4601 Carmen Ave #1808 · Rancho Viejo, TX 78575

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · Condo · 77 Days on market

Built 1982 Average condition $121/sqft · at area comps Est $126k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Alert!!! Cozy 2-Bedroom Condo in Rancho Viejo! Perfect for those seeking an investment in a serene retreat with modern amenities. Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in beautiful Rancho Viejo.

Key facts

• Garage
• Pool
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#341 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.21%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,788
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 3.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $27,656
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $86,885
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78575

• Home prices YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1603 Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.5	1328	$2,400	$1.81	13d	1	0.02mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 2204 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$2,000	$1.76	13d	1	0.02mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1903 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.0	1169	$2,000	$1.71	43d	1	0.02mi
4601 Carmen Ave #1604 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.5	1200	$2,200	$1.83	21d	1	0.06mi
3500 Carmen Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	1145	$1,825	$1.59	13d	2	0.89mi
3500 Carmen Ave #408 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	1.0	1070	$2,300	$2.15	13d	1	0.91mi
3500 Carmen Ave #1103 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.5	1222	$1,500	$1.23	43d	1	0.91mi
2515 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,550	$1.09	13d	1	1.19mi
2101 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,600	$1.13	13d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $129,900 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Investor Alert!!! Cozy 2-Bedroom Condo in Rancho Viejo! Perfect for those seeking an investment in a serene retreat with modern amenities. Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in beautiful Rancho Viejo.

18. 2026-04-02
    listed $137,000 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Investor Alert!!! Cozy 2-Bedroom Condo in Rancho Viejo! Perfect for those seeking an investment in a serene retreat with modern amenities. Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in beautiful Rancho Viejo.

19. 2025-02-13
    historical $1,000
20. 2025-02-02
    listed $1,000
21. 2024-12-24
    historical $1,150
22. 2024-12-02
    price $119,000
23. 2024-10-18
    price $1,150
24. 2024-09-30
    listed $1,200
25. 2024-02-27
    historical $1,175
26. 2023-12-08
    listed $1,175
27. 2023-11-06
    historical $1,175
28. 2023-09-22
    listed $1,175

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $7,552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,812
• After-tax cash flow: $7,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This cozy 2-bedroom condo in Rancho Viejo is in average condition and could benefit from cosmetic updates to the kitchen and bathroom, as well as a fresh coat of paint to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated and could be replaced
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated and could be replaced

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and adds value
• Resale new bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and adds value
• Both paint interior walls — enhances the appearance and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Resale new bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances the appearance and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rancho Viejo

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #7444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Viejo, TX
• City population: 4,728
• Population (ZIP): 4,728

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 36% White 19% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 70% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.34%
• Current HPI: 240.4582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10955.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $129,900 RGVMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $137,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-02-13 Rental Removed $1,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-02-02 Listed for Rent $1,000 RGVMLS
• 2024-12-24 Rental Removed $1,150 RGVMLS
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $119,000 RGVMLS
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $1,150 RGVMLS
• 2024-09-30 Listed for Rent $1,200 RGVMLS
• 2024-02-27 Rental Removed $1,175 RGVMLS
• 2023-12-08 Listed for Rent $1,175 RGVMLS
• 2023-11-06 Rental Removed $1,175 RGVMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listed for Rent $1,175 RGVMLS