$0.99	165d	1	0.22mi
7697 Tuscan Bay Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,750	$1.12	1d	1	0.96mi
7648 Sweeter Tide Trl Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	4.0	3761	$4,000	$1.06	144d	1	1.03mi
31470 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,845	$1.16	155d	1	1.08mi
7520 Greenheart Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	5.0	3761	$5,600	$1.49	37d	1	1.11mi
33234 Sycamore Leaf Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	4.0	3531	$4,200	$1.19	130d	1	1.13mi
33234 Sycamore Leaf Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	4.0	3531	$3,995	$1.13	165d	1	1.13mi
31000 Summer Sun Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	2.5	2823	$2,800	$0.99	165d	1	1.14mi
7792 Notched Pine Bnd Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	4.0	3531	$3,999	$1.13	118d	1	1.14mi
30907 Summer Sun Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2823	$3,200	$1.13	0d	1	1.22mi
6667 Depue Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2597	$3,000	$1.16	51d	1	1.25mi
8454 Ender Hills Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.5	2605	$2,850	$1.09	47d	1	1.26mi
8380 Claw Glades Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,600	$1.00	112d	1	1.28mi
33424 Binding Ties Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2597	$2,900	$1.12	10d	1	1.37mi
7726 Bulls Head Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	3393	$2,600	$0.77	40d	1	1.38mi
8750 Ivy Stark Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	7.0	5.0	3648	$5,500	$1.51	165d	1	1.38mi
33444 Binding Ties Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2595	$3,000	$1.16	162d	1	1.39mi
33460 Binding Ties Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2597	$3,500	$1.35	155d	1	1.40mi
30807 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,800	$1.14	90d	1	1.42mi
30807 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,800	$1.14	87d	1	1.42mi
30807 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,700	$1.10	85d	1	1.42mi
8237 Juning Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	165d	1	1.42mi
8369 Claw Glades Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,895	$1.18	126d	1	1.42mi
8369 Claw Glades Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,595	$1.06	87d	1	1.42mi
8369 Claw Glades Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,595	$1.06	85d	1	1.42mi
8358 Hardy Bay Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,775	$1.13	3d	1	1.43mi
31422 Sun Kettle Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	6.0	3.0	3092	$3,000	$0.97	3d	1	1.46mi
30859 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,750	$1.12	77d	1	1.46mi
31811 Sun Kettle Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	6.0	3.0	3092	$3,300	$1.07	165d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $447,740 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   remarks 358-char remark
3. 2026-06-02
   listed $447,740 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,080
• − Property taxes: −$6,716
• − Insurance: −$2,239
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,300
• − Management: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$13,025
• Taxable loss: −$12,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,979
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $16,630–$49,890 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance needs, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace window blinds — New blinds can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodlands Elementary School A FL #141/2,144 Nat'l #1,513/41,679 Middle Thomas E. Weightman Middle School C FL #246/571 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Wesley Chapel High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,222
• Household income: $118,889
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.59%
• Current HPI: 273.0769
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B