3511 Bain St · Houston, TX 77026

$104,995

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1940 8,511 sqft lot $125/sqft · 17% below area Est $126k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Location, close to downtown

Key facts

• 8,511 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 840; Lot about 8,512 sq ft (0.1954 acres)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1940; Single-story (entry level: first); Facing information not provided
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom (first level); Primary bedroom (first level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Two total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $41k (60.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $41k (60.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,390 (60.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,384
• List price: $104,995
• Delta: -16.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4010 Falls St	0.31mi	2/1.0	890 (+6%)	12mo	$216,500	$243	66
3011 Retta St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	792 (-6%)	6mo	$85,000	$107	53
4313 Engleford St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+7%)	11mo	$139,900	$155	50
4811 Falls St	0.67mi	2/1.0	800 (-5%)	17mo	$95,000	$119	46
3114 Kentucky St St	0.62mi	2/1.0	900 (+7%)	17mo	$177,900	$198	44
2705 Brewster St	0.63mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	6mo	$85,000	$118	42
3804 Lila St	0.54mi	2/2.0	732 (-13%)	11mo	$120,000	$164	41
2902 Gregg St	0.43mi	2/2.0	720 (-14%)	16mo	$153,000	$213	39
3825 Ranch St	0.66mi	2/1.0	774 (-8%)	23mo	$185,000	$239	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-5,741
• Equity at exit: $52,577

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $7,492
• Equity at exit: $85,474

Cash invested: $29,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,070/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $41,390

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,249
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4203 Hirsch Rd Unit 5 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	758	$950	$1.25	44d	1	0.46mi
4111 Cavalcade St Unit 5 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	757	$825	$1.09	44d	1	0.50mi
3019 Florida St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	44d	1	0.53mi
3813 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	24d	1	0.75mi
3805 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	768	$1,100	$1.43	19d	1	0.75mi
3814 Wipprecht St Unit 18B Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$700	$0.93	16d	1	0.79mi
3806 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$700	$0.93	14d	1	0.79mi
3502 Campbell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$800	$1.10	44d	1	0.85mi
1710 Shelby St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	688	$1,250	$1.82	44d	1	0.95mi
5006 Cavalcade St Apt 2 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	541	$850	$1.57	44d	1	0.95mi
3919 Elysian St Unit 4 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,250	$1.92	44d	1	1.00mi
3031 Sumpter St Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$1,200	$1.64	24d	1	1.07mi
5430 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	24d	1	1.17mi
5436 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	24d	1	1.17mi
3816 Gano St Unit B Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	44d	1	1.19mi
5462 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	24d	1	1.20mi
5506 Crane St Apt 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	44d	1	1.21mi
5117 Lavender St Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0	780	$1,040	$1.33	20d	2	1.21mi
5117 Lavender St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	740	$1,040	$1.41	8d	4	1.21mi
5117 Lavender St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	740	$1,065	$1.44	15d	8	1.21mi
5504 Morwood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$850	$1.13	24d	1	1.23mi
5510 Morwood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	24d	1	1.25mi
5514 Morgood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	44d	1	1.26mi
2202 Solo St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	620	$1,200	$1.94	44d	1	1.31mi
4903 Noble St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	525	$1,200	$2.29	44d	1	1.31mi
5414 Pardee St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.34mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	1.34mi
2704 Sam Wilson St Unit 1391353P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,916	$1.91	8d	1	1.38mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	44d	1	1.41mi
2209 Gano St Unit 4 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	44d	1	1.50mi
2209 Gano St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,995 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,995 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,995 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $104,995 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $104,995 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $104,995 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-05-14
   price $104,995 27-char remark
8. 2026-05-06
   listed $109,995 Active 27-char remark
9. 2026-04-30
   historical
10. 2026-04-29
    price $109,995
11. 2026-04-08
    price $114,995
12. 2026-03-28
    price $119,995
13. 2026-03-23
    price $129,995
14. 2026-02-02
    price $139,995
15. 2026-01-14
    listed $149,900 Active
16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-07-09
    price $155,000
18. 2025-07-08
    listed $145,000 Active
19. 2025-04-01
    soldstatus
20. 2024-02-16
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2024-02-09
    soldstatus
22. 2024-01-09
    price $145,000
23. 2023-12-27
    listed $129,500 Active
24. 2023-12-08
    historical
25. 2023-11-07
    price $129,500
26. 2023-10-25
    price $139,500
27. 2023-09-14
    price $145,000
28. 2023-06-15
    soldstatus
29. 2023-06-14
    soldstatus
30. 2023-06-08
    listed $155,000 Active
31. 2023-04-24
    soldstatus
32. 2021-10-11
    status Active
33. 2021-10-11
    historical
34. 2021-07-22
    status Pending
35. 2021-07-16
    listed $52,000 Active
36. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,070 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,070 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,881
• − Property taxes: −$2,070
• − Insurance: −$5,643
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$996
• − Management: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$3,054
• Taxable loss: −$6,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,487
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+101.9% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $104,995 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $109,995 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $109,995 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $114,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $119,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $129,995 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $139,995 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-02-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-09 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-27 Listed $129,500 HARMLS
• 2023-12-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Price Changed $129,500 HARMLS
• 2023-10-25 Price Changed $139,500 HARMLS
• 2023-09-14 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-08 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-10-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-16 Listed $52,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,070 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.