5 Santa Barbara Dr · El Cerro Mission, NM 87031

$311,400

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,440 sqft · Other · 73 Days on market

Built 1988 1.01 ac lot $128/sqft · 9% below area Est $343k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on a fully fenced 1-acre lot, this beautifully renovated property offers space, privacy, and versatile living options. The 4-bedroom, 2-bath main home features durable all-stucco construction, a long-lasting metal roof, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, you'll find tile and laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, and a comfortable blend of central heating, a mini-split system, and a cozy pellet stove for year-round comfort. The property is designed with accessibility in mind, offering wheelchair access and a practical, open layout. Renovated in 2014 with permits, the home combines modern improvements with dependable systems including propane service and a shared water well. A standout feature is the separate casita/studio with its own bathroom, located at the rear an

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $311k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-622/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in El Cerro Mission — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#330 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,359/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,881 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,076
• List price: $311,400
• Delta: -9.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-41,408
• Equity at exit: $46,431

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $15,980
• Equity at exit: $26,924

Cash invested: $87,192 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 567
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,633
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,831/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,424

Max offer price $302,237

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $36	+0% $-52	+5% $-140	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-145	+0% $-52	+5% $41	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $27	base $-52	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,850
• Closing costs: $9,342
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $311,400 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $311,400 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $311,400 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $311,400 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $311,400 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $311,400 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $311,400 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $311,400 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $311,400 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $311,400 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $311,400 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $311,400 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $311,400 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $311,400 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $311,400 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    status Active 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Set on a fully fenced 1-acre lot, this beautifully renovated property offers space, privacy, and versatile living options. The 4-bedroom, 2-bath main home features durable all-stucco construction, a long-lasting metal roof, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, you'll find tile and laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, and a comfortable blend of central heating, a mini-split system, and a cozy pellet stove for year-round comfort. The property is designed with accessibility in mind, offering wheelchair access and a practical, open layout. Renovated in 2014 with permits, the home combines modern improvements with dependable systems including propane service and a shared water well. A standout feature is the separate casita/studio with its own bathroom, located at the rear an

17. 2026-04-11
    status Pending 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Set on a fully fenced 1-acre lot, this beautifully renovated property offers space, privacy, and versatile living options. The 4-bedroom, 2-bath main home features durable all-stucco construction, a long-lasting metal roof, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, you'll find tile and laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, and a comfortable blend of central heating, a mini-split system, and a cozy pellet stove for year-round comfort. The property is designed with accessibility in mind, offering wheelchair access and a practical, open layout. Renovated in 2014 with permits, the home combines modern improvements with dependable systems including propane service and a shared water well. A standout feature is the separate casita/studio with its own bathroom, located at the rear an

18. 2026-03-19
    listed $314,900 Active 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Set on a fully fenced 1-acre lot, this beautifully renovated property offers space, privacy, and versatile living options. The 4-bedroom, 2-bath main home features durable all-stucco construction, a long-lasting metal roof, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, you'll find tile and laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, and a comfortable blend of central heating, a mini-split system, and a cozy pellet stove for year-round comfort. The property is designed with accessibility in mind, offering wheelchair access and a practical, open layout. Renovated in 2014 with permits, the home combines modern improvements with dependable systems including propane service and a shared water well. A standout feature is the separate casita/studio with its own bathroom, located at the rear an

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,831 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,491 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$660/yr (+$55/mo · 36.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,443
• − Property taxes: −$1,831
• − Insurance: −$1,557
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,264
• − Management: −$2,264
• − Depreciation: −$9,059
• Taxable loss: −$6,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,467
• After-tax cash flow: $845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — El Cerro Mission

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #26434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cerro Mission, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-11 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $314,900 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,831 · +28.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.