1627 E Johns Ave · Decatur, IL 62521

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 963 sqft · Other · 38 Days on market

Built 1912 4,757 sqft lot $16/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

East side - Near St Marys and Eisenhower High School; a few fix-ups and you can turn this house into a great home. The garage has access from the alley. Bring your cash and be ready to sell. Selling AS IS. Seller will not accept assignment offers nor attorney-in-fact. Contract buyer must be the buyer at close of escrow.

Key facts

• 4,757 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1912

Tags

• GARAGE ACCESS FROM THE ALLEY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Unfinished full basement
• Exterior features: Front porch; Dirt and gravel road access; Residential zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($895 rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.5% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $14,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 172.34%
• DSCR: 8.67
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $38,056
• List price: $15,000
• Delta: -60.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.57×
• Total profit: $36,000
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.26×
• Total profit: $80,871
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62521

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $895 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1455 E Whitmer St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	1050	$915	$0.87	43d	1	0.22mi
698 S Stone St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	43d	1	0.23mi
165 S East Ave Unit NA Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$800	$0.94	43d	1	0.23mi
1245 Sedgwick St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	1055	$895	$0.85	43d	1	0.23mi
1304 E Lawrence St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	43d	1	0.24mi
1237 E Johns Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$895	$0.90	43d	1	0.25mi
1718 E Cantrell St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.30mi
249 N 17th St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	700	$995	$1.42	43d	1	0.39mi
347 N Stone St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	43d	1	0.50mi
2032 E North St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	754	$900	$1.19	43d	1	0.62mi
759 E Lawrence St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	1080	$695	$0.64	43d	1	0.64mi
803 E Whitmer St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	900	$935	$1.04	43d	1	0.64mi
2448 E Wood St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	13d	1	0.90mi
1035 S Main St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	847	$880	$1.04	13d	7	1.22mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $15,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $15,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $15,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $15,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $15,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $15,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $15,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $15,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-05-04
    listed $15,000 Active 321-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$859
• − Management: −$859
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $7,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,786
• After-tax cash flow: $5,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 32,665
• Household income: $66,337
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 640.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 17% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.96%
• Current HPI: 180.9274
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — CIBR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $15,000 CIBR

Property tax history

+25.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,049 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.