282 Birchwood Ct · Exeter, PA 18643

$40,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 364 Days on market

Built 1987 $41/sqft · 30% below area Est $49k · 19% under $495/mo HOA · 39% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your ideal living space in this Charming 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Mobile Home located in a Friendly & Well Maintained Park. This move in ready home features a spacious layout that is perfect for comfortable living. With its Handicap Accessibility from the Elevator or the ramp, widened doorways, and bathroom renovations, this home provides ease & convenience for everyone. Don't miss it!

Key facts

• Bathroom renovations
• Elevator
• Widened doorways

Tags

• HANDICAP ACCESSIBILITY
• ELEVATOR
• WIDENED DOORWAYS
• BATHROOM RENOVATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 4.1% in Exeter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#392 in PA, #3,546 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wyoming Area SD (suburban): math 24% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #381 of 539 in PA (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.37%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,400
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -19.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
199 Birchwood Vlg	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+8%)	9mo	$65,000	$62	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $10,690
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $32,272
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18643

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $281/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$495
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $943

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $276	+0% $265	+5% $253	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $214	+0% $265	+5% $315	+10% $366
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $275	base $265	+0.5pp $254	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
187 Wyoming Ave Wyoming, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	22d	1	0.34mi
208 Wyoming Ave Wyoming, PA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	14d	1	0.39mi
306 Roosevelt St Exeter, PA	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,175	$1.17	14d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $495 · $5,940/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 362 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $40,000 Active 361 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 360 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 359 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $45,000 Active 356 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $45,000 Active 355 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $45,000 Active 354 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $45,000 Active 353 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 352 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-03-10
    price $45,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Discover your ideal living space in this Charming 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Mobile Home located in a Friendly & Well Maintained Park. This move in ready home features a spacious layout that is perfect for comfortable living. With its Handicap Accessibility from the Elevator or the ramp, widened doorways, and bathroom renovations, this home provides ease & convenience for everyone. Don't miss it!

13. 2025-12-10
    price $49,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Discover your ideal living space in this Charming 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Mobile Home located in a Friendly & Well Maintained Park. This move in ready home features a spacious layout that is perfect for comfortable living. With its Handicap Accessibility from the Elevator or the ramp, widened doorways, and bathroom renovations, this home provides ease & convenience for everyone. Don't miss it!

14. 2025-11-11
    price $50,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Discover your ideal living space in this Charming 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Mobile Home located in a Friendly & Well Maintained Park. This move in ready home features a spacious layout that is perfect for comfortable living. With its Handicap Accessibility from the Elevator or the ramp, widened doorways, and bathroom renovations, this home provides ease & convenience for everyone. Don't miss it!

15. 2025-08-05
    price $55,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Discover your ideal living space in this Charming 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Mobile Home located in a Friendly & Well Maintained Park. This move in ready home features a spacious layout that is perfect for comfortable living. With its Handicap Accessibility from the Elevator or the ramp, widened doorways, and bathroom renovations, this home provides ease & convenience for everyone. Don't miss it!

16. 2025-06-13
    listed $65,000 Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Discover your ideal living space in this Charming 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Mobile Home located in a Friendly & Well Maintained Park. This move in ready home features a spacious layout that is perfect for comfortable living. With its Handicap Accessibility from the Elevator or the ramp, widened doorways, and bathroom renovations, this home provides ease & convenience for everyone. Don't miss it!

17. 2025-05-12
    price $65,000
18. 2025-04-10
    price $70,000
19. 2022-11-04
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
20. 2022-10-05
    status Pending
21. 2022-09-30
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $281 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $457 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$175/yr (+$15/mo · 62.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$281
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,227
• − Management: −$1,227
• − HOA: −$5,940
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $3,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$734
• After-tax cash flow: $2,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wyoming Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4226730
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $48,856
• Composite: 32.21/100
• National rank: #5776
• State rank: #381 of 539 in PA

Livability — Exeter

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #3546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Exeter, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,683

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Scotch-Irish 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.48%
• Current HPI: 259.5339
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $45,000 LCAR
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $49,000 LCAR
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $50,000 LCAR
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $55,000 LCAR
• 2025-06-13 Listed $65,000 LCAR
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $65,000 LCAR
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $70,000 LCAR
• 2022-11-04 Sold (MLS) $55,000 LCAR
• 2022-10-05 Pending — LCAR
• 2022-09-30 Listed $55,000 LCAR

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $281 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.