1008 Luce Rd · Plainfield, VT 05650

$140,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 392 Days on market

Built 1793 1.00 ac lot $68/sqft · 79% below area ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the heart of Vermont’s picturesque countryside, Circa 1793. This serene property is a rare find—with peaceful surroundings and a true connection to nature. Your drive home along Max Gray Road in Calais, VT will astound you with sweeping mountain views. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming interior, with natural wood accents, abundant light, and thoughtful updates on the first floor. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this home offers versatile living space with cozy rooms and ample potential. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your private 1 acre—ideal for gardening or simply soaking in the beauty. Located on a quiet country road, yet just 25 minutes from the vibrant village of Montpelier, VT or Hardwick, VT. This location offers both seclusion and convenience. AS-IS. Possible freeze damage. Seller and Agency have no knowledge of systems. Buyer to verify all data. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a slice of Vermont paradise.

Key facts

• Private 1 acre
• Thoughtful updates
• Natural wood accents

Tags

• SWEEPING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• NATURAL WOOD ACCENTS
• ABUNDANT LIGHT
• THOUGHTFUL UPDATES
• VERSATILE LIVING SPACE
• PRIVATE 1 ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#78 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 392 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1793 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 392 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1793 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.75%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $661,968
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -78.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $42,941
• Equity at exit: $71,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $118,348
• Equity at exit: $116,666

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05650

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,707/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,394

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 392 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 391 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 390 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 389 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 386 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 385 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 381 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 376 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 375 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 374 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 373 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 372 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $140,000 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Vermont’s picturesque countryside, Circa 1793. This serene property is a rare find—with peaceful surroundings and a true connection to nature. Your drive home along Max Gray Road in Calais, VT will astound you with sweeping mountain views. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming interior, with natural wood accents, abundant light, and thoughtful updates on the first floor. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this home offers versatile living space with cozy rooms and ample potential. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your private 1 acre—ideal for gardening or simply soaking in the beauty. Located on a quiet country road, yet just 25 minutes from the vibrant village of Montpelier, VT or Hardwick, VT. This location offers both seclusion and convenience. AS-IS. Possible freeze damage. Seller and Agency have no knowledge of systems. Buyer to verify all data. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a slice of Vermont paradise.

17. 2026-02-27
    price $150,000 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Vermont’s picturesque countryside, Circa 1793. This serene property is a rare find—with peaceful surroundings and a true connection to nature. Your drive home along Max Gray Road in Calais, VT will astound you with sweeping mountain views. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming interior, with natural wood accents, abundant light, and thoughtful updates on the first floor. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this home offers versatile living space with cozy rooms and ample potential. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your private 1 acre—ideal for gardening or simply soaking in the beauty. Located on a quiet country road, yet just 25 minutes from the vibrant village of Montpelier, VT or Hardwick, VT. This location offers both seclusion and convenience. AS-IS. Possible freeze damage. Seller and Agency have no knowledge of systems. Buyer to verify all data. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a slice of Vermont paradise.

18. 2025-11-26
    price $170,000 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Vermont’s picturesque countryside, Circa 1793. This serene property is a rare find—with peaceful surroundings and a true connection to nature. Your drive home along Max Gray Road in Calais, VT will astound you with sweeping mountain views. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming interior, with natural wood accents, abundant light, and thoughtful updates on the first floor. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this home offers versatile living space with cozy rooms and ample potential. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your private 1 acre—ideal for gardening or simply soaking in the beauty. Located on a quiet country road, yet just 25 minutes from the vibrant village of Montpelier, VT or Hardwick, VT. This location offers both seclusion and convenience. AS-IS. Possible freeze damage. Seller and Agency have no knowledge of systems. Buyer to verify all data. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a slice of Vermont paradise.

19. 2025-11-13
    status Active 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Vermont’s picturesque countryside, Circa 1793. This serene property is a rare find—with peaceful surroundings and a true connection to nature. Your drive home along Max Gray Road in Calais, VT will astound you with sweeping mountain views. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming interior, with natural wood accents, abundant light, and thoughtful updates on the first floor. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this home offers versatile living space with cozy rooms and ample potential. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your private 1 acre—ideal for gardening or simply soaking in the beauty. Located on a quiet country road, yet just 25 minutes from the vibrant village of Montpelier, VT or Hardwick, VT. This location offers both seclusion and convenience. AS-IS. Possible freeze damage. Seller and Agency have no knowledge of systems. Buyer to verify all data. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a slice of Vermont paradise.

