172 Moonbeam Ln · West Livingston, TX 77351

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 237 Days on market

Built 2023 Fair condition 0.40 ac lot $121/sqft · 23% below area Est $202k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute little home located near Lake Livingston. This newer built home has 3 bedrooms with an extra sitting area at the top of the stairs. Nice front porch for enjoying the evening or entertaining guests. Marble tile and countertops downstairs with vinyl plank flooring upstairs.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Marble tile
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• MARBLE TILE
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.5% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Creek El (math 56% / reading 47%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 522 students, 74% FRL); Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1372 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.15%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,349
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -23.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3183 Mangum Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-0%)	21mo	$179,000	$141	55
2787 Mangum Rd	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (+9%)	10mo	$290,000	$207	49
3195 Mangum Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-6%)	22mo	$179,000	$149	44
115 Dick	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,112 (-13%)	15mo	$165,000	$148	39
Lot 8 Island View Ranch ESTS	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,131 (-12%)	23mo	$225,000	$199	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,527
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,109
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $189,750 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1372
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $204	+0% $150	+5% $97	+10% $43
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $89	+0% $150	+5% $211	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $190	base $150	+0.5pp $110	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
446 Lexington Livingston, TX	4.0	2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	53d	1	0.97mi
360 Terlingua Livingston, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,575	$0.94	73d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $155,000 Active 235 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $155,000 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $155,000 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $155,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $155,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $155,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $155,000 Active 226 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $155,000 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $155,000 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $155,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $155,000 Active 220 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $155,000 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $155,000 Active 218 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $155,000 Active 216 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $155,000 Active 215 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $155,000 Active 214 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $155,000 Active 213 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $155,000 Active 212 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $155,000 Active 211 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $155,000 Active 210 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $155,000 Active 209 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $155,000 Active 208 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $155,000 Active 207 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 205 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $155,000 Active 204 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $155,000 Active 203 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 202 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 201 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 200 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 199 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 198 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $155,000 Active 197 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $155,000 Active 196 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $155,000 Active 195 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $155,000 Active 194 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $155,000 Active 192 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $155,000 Active 190 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $155,000 Active 189 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $155,000 Active 186 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $155,000 Active 185 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $155,000 Active 184 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $155,000 Active 183 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $155,000 Active 177 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 176 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 175 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 172 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 171 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 170 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$170
• After-tax cash flow: $1,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $32,000–$57,600 screening

This home requires moderate repairs to the foundation and incomplete deck, but has good interior and exterior walls. Painting and completing the deck would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed brick foundation — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Incomplete deck construction — Safety hazard

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Complete deck construction — Improves functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Grove El D TX #926/4,322 Nat'l #13,933/41,679 Middle Livingston J H F TX #1,015/1,662 Nat'l #8,646/14,009 High Livingston H S F TX #798/1,632 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 50/100

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Livingston, TX
• County: Polk County · 51,049 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-14 Listed $160,000 HARMLS