9461 Beryl Ln · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$224,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,121 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $106/sqft · at area comps Est $237k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT Introducing the Discovery floorplan, a thoughtfully designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 2,121 square feet of comfortable living space. All bedrooms are located upstairs, creating a clear separation between living and resting areas, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living spaces for effortless everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, along with a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $218,240 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,595
• List price: $224,990
• Delta: -4.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9437 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	1mo	$272,500	$128	99
9404 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	1mo	$274,300	$129	99
9376 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	2mo	$234,990	$111	99
9159 Stonebrooke Chase Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	2mo	$277,000	$131	87
9428 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+7%)	2mo	$287,800	$127	86
9384 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+7%)	2mo	$297,800	$132	85
12859 Lime Stone Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,025 (-4%)	3mo	$261,400	$129	84
9340 Hard Rock Rd	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,025 (-4%)	3mo	$254,900	$126	79
9151 Stonebrooke Chase Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+7%)	3mo	$291,000	$129	73
9317 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-14%)	1mo	$257,500	$141	71
9345 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-14%)	1mo	$258,200	$141	71
9480 Hard Rock Rd	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-14%)	3mo	$209,990	$115	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-24,039
• Equity at exit: $33,547

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,981
• Equity at exit: $19,453

Cash invested: $62,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,026

Max offer price $224,990

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,248
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12446 Willis Waukegan Rd Conroe, TX	5.0	3.5	2892	$3,500	$1.21	43d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $224,990 935-char remark

   Show marketing remark (935 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT Introducing the Discovery floorplan, a thoughtfully designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 2,121 square feet of comfortable living space. All bedrooms are located upstairs, creating a clear separation between living and resting areas, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living spaces for effortless everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, along with a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

2. 2026-05-15
   price $219,990 612-char remark

   Show marketing remark (612 chars)

   From the covered porch, you enter into the foyer, where stairs to the second floor are immediately in view. Continuing through, you arrive at the open family room, dining area, and kitchen. A powder bath is conveniently located off the kitchen and family room. Also off the kitchen are a pantry, a coat closet, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, a central loft leads to the primary bedroom, which includes a primary bath and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms-each with its own walk-in closet-share a full bath. A laundry room is also located on the second floor for added convenience.

3. 2026-05-11
   price $219,990 935-char remark

   Show marketing remark (935 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT Introducing the Discovery floorplan, a thoughtfully designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 2,121 square feet of comfortable living space. All bedrooms are located upstairs, creating a clear separation between living and resting areas, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living spaces for effortless everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, along with a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

4. 2026-05-08
   price $244,990 612-char remark

   Show marketing remark (612 chars)

   From the covered porch, you enter into the foyer, where stairs to the second floor are immediately in view. Continuing through, you arrive at the open family room, dining area, and kitchen. A powder bath is conveniently located off the kitchen and family room. Also off the kitchen are a pantry, a coat closet, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, a central loft leads to the primary bedroom, which includes a primary bath and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms-each with its own walk-in closet-share a full bath. A laundry room is also located on the second floor for added convenience.

5. 2026-05-01
   price $244,990 935-char remark

   Show marketing remark (935 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT Introducing the Discovery floorplan, a thoughtfully designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 2,121 square feet of comfortable living space. All bedrooms are located upstairs, creating a clear separation between living and resting areas, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living spaces for effortless everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, along with a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

6. 2026-04-20
   price $234,990 935-char remark

   Show marketing remark (935 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT Introducing the Discovery floorplan, a thoughtfully designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 2,121 square feet of comfortable living space. All bedrooms are located upstairs, creating a clear separation between living and resting areas, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living spaces for effortless everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, along with a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

7. 2026-04-11
   price $239,990 935-char remark

   Show marketing remark (935 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT Introducing the Discovery floorplan, a thoughtfully designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 2,121 square feet of comfortable living space. All bedrooms are located upstairs, creating a clear separation between living and resting areas, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living spaces for effortless everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, along with a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

8. 2026-04-10
   listed $239,990 Active 612-char remark

   Show marketing remark (612 chars)

   From the covered porch, you enter into the foyer, where stairs to the second floor are immediately in view. Continuing through, you arrive at the open family room, dining area, and kitchen. A powder bath is conveniently located off the kitchen and family room. Also off the kitchen are a pantry, a coat closet, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, a central loft leads to the primary bedroom, which includes a primary bath and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms-each with its own walk-in closet-share a full bath. A laundry room is also located on the second floor for added convenience.

9. 2026-04-07
   listed $270,500 Active 935-char remark

   Show marketing remark (935 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT Introducing the Discovery floorplan, a thoughtfully designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 2,121 square feet of comfortable living space. All bedrooms are located upstairs, creating a clear separation between living and resting areas, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living spaces for effortless everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, along with a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,316
• − Management: −$2,316
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $118
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$28
• After-tax cash flow: $3,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a functional layout and high-end finishes, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing
• Both Flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $219,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $239,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Listed $270,500 HARMLS