172 Moonbeam Ln · West Livingston, TX 77351

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 186 Days on market

Built 2023 Fair condition 0.40 ac lot $121/sqft · 20% below area Est $195k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute little home located near Lake Livingston. This newer built home has 3 bedrooms with an extra sitting area at the top of the stairs. Nice front porch for enjoying the evening or entertaining guests. Marble tile and countertops downstairs with vinyl plank flooring upstairs.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Marble tile
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• MARBLE TILE
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.5% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.15%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,758
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -20.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3183 Mangum Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-0%)	19mo	$179,000	$141	56
2787 Mangum Rd	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (+9%)	9mo	$290,000	$207	51
3195 Mangum Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-6%)	21mo	$179,000	$149	45
115 Dick	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,112 (-13%)	14mo	$165,000	$148	40
Lot 8 Island View Ranch ESTS	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,131 (-12%)	21mo	$225,000	$199	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,527
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,109
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
446 Lexington Livingston, TX	4.0	2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	4d	1	0.97mi
360 Terlingua Livingston, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,575	$0.94	24d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $155,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2025-12-14
    listed $160,000 Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Cute little home located near Lake Livingston. This newer built home has 3 bedrooms with an extra sitting area at the top of the stairs. Nice front porch for enjoying the evening or entertaining guests. Marble tile and countertops downstairs with vinyl plank flooring upstairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$170
• After-tax cash flow: $1,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs to the foundation and incomplete deck, but has good interior and exterior walls. Painting and completing the deck would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed brick foundation — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Incomplete deck construction — Safety hazard

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Complete deck construction — Improves functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed brick foundation · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Incomplete deck construction · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Complete deck construction — Improves functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Livingston, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-14 Listed $160,000 HARMLS