20. 2025-11-12
    historical 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Vermont’s picturesque countryside, Circa 1793. This serene property is a rare find—with peaceful surroundings and a true connection to nature. Your drive home along Max Gray Road in Calais, VT will astound you with sweeping mountain views. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming interior, with natural wood accents, abundant light, and thoughtful updates on the first floor. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this home offers versatile living space with cozy rooms and ample potential. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your private 1 acre—ideal for gardening or simply soaking in the beauty. Located on a quiet country road, yet just 25 minutes from the vibrant village of Montpelier, VT or Hardwick, VT. This location offers both seclusion and convenience. AS-IS. Possible freeze damage. Seller and Agency have no knowledge of systems. Buyer to verify all data. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a slice of Vermont paradise.

21. 2025-10-20
    price $185,000 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Vermont’s picturesque countryside, Circa 1793. This serene property is a rare find—with peaceful surroundings and a true connection to nature. Your drive home along Max Gray Road in Calais, VT will astound you with sweeping mountain views. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming interior, with natural wood accents, abundant light, and thoughtful updates on the first floor. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this home offers versatile living space with cozy rooms and ample potential. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your private 1 acre—ideal for gardening or simply soaking in the beauty. Located on a quiet country road, yet just 25 minutes from the vibrant village of Montpelier, VT or Hardwick, VT. This location offers both seclusion and convenience. AS-IS. Possible freeze damage. Seller and Agency have no knowledge of systems. Buyer to verify all data. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a slice of Vermont paradise.

22. 2025-08-13
    price $200,000 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Vermont’s picturesque countryside, Circa 1793. This serene property is a rare find—with peaceful surroundings and a true connection to nature. Your drive home along Max Gray Road in Calais, VT will astound you with sweeping mountain views. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming interior, with natural wood accents, abundant light, and thoughtful updates on the first floor. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this home offers versatile living space with cozy rooms and ample potential. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your private 1 acre—ideal for gardening or simply soaking in the beauty. Located on a quiet country road, yet just 25 minutes from the vibrant village of Montpelier, VT or Hardwick, VT. This location offers both seclusion and convenience. AS-IS. Possible freeze damage. Seller and Agency have no knowledge of systems. Buyer to verify all data. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a slice of Vermont paradise.

23. 2025-07-03
    price $210,000 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Vermont’s picturesque countryside, Circa 1793. This serene property is a rare find—with peaceful surroundings and a true connection to nature. Your drive home along Max Gray Road in Calais, VT will astound you with sweeping mountain views. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming interior, with natural wood accents, abundant light, and thoughtful updates on the first floor. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this home offers versatile living space with cozy rooms and ample potential. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your private 1 acre—ideal for gardening or simply soaking in the beauty. Located on a quiet country road, yet just 25 minutes from the vibrant village of Montpelier, VT or Hardwick, VT. This location offers both seclusion and convenience. AS-IS. Possible freeze damage. Seller and Agency have no knowledge of systems. Buyer to verify all data. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a slice of Vermont paradise.

24. 2025-05-19
    listed $220,000 Active 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Vermont’s picturesque countryside, Circa 1793. This serene property is a rare find—with peaceful surroundings and a true connection to nature. Your drive home along Max Gray Road in Calais, VT will astound you with sweeping mountain views. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming interior, with natural wood accents, abundant light, and thoughtful updates on the first floor. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this home offers versatile living space with cozy rooms and ample potential. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your private 1 acre—ideal for gardening or simply soaking in the beauty. Located on a quiet country road, yet just 25 minutes from the vibrant village of Montpelier, VT or Hardwick, VT. This location offers both seclusion and convenience. AS-IS. Possible freeze damage. Seller and Agency have no knowledge of systems. Buyer to verify all data. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a slice of Vermont paradise.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,707 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,707 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,707
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$331
• After-tax cash flow: $3,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Plainfield

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #17758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 842

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 11% Lithuanian 7% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Current HPI: 136.1671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-36.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $140,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $150,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $170,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-13 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-12 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $185,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $200,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $210,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $220,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,707 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.