1634 Road 5102 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$128,800

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,462 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 0.29 ac lot $88/sqft · 40% below area Est $216k · 40% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2020, this 1,462-square-foot residence in the Santa Fe subdivision features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The interior offers an open-concept floor plan with a kitchen breakfast bar, walk-in pantry, and a mix of tile and carpet flooring. The exterior is constructed with hardy siding on a 0.29-acre lot. The property includes a one-car attached garage and a concrete driveway. This property is situated in the Santa Fe Section 3 with access to local community spaces.

Key facts

• Hardy siding
• Community spaces
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• HARDY SIDING
• COMMUNITY SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $890 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,936 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.94%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,537
• List price: $128,800
• Delta: -40.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Road 51022	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-3%)	5mo	$179,400	$126	76
1354 Road 5102 I	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+3%)	9mo	$175,000	$116	72
84 County Road 5102a	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,518 (+4%)	11mo	$268,990	$177	68
275 County Road 5102f	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,646 (+13%)	11mo	$214,900	$131	61
1148 Road 5102	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+9%)	3mo	$275,000	$173	60
14 County Road 5102f	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+12%)	15mo	$165,000	$101	58
274 County Road 5102f	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,646 (+13%)	15mo	$215,900	$131	56
96 County Road 51030	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+4%)	10mo	$277,990	$183	55
885 Road 5102	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,301 (-11%)	10mo	$254,990	$196	45
867 Road 5102	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-11%)	12mo	$249,990	$192	39
6718 Arabella Lakes Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,596 (+9%)	11mo	$356,770	$224	36
44 County Road 5102 A	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,649 (+13%)	17mo	$286,990	$174	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,908
• Equity at exit: $19,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $28,120
• Equity at exit: $11,136

Cash invested: $36,064 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$675
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,956/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $128,800

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $305	+0% $269	+5% $232	+10% $196
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $202	+0% $269	+5% $335	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $333	-0.5pp $301	base $269	+0.5pp $235	+1.0pp $201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,200
• Closing costs: $3,864
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Road 5102 F Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,501	$0.85	22d	1	0.09mi
670 Road 51021 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,749	$1.03	1d	8	0.15mi
885 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	22d	1	0.45mi
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $128,800 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $128,800 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $128,800 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-04-08
   listed $140,000 Active 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   Built in 2020, this 1,462-square-foot residence in the Santa Fe subdivision features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The interior offers an open-concept floor plan with a kitchen breakfast bar, walk-in pantry, and a mix of tile and carpet flooring. The exterior is constructed with hardy siding on a 0.29-acre lot. The property includes a one-car attached garage and a concrete driveway. This property is situated in the Santa Fe Section 3 with access to local community spaces.

5. 2020-12-31
   historical 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

6. 2020-11-30
   soldstatus Sold 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

7. 2020-09-03
   price $186,120 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

8. 2020-09-03
   status Active 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

9. 2020-09-02
   status Pending 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

10. 2020-08-27
    status Option Pending 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

11. 2020-08-03
    price $184,120 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

12. 2020-06-02
    price $183,120 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

13. 2020-04-16
    listed $182,120 Active 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,956 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,956 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,215
• − Property taxes: −$3,956
• − Insurance: −$644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$3,747
• Taxable income: $1,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$332
• After-tax cash flow: $2,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2020-built home in Santa Fe subdivision is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It requires minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance.
• Both Replace carpet in bathrooms — Freshens up the interior and improves rental appeal.
• Both Install new kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for resale or rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bathrooms — Freshens up the interior and improves rental appeal. ↑
• Both Install new kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for resale or rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-11-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-09-03 Price Changed $186,120 HARMLS
• 2020-09-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-09-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-03 Price Changed $184,120 HARMLS
• 2020-06-02 Price Changed $183,120 HARMLS
• 2020-04-16 Listed $182,120 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,956 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.