Aspen II Plan · South Lebanon, OH 45039

$390,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily · 264 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Aspen II floorplan has it all- from a spacious home office, an open concept living and kitchen area, a large loft, and four bedrooms with plenty of space. You can't go wrong choosing this floorplan! Make The Aspen II your own with the many optional upgrades. If you fall in love with the interior, you will love the elevations on the exterior of this new build home! Entering off the front porch, you can already feel how open this new construction floorplan is. On one side are the stairs leading to your second floor; on the other is a spacious den. Work from home in the cozy den or use it as a playroom for your children. The possibilities are endless! With an open-concept floorplan, entertaining guests or celebrating holidays is easy! You can still be a part of the conversation and festivities while replenishing snacks in the kitchen. An informal dining room can be found in between the great room and kitchen. By adding a table, you have the perfect spot to enjoy family dinners without losing space. As you move up to the second floor, notice the two-story foyer. If four bedrooms are not enough for your family, add an optional fifth bedroom in lieu of the loft. The primary bedroom is every homeowner's dream! His-and-hers closets give you plenty of storage space for all your needs. Upgrade your bathroom from a standard tub/shower combo to multiple shower options. To learn more about The Aspen II, visit one of our Arbor Home communities and speak to a sales manager today!

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Cozy den
• Large loft

Tags

• SPACIOUS HOME OFFICE
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• LARGE LOFT
• COZY DEN
• INFORMAL DINING ROOM
• TWO-STORY FOYER

🏗️ New construction. The $390,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $378,865.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $391k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-425 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in South Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#279 in OH, #4,589 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Little Miami Primary School (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #376 of 1,584 statewide, top 24%, 855 students, 18% FRL); Little Miami Middle School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #143 of 654 statewide, top 23%, 1,279 students, 16% FRL); Little Miami High School (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #150 of 781 statewide, top 20%, 1,445 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $277,604 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.81%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,865
• List price: $390,990
• Delta: 3.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
959 Weeping Willow Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,305 (+6%)	4mo	$352,000	$153	78
1068 Beacon Way Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,200 (+1%)	2mo	$415,000	$189	73
504 Dakota Run	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,144 (-2%)	1mo	$409,900	$191	68
6804 Mossy Rock Ct	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,375 (+9%)	2mo	$415,000	$175	67
926 Weeping Willow Ln	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,004 (-8%)	11mo	$346,000	$173	63
6636 Honeysuckle Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,899 (-13%)	3mo	$370,000	$195	57
6788 Trillium Ct	0.34mi	4/2.5	1,864 (-14%)	8mo	$405,000	$217	54
1201 Meadow Vista Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,892 (-13%)	11mo	$405,000	$214	50
6752 Sandharbor Ct	0.43mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,970 (-10%)	13mo	$342,000	$174	46
1511 Indian Bluffs Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,444 (+12%)	3mo	$610,000	$250	45
7037 Tradewind Ct	0.63mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,000 (-8%)	7mo	$390,000	$195	42
259 Dakota Run	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,912 (-12%)	12mo	$365,000	$191	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $192,197
• Equity at exit: $341,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $618,599
• Equity at exit: $736,051

Cash invested: $106,082 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45039

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,987
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$474 /mo · $5,683/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,314

Max offer price $317,341

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-294	+0% $-425	+5% $-556	+10% $-687
Rent	-10% $-644	-5% $-535	+0% $-425	+5% $-316	+10% $-206
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-329	base $-425	+0.5pp $-523	+1.0pp $-623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,716
• Closing costs: $11,366
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $390,990 Active 264 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $390,990 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $390,990 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,990 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,990 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,990 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $390,990 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,990 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $390,990 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,990 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,990 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,990 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,990 Active 243 DOM
14. 2025-10-01
    listed $390,990 Active 1495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1495 chars)

    The Aspen II floorplan has it all- from a spacious home office, an open concept living and kitchen area, a large loft, and four bedrooms with plenty of space. You can't go wrong choosing this floorplan! Make The Aspen II your own with the many optional upgrades. If you fall in love with the interior, you will love the elevations on the exterior of this new build home! Entering off the front porch, you can already feel how open this new construction floorplan is. On one side are the stairs leading to your second floor; on the other is a spacious den. Work from home in the cozy den or use it as a playroom for your children. The possibilities are endless! With an open-concept floorplan, entertaining guests or celebrating holidays is easy! You can still be a part of the conversation and festivities while replenishing snacks in the kitchen. An informal dining room can be found in between the great room and kitchen. By adding a table, you have the perfect spot to enjoy family dinners without losing space. As you move up to the second floor, notice the two-story foyer. If four bedrooms are not enough for your family, add an optional fifth bedroom in lieu of the loft. The primary bedroom is every homeowner's dream! His-and-hers closets give you plenty of storage space for all your needs. Upgrade your bathroom from a standard tub/shower combo to multiple shower options. To learn more about The Aspen II, visit one of our Arbor Home communities and speak to a sales manager today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,222
• − Property taxes: −$5,683
• − Insurance: −$1,894
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,665
• − Management: −$2,665
• − Depreciation: −$11,022
• Taxable loss: −$11,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,841
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a fresh exterior. Minor updates could further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve kitchen aesthetics and functionality
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve kitchen aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

Livability — South Lebanon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #4589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 196,906 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,335
• Household income: $108,794
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.63%
• Current HPI: 568.09
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-01 Listed $390,990 Zillow