243 Shelton Ln · Hardin, KY 42048

$92,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Other public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1989 0.26 ac lot $94/sqft · 27% below area Est $143k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable Kentucky Lake Living! Whether you’re searching for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or a profitable rental property, this home is a fantastic opportunity! Wake up to water views in this beautifully renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home. Inside you'll find an inviting and open living space along with a modern kitchen that features new cabinets, countertops, and appliances. The primary suite offers a relaxing place to recharge after enjoying a day on the water with a new soaking tub and separate shower. Outside there are 3 decks for enjoying your coffee and soaking in the lake views. This move-in-ready home with fresh paint and new flooring offers comfort and style with furniture negotiable for an easy transition. Don't wait to see this one!

Key facts

• Water views
• Renovated
• New cabinets

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• RENOVATED
• MODERN KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.0% in Hardin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#476 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.53%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,094
• List price: $92,000
• Delta: -35.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,020
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $6,085
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42048

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $301/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $92,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $92,000 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-01-23
    listed $99,900 Active 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Affordable Kentucky Lake Living! Whether you’re searching for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or a profitable rental property, this home is a fantastic opportunity! Wake up to water views in this beautifully renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home. Inside you'll find an inviting and open living space along with a modern kitchen that features new cabinets, countertops, and appliances. The primary suite offers a relaxing place to recharge after enjoying a day on the water with a new soaking tub and separate shower. Outside there are 3 decks for enjoying your coffee and soaking in the lake views. This move-in-ready home with fresh paint and new flooring offers comfort and style with furniture negotiable for an easy transition. Don't wait to see this one!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $301 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$490/yr (+$41/mo · 163.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$301
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$834
• − Management: −$834
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $163
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$39
• After-tax cash flow: $1,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 2103810
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 28.62/100
• National rank: #6710
• State rank: #73 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hardin

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #23849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,838

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,647 people
• By 2030: 30,276 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 29,232 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 27,940 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 25,289 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 21,188 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.7) · D 21.0% · R 77.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -56.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.7 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.61%
• Current HPI: 121.572
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $99,900 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $301 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.