1634 Road 5102 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$150,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,462 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 0.29 ac lot Garage $103/sqft · 28% below area Est $208k · 28% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2020, this 1,462-square-foot residence in the Santa Fe subdivision features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The interior offers an open-concept floor plan with a kitchen breakfast bar, walk-in pantry, and a mix of tile and carpet flooring. The exterior is constructed with hardy siding on a 0.29-acre lot. The property includes a one-car attached garage and a concrete driveway. This property is situated in the Santa Fe Section 3 with access to local community spaces.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood El (math 25% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 2106 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 118d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,342
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -24.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1634 Road 5102	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,462 (0%)	2mo	$128,800	$88	95
170 Road 51022	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-3%)	8mo	$179,400	$126	74
1354 Road 5102 I	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+3%)	12mo	$175,000	$116	69
84 County Road 5102a	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,518 (+4%)	14mo	$268,990	$177	65
275 County Road 5102f	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,646 (+13%)	14mo	$214,900	$131	58
1148 Road 5102	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+9%)	6mo	$275,000	$173	58
96 County Road 51030	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+4%)	13mo	$277,990	$183	52
28813 Dobra Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+8%)	2mo	$248,390	$158	51
28812 Dobra Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+12%)	3mo	$259,790	$159	43
885 Road 5102	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,301 (-11%)	14mo	$254,990	$196	42
867 Road 5102	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-11%)	15mo	$249,990	$192	37
6718 Arabella Lakes Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,596 (+9%)	14mo	$356,770	$224	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,058
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,430
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 73 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.5 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $247,000 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 96 d
• This list price: 1% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 2106
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,956/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,505

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $190	+0% $148	+5% $105	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $81	+0% $148	+5% $215	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $186	base $148	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Road 5102 F Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,501	$0.85	117d	1	0.09mi
670 Road 51021 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1896	$1,674	$0.88	0d	11	0.15mi
885 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	117d	1	0.45mi
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	139d	1	0.45mi
51 Road 5102 B Cleveland, TX	3.0	3.0	1338	$1,750	$1.31	31d	1	0.54mi
832 Road 5138 Unit A Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	45d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston El Norte homeowners associationAnnual association fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (all primary rooms listed on first level)Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 2020Vinyl sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yardCleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenDishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Convection ovenDishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowave
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $158,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $158,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $158,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $158,000 Active 3 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $158,000 Active 2 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $158,000 Active 1 DOM
21. 2026-06-02
    status $128,800 Pending 54 DOM
22. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,800 Active 54 DOM

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Built in 2020, this 1,462-square-foot residence in the Santa Fe subdivision features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The interior offers an open-concept floor plan with a kitchen breakfast bar, walk-in pantry, and a mix of tile and carpet flooring. The exterior is constructed with hardy siding on a 0.29-acre lot. The property includes a one-car attached garage and a concrete driveway. This property is situated in the Santa Fe Section 3 with access to local community spaces.

23. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,800 Active 53 DOM
24. 2026-04-08
    listed $140,000 Active 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Built in 2020, this 1,462-square-foot residence in the Santa Fe subdivision features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The interior offers an open-concept floor plan with a kitchen breakfast bar, walk-in pantry, and a mix of tile and carpet flooring. The exterior is constructed with hardy siding on a 0.29-acre lot. The property includes a one-car attached garage and a concrete driveway. This property is situated in the Santa Fe Section 3 with access to local community spaces.

25. 2020-12-31
    historical 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

26. 2020-11-30
    soldstatus Sold 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

27. 2020-09-03
    price $186,120 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

28. 2020-09-03
    status Active 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

29. 2020-09-02
    status Pending 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

30. 2020-08-27
    status Option Pending 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

31. 2020-08-03
    price $184,120 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

32. 2020-06-02
    price $183,120 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

33. 2020-04-16
    listed $182,120 Active 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    "Se Habla Español" Impuestos muy bajos sin restricciones. Vendedor motivado. Nueva casa con todos los electrodomésticos en un acre cuarterer. incluido el compromiso del propietario. New home with all appliances on a quarterer acre.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,956 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,956 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,956
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$129
• After-tax cash flow: $1,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,310–$21,930 screening

This 2020-built home in Santa Fe subdivision is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It requires minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bathrooms — Freshens up the interior and improves rental appeal. ↑
• Both Install new kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for resale or rental. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cottonwood El F TX #3,470/4,322 Nat'l #32,906/41,679 Middle Santa Fe Middle High Cleveland H S F TX #1,077/1,632 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston El Norte homeowners associationAnnual association fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (all primary rooms listed on first level)Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 2020Vinyl sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yardCleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenDishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Convection ovenDishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowave
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-26 Listed $158,000 HARMLS
• 2026-08-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $128,800 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-11-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-09-03 Price Changed $186,120 HARMLS
• 2020-09-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-09-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-03 Price Changed $184,120 HARMLS
• 2020-06-02 Price Changed $183,120 HARMLS
• 2020-04-16 Listed $182,120 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,956 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